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By Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson- I'm expecting a big ground battle between these two. Neither guy has a great stand-up game. Stevenson was perplexing in his last fight, against Diego Sanchez, because he hardly threw any kicks. He also made some rudimentary boxing mistakes, like going straight back on defense and not utilizing good head movement. That shouldn't be too big of a problem against Diaz, who doesn't really pose much danger with his punches or kicks. Stevenson's stand-up is much better than Nate's, it's a question of whether or not he'll force Diaz to fight on his feet. Nate should have problems getting Stevenson to the ground, but I think Joe might want to take the fight there to use his ground and pound. I think both guys will be able to counter the other and not get caught, but I give the slight edge to Stevenson.
Prediction- Stevenson by TKO in the 3rd round
Damarques Johnson vs. James Wilks- Damarques has a record of 9-6 in MMA. However, 4 of those losses came in his first 6 fights, when he was just starting out. Damarques has won 7 of his last 9 fights, and I think he continues his winning ways. James has a 5-2 mark, but I think Damarques will bring just a bit more. Both guys were fairly impressive this season, and I won't be shocked if James wins. However, I've just been more impressed with Damarques and the way he's won. I think it'll be a close fight, but Damarques pulls it out.
Prediction- Johnson by Submission in the 2nd round
Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner- This is another close fight. The more I think about it, the more I give the edge to Winner. Pearson couldn't finish Jason Dent, while Winner submitted Cameron Dollar. I also can't shake the feeling that Pearson's shoulder is going to play a factor in this fight. It may cause Ross to hesitate at a crucial moment, or it may pop out and end the fight early. I'm really hoping we don't see a repeat of Manny Gamburyan vs. Nate Diaz at TUF 5, where Manny's shoulder went out and he was forced to quit. I always hate non-decisive finishes and I hope we don't get one here. Even without the possibility of Pearson's shoulder giving out, I would still have to go with Winner. He's shown more this season and I think he wins a close one.
Prediction- Winner by Decision
Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez- It's no secret that I think Diego is overhyped, relative to his performance in the octagon. I think Diego's a really good fighter, though. The secret to his fighting style is that he outworks his opponent. He rarely stays still for more than a few seconds, and he's always attacking. That can be hard for guys to counter. The problem is, that won't work on Clay Guida. No one has a motor like Guida. Couple that with Diego fighting at Lightweight again and that spells trouble. The cut for Diego to get to 155 lbs. is a hard one. That surely will sap some of his energy, Diego's number one tool. I don't think Guida will get a submission or knockout, but he should be able to win with his wrestling and get the decision victory. The fight might be interesting, but it has a higher chance of being boring or merely average.
Prediction- Guida by Decision
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