FACEBOOK TWITTER RSS APP PODCAST Opinion & Analysis : Matthew's Take MATTHEW: UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones event predictions and main card picks of percent chance of victory

Mar 21, 2010 - 10:30:01 AM

By: Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist

For the UFC’s first trip to Versus, the Zuffa brass are coming out swinging with some hard hitters matched up in the main event, as Jon Jones seeks to prove he's a contender by besting one-time similar prospect Brandon Vera. Though no titles are on the line, Sunday night’s main card is set up for serious action with fighter's known mostly for their stand up squaring off in the cage. And with 4 local favorites, Paul Buentello, Duane Ludwig, Eliot Marshall, and Brendan Schaub, preparing with Colorado’s Grudge Training Center, the hometown crowd should be more enthusiastic than ever.

Main Card Predictions

Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: With Gabriel Gonzaga’s recent TKO loss to Shane Carwin from a short right hook, "Napao's" chin is the big question here, especially considering the lethality of punches Junior Dos Santos has to offer. With Gonzaga's only real chance being to get Dos Santos down, dangerous enough considering "Cigano's" training with the Nogueira brothers, look for him to jab and shoot but get peppered with hard uppercuts on his way in.

If the faster Dos Santos can unleash his usual powerful combinations then he drops Gonzaga halfway through the first round for a TKO win. (Opinion - 75% chance of victory)

If Gonzaga can withstand heavy damage and use his weight advantage to test Dos Santos' grappling then he can grind out a split decision win. (Opinion – 25% chance of victory)

Paul Buentello vs. Cheick Kongo: Two men who both like to counter punch will hopefully commit to offense and produce fireworks for the fans. Paul Buentello's new training program with Grudge has him in better shape than ever, but I just don’t think it's going to be enough against Cheick Kongo. Not having to worry about the takedown, this is a good matchup for the taller Kongo and I think he will employ his reach to full advantage.

If Buentello can connect with his looping counters then he definitely has the power to drop Kongo for a late (4th minute) TKO in the 3rd round when the Frenchman might struggle with the altitude. (Opinion - 35% chance of victory)

If Kongo can avoid counter punches while carefully pressing the pace then he can finish Buentello early (2nd minute) in the 2nd round by forcing a TKO stoppage from punches. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)

James Irvin vs. Alessio Sakara: After rebounding from some bad losses to lower-tier opponents, American Top Team fighter Alessio Sakara is looking to expand his win-streak to 3 over a now clean and sober James Irvin. "The Sandman" has publicly stated he is a changed man after beating his addiction to painkillers and I’m looking forward to seeing how improved his game is. I expect his ordeals have only made him stronger and he's going to move his opponents jaw without asking questions.

If Sakara can prove he's evolved by being more technical and avoiding strikes from Irvin while threatening with the takedown then he can land kicks from a distance and counter up close for a late (3rd minute) TKO win in the final round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

If Irvin can wade in and land his hard shots then he can punish Sakara’s notoriously weak chin to force a late (4th minute) TKO stoppage in the 1st round. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory)

Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera: After somewhat failing to live up to the hype surrounding him, Brandon Vera has dropped down to Light Heavyweight and is looking to climb the ladder. Unfortunately for him the new kid on the block, Jon Jones, has been tearing through the division's lower rungs to establish himself as a contender. As dynamic as Vera's kickboxing is, I still think Jones' striking is more progressive and aggressive, which can actually allow Jones the opportunity to make deceptive throws and submissions work in a professional fight.

If Jones can prove himself against his toughest opponent yet by out-striking the kickboxer, then he can earn himself a shot at a number 2 or 3 contender by finishing Vera late (3rd minute) in the 2nd round by way of TKO or choke submission. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)

If Vera shows that experience really means something in this game then he can out-point Jones by countering and exploiting any mistake the younger fighter makes to win a unanimous decision. (Opinion - 35% chance of victory)

Knockout of the Night prediction: James Irvin

Submission of the Night prediction: Eric Schafer

Fight of the Night prediction: Jon Jones v. Brandon Vera

Betting Guide:

Junior Dos Santos – Bet heavy
Vladimir Matyushenko – Bet light
Duane Ludwig – Bet heavy
James Irvin – Bet conservative
Eric Schafer – Bet conservative

Also featured on the preliminary card:
Shannon Gugerty v. Clay Guida
Eliot Marshall v. Vladimir Matyushenko
Darren Elkins v. Duane "Bang" Ludwig
John Howard v. Daniel Roberts
Chase Gormley v. Brendan Schaub
Julio Paulino v. Mike Pierce
Jason Brilz v. Eric Schafer

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