Hyden's Take
HYDEN BLOG: Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez, and Randy Couture on Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen
Oct 31, 2012 - 10:50:34 AM HYDEN BLOG: Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez, and Randy Couture on Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen

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By: Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor

Junior dos Santos knocked out Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds last year to win the UFC Heavyweight title. Both guys were hurt going in to the fight, which probably affected the fight but not to the degree that a lot of Velasquez fans are hoping it did. Anything can happen, of course, but I just can't see Cain beating JDS. On their feet, dos Santos has the clear advantage. No question that Cain is a good striker, but JDS is a great striker. Velasquez has the advantage wrestling, but what happens after he takes dos Santos down? Both guys are skilled on the ground so it'll be very hard for Cain to finish JDS.

When I'm looking at a rematch, I always strongly consider what is different this time. What has changed since the last fight? In this case, I don't think much has changed. After losing to dos Santos, Velasquez beat Antonio Silva. Cain looked great in that fight, just as he did in all his previous fights before JDS. However, he didn't do anything that he hadn't already shown. It's true that Cain was hurt going into the fight with JDS, but dos Santos was also hurt. What's different this time? What's changed since the last fight? I don't think anything's changed so I would predict a similar outcome as last time. The only difference is that I think JDS wins by TKO in the second round this time.

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Randy Couture made news last week when he was asked in an interview about the Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen fight next April. Couture said that if Sonnen can make it a wrestling match then he can win. I really respect Randy as a fighter and I put a lot of stock in his opinions. However, I think he's off-base here. Either that or he's just being super-diplomatic. Jones is a good wrestler. Sonnen may be a better wrestler, but he's fighting an uphill battle. Jones has more reach, more strength, and has good cardio. Jones has also shown an ability to combat good wrestlers and neutralize them, as he showed against Rashad Evans.

Sonnen has to lay-and-pray against Jones if he wants to beat him. He has to try to replicate his first fight with Anderson Silva. It's going to be extremely hard, bordering on impossible, for Sonnen to smother Jones for a full 5 rounds. Sonnen is going to have to make Jones wear him like a suit for 25 minutes. If there is any separation for even 30 seconds it's likely to spell doom for Sonnen. The second round of the second fight between Silva and Sonnen is what is going to happen if there's any separation between the two.

Jones isn't going to toy with Sonnen, he's going to come firing out of the chute looking to destroy him. He's not going to come rushing forward like a maniac, even though he could because Sonnen is a rudimentary striker at best. No, Jones is going to dictate the terms of this fight and he's going to want to send a message that Sonnen doesn't belong in the same cage with him. The fact that Sonnen doesn't belong in the cage with Jones only adds to the likelihood that we see a major league ass-whipping in April.

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Junior dos Santos has had two interesting comments recently. One I agree with and one I don't. The statement I don't agree with is dos Santos saying that he could beat Wladimir Klitschko. I do not agree with that at all. I appreciate a guy having confidence in his own ability, but he's talking about a world champion. I know boxing is way down from where it used to be, but it's still a bit much to say that you could beat a world champion. I think it would be an interesting fight, but you have to give credit where it's due.

The thing I do agree with that JDS said was that he's got a very good ground game. JDS can submit people, he doesn't get the credit there that he deserves. He hasn't had to submit anybody, but that doesn't mean that he can't. As I said above, if Velasquez takes JDS down he's in for a battle because he might get submitted. It'll be interesting to see if Cain decides that he wants to stand with JDS or take him down and try to ground-and-pound him out.


Comments and suggestions can be e-mailed to me at hydenfrank@gmail.com