Nov 9, 2009 - 2:42:34 PM By Frank Hyden, MMATorch Contributor
I usually rank Jake Shields pretty high on my Welterweight Top 10, but that's because he's good enough at what he does to be able to beat most of his opponents. His ground-game is good enough to overcome his pathetic stand-up. I think I buy into the hype too much, though.
I don't think Shields is the second-best welterweight in the world anymore. However, now that he's the Strikeforce Middleweight champion, that may be a moot point. I damn sure don't think he's a top three middleweight. I might put him at no, 4, but that's more a product of the dearth of great Middleweights out there. Shields is a good fighter, but he's incredibly boring. I generally take the side of "Do what you have to in order to win," but Shields vs. Jason Miller wasn't very fun to watch.
The best part was when Miller had Shields beat, but Jake got saved by the bell. Some groundfighting can be exciting, but not the stuff Shields does. I give Miller credit for trying to make it more exciting, but Jake wasn't having it. It's effective, but you don't want to make people think they're watching Tim Sylvia's younger brother when you fight.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva was good early, but sucked late. They both ran out of gas after the first round.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Sokoudjou was a nice chance for people to see Mousasi if they hadn't before. The fight itself was fairly good. Mousasi showed some good striking and looked like a champion.
The main event was awesome and lived up to the hype. Fedor showed why he's one of the best fighters in the world. Brett Rogers busted up Fedor's nose with a freaking jab. You have to give it to Fedor; he battled back and dropped Rogers with that right from nowhere. He didn't even wind up or anything; he just reached out and tagged Rogers right in the jaw.
You could make a case that the ref should have let Fedor throw a few more punches before jumping in because Rogers was trying to defend himself, but I understand why he stopped it. It's all about safety first. I'm not a big fan of that. I say let's have it be perfectly clear who wins, but I understand why they do it the way they do.
Brett Rogers isn't Brock Lesnar. He may be better in some areas, he might be worse in some areas. However, I do think you can paint a picture of how Fedor would do against a large fighter like Brock. Rogers is almost the same size as Brock, and Fedor was able to handle it. I'm not saying this proves Fedor would beat Brock, but it does kind of shoot some holes in the theory of the size difference playing a huge role in a potential fight between the two.
I think Brett Rogers acquitted himself rather well in this fight. He didn't win, but I could see him possibly beating Fedor if they ever rematch. Yeah, he'd have to be on his game, but it could very well happen. Brett Rogers proved that he belongs in the cage with great fighters.
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Fedor beating Rogers doesn't paint anything as far as Lesnar goes. Fedor
has had trouble with wrestlers much smaller than Lesnar, ones without the
extensive BJJ program Lesnar is going through. Lesnar is still bigger and
much stronger. This isn't to say Lesnar would win necessarily, but to say
that Rogers is completely incomparable to Lesnar.
Jared
09 Nov 2009, 20:01
I agree about Shields. He performed "well", but I think he lost a little
bit in my eyes. That said, I still want to see him fight GSP. Shields may
be boring, but I think a ground battle with him and GSP would be good. I'm
not sure how much of a fight Shields would put up, but I think it would be
more than the welterweights currently in line (which excludes Fitch and
Alves for the time being since they've already been dominated). I think
Shields is the toughest fight for GSP out of welterweights that he hasn't
fought before, although after tonight, I think GSP would be a heavy
favorite.
I agree that Rogers held his own enough that a win in a rematch wouldn't be
completely unforeseen.
The part I kind of disagree with is comparing Brock and Rogers. I don't
think Fedor beating Rogers says anymore about a Fedor-Brock fight than
Fedor beating Sylvia did. Rogers may be of similar size, but Brock's
fighting style is completely different. Rogers didn't take Fedor down and
implement ground and pound, which is precisely what Brock would do. Brock
is so strong and so quick that I don't think anyone's ground and pound is
comparable. Because of that, I don't think Fedor's fought anyone that would
give an indication of how he would fare against Brock. Brock hasn't really
fought anyone with Fedor's strengths and vice versa, making it difficult to
predict a winner. Obviously any fight prediction is taken with a grain of
salt, but I think it's even more so for Brock-Fedor because they're their
own animals. This is why it's imperative that they fight.
Frank Hyden
10 Nov 2009, 11:20
I disagree, I think Brett Rogers is just as strong as Brock is.
