Matthew's Take
MATTHEW: UFC 111 previews and predictions with percent chance of victory
Mar 27, 2010 - 4:06:19 PM MATTHEW: UFC 111 previews and predictions with percent chance of victory

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By: Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist

Main Televised Card

With some recent changes to Saturday night’s fight card, UFC 111 should still have some good action for the fans, including the much-anticipated return of Georges St. Pierre to defend his welterweight title against British loud-mouth, Dan Hardy. In the evening’s co-main event, Frank Mir eagerly seeks his rubber match with Brock Lesnar for the Heavyweight belt as he takes on “the next big thing” Shane Carwin.

Frank Mir v. Shane Carwin: Though initially this looked like a bad matchup with Frank Mir having faced the best in the business, along with the years of experience and victories to show for it, Shane Carwin is no slouch. Though having only defeated a couple big names, Carwin has amassed an incredible 11-0 record with the truly stunning part being that all 11 of his fights have ended in the first couple minutes of the first round.

I honestly can’t think of any single fighter that has a record like that. Even though the only really recognizable fighter Carwin has beat is Gabriel Gonzaga, the kind of power he possesses is a danger to anyone. For this fight I see Carwin taking control in the center of the Octagon while a faster Mir circles and lands leg kicks early.

Mir can afford to take the risk of being taken down because, even on his back under a big wrestler like Carwin, I still think Frank has the advantage. Mir’s leg locks are some of his best submissions and they usually work particularly well against wrestlers, but the big question is going to be whether he can withstand the heavy handed punishment that Carwin will certainly drop at some point during the fight.

If Carwin can catch up to Frank’s speed and land his powerful right hook then he can drop Mir and force the TKO stoppage late (4th minute) of the 1st round just like he always does. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

If Mir can avoid punishment for the first couple rounds while dishing out leg kicks then he can really slow down Carwin and setup a leg lock submission halfway through the 3rd round. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)

Jon Fitch v. Ben Saunders: With Thiago Alves forced to withdraw from his rematch with Jon Fitch, Ben Saunders has taken a huge step up in competition volunteering to take on the #2 welterweight in the world. Though he’s bigger than Fitch, I don’t think Saunders’ wrestling is good enough to stay standing and Fitch should have no trouble negating the reach and striking advantage of Saunders.

If Saunders can catch Fitch shooting in with his vicious knees or land one from the clinch as Fitch drops for the takedown then he can TKO his opponent early (2nd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 20% chance of victory)

If Fitch can use his vastly superior wrestling strength to take and hold Saunders down, then he wins his usual boring unanimous decision. (Opinion - 80% chance of victory)

Fabricio Camoes v. Kurt Pellegrino: Two grappling wizards face off in a bout that will undoubtedly go to the ground at some point. The big question is going to be whether Pellegrino tries to keep it standing, where I think he has an advantage. Even on the mat Pellegrino can utilize his usual jiu-jitsu strength, though it's very dangerous rolling with the likes of Fabricio Camoes.

If Pellegrino can safely utilize striking on the ground while avoiding submission attempts then he can grind out a unanimous decision win. (Opinion – 70% chance of victory)

If Camoes can employ his jiu-jitsu properly then he has all the skills necessary to catch Pellegrino late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round with a triangle choke submission. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)

Mark Bocek v. Jim Miller: With Miller coming off a big win over Duane Ludwig I see Bocek as a step down in competition and a big underdog for this fight. With another loss likely to send him packing, this fight just might motivate Bocek enough to pull off the upset, though I don’t think has the right tools to best a full-package fighter like Jim Miller.

If Miller can land some good punches early then he can setup takedowns at will and win a unanimous decision. (Opinion - 80% chance of victory)

If Bocek can counter punch while being careful not to get taken down then he can finish Miller late (4th minute) of the 1st round. (Opinion – 20% chance of victory)

GSP v. Dan Hardy: The main event has been analyzed, hyped-up and focused on more than any fight this year but the prediction is a pretty easy one to make. With GSP being such a huge favorite I think the real question is not whether Dan Hardy can win, but if the dominant welterweight champ will even allow him to make it the distance.

The old GSP would have no problem out-wrestling his opponent to his usual unanimous decision win, but the new GSP has stated he wants to show the beautiful side of Mixed Martial Arts and I think we can expect to see him not only stand and trade with Hardy, but possibly even attempt submissions from the top.

If Hardy can simply get in there and hit GSP hard then he can drop him and finish him late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round for a TKO win. (Opinion - 15% chance of victory)

If GSP can do what he always does and keep his opponents back on the canvas then he can defend his belt again with a unanimous decision victory. (Opinion – 85% chance of victory)

Prelims on Spike Predictions

Rory Markham v. Nate Diaz: With Markham already an underdog before weigh-ins where he showed up 6 pounds over the limit, I see him having a lot of trouble with the grappling of Nate Diaz. Though Markham’s never been submitted before, its no question that he will be looking to keep the fight standing where he has an advantage, regardless of Diaz’ height and reach.

If Diaz can get the fight to the ground, even if he’s on the bottom, then he can pull off one of his signature choke submissions late (4th minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion - 65% chance of victory)

If Markham can keep the fight on its feet then he can utilize his better striking to TKO Diaz early (2nd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion - 35% chance of victory)

Ricardo Almeida v. Matt Brown: Another fairly obvious striker v. grappler matchup with Almeida being one of the best submission guys in the world, look for Matt Brown to outstrike his opponent and avoid the ground game completely.

If Almeida can bring Brown down to his world, even by pulling guard, then he can control the fight to win a unanimous decision. (Opinion - 60% chance of victory)

If Brown can use his reach to keep Almeida from clinching by landing hard punches then he can TKO Almeida late (4th minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

Betting Guide:
Frank Mir – Bet conservative
Tomasz Drwal – Bet conservative
Ricardo Almeida – Bet heavy

Fight of the Night Prediction – Frank Mir v. Shane Carwin
Submission of the Night Prediction – Ricardo Almeida
Knockout of the Night Prediction – Georges St. Pierre

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