However, even if he's not, strength doesn't matter as much in the cage as
skill and technique. I'll take Brett's stand-up over Brock's any day.
Now, if you guys want to say that you can't draw correlations between
potential opponents based on past opponents, that's fine. I understand and
respect that.
But I come from the school of thought that says that the way you gameplan
for someone is to try to simulate them in practice or based on your
previous opponents. Obviously, each fighter is totally different and you're
not going to get a 100% accurate assessment of that fighter by simulation
or whatever.
However, that simulation might give you a slight edge that you didn't have
before. In this case, I think Brett's strength is comparable to Brock's. I
think that because Brett's knocked several guys out. Plus, he busted
Fedor's nose with a jab.
Jared
10 Nov 2009, 15:43
I understand about simulation of opponents, and Rogers may be as strong as
Brock, but he didn't simulate Brock's style. Rogers is a stand and trade
fighter while Brock is ground and pound. Rogers didn't have Fedor on the
ground controlling his wrists the way Brock did against Mir, and the way he
positioned Mir with his half nelson. GSP doesn't knock people out with one
punch, but he's obviously incredibly strong on the ground. Rogers getting
Fedor with a jab isn't utilizing the same strength that Brock does. In
fact, I think a better litmus test for how Fedor would do against Brock
would be Couture (fighting Fedor on the ground). I think Randy would
simulate Brock's style more than Rogers. Rogers may be similar to Brock in
size, but not in gameplan and skill set, which is why I think this fight
showed very little of an indicator of a Fedor-Brock fight.
Frank Hyden
10 Nov 2009, 23:49
Yeah, but when you're gameplanning for someone, you use someone physically
similar. When a fighter wants to simulate fighting a taller opponent they
bring in a tall guy to spar, even if he doesn't fight the same style.
In football teams dress up a wide receiver or running back to simulate a
Vince Young or Michael Vick. It's not the same, but you do what you can.
You said yourself that this fight showed very little of what might happen
in a Fedor-Brock fight. The thing is, and this is my point, that very
little just might be the difference that helps Fedor win.
These guys are elite athletes. The difference between winning and losing is
pretty small. They have to use every single advantage they can, no matter
how little.
Jared
11 Nov 2009, 02:15
But isn't the point of using someone that's physically similar to have them
simulate the opponent? If Rogers trained with Fedor and simulated Brock,
that would be beneficial. Or even if Fedor brought in Bob Sapp or some
other behemoth that would lay on top of him. But I don't see how sparring
with a big guy helps you in wrestling a big guy.
That said, you may very well be right. I guess it would depend on what
Fedor feels. But my personal opinion is that simulation only gets you so
far anyway. For example, keeping with your football theme, how many people
can come close to simulating Randy Moss? I'd say maybe two, Larry
Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. You could burn through 100 guys that are 6'4"
210 lbs., and you're never going to truly simulate Moss (not saying that's
what you're saying, but just saying in general). And simulating Moss at RB
would do nothing, which is what I feel like the equivalent of Fedor-Rogers.
Plugging someone with a similar body type in a different situation gets you
even less. Rogers simulating Brock would only get you so far anyway, but it
gets you even less when his simulation isn't accurate of Brock's strengths.
Frank Hyden
11 Nov 2009, 11:38
Oh, there's no question you're right about this. This simulation stuff
doesn't get you much. When I say it gives you a slight advantage, I'm
talking it might give you a 1% or 2% better chance of winning. The only
reason you do it is that you're going to put it in the work anyway, so why
not do something that might give you a slightly better shot.
There's only so many guys out there who are as big or strong as Brock, I
guess you take what you can.
Jared
11 Nov 2009, 14:14
Yeah, I see what you're saying. The only thing that doesn't help is if this
fight never happens. I think Carwin, Nogueira, and maybe Velasquez are
interesting challenges for Brock, but the only one I see seriously
challenging him (as in a guaranteed challenge) is Fedor, and vice versa.
Hopefully it doesn't turn into Liddell-Silva where it happens a little too
late, if it even happens at all. Hopefully Lesnar-Fedor doesn't join
Liddell-Silva and Machida-A. Silva as fights that never happen in their
prime or at all.
Frank Hyden
12 Nov 2009, 12:08
I really hope a Fedor-Brock fight comes about. I'd love to see a
cross-promotion between Strikeforce and UFC. The likelihood of that
happening is incredibly small, but I can dream.
