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UFC 110 PREVIEW: Matthew's fight-by-fight preview with percentage chance of victory predictions
Feb 19, 2010 - 5:23:24 AM UFC 110 PREVIEW: Matthew's fight-by-fight preview with percentage chance of victory predictions

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By Sam Matthew, MMATorch Columnist

After a lackluster UFC 109 card complete with boring wrestling matches and decision victories, UFC 110 looks to stun an international audience with Zuffa's first trip to the Outback. While no title fights are on the line, the card does feature some of the most exciting up-and-coming fighters, including some local Australian talent. The majority of these fights are very evenly matched, which makes for great action but tough predictions.

MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez: In a contender battle for a shot at newly returned Heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar, the veteran Nogueira looks to prove he's still one of the best in the world by stopping the meteoric rise of undefeated Cain Velasquez. Even though most bookies have Velasquez as a slight favorite, I think this is a good matchup for Minotauro.

With Nogueira's strength being his strong Jiu-Jitsu background, I doubt Cain is going to want to fall back on his wrestling base and take it to the ground. That being said, fans can expect a standup war, and though Cain has wicked power, I truly believe that the older Nogueira twin has some of the sports most underrated striking prowess. Training with Cuban Olympians, his boxing is crisp and technical, and I think he has the speed and skill to avoid most of what Cain will throw, and the durability to weather through the few hard shots that land.

If the wily old dog Nogueira can outbox his less-experienced opponent, then he can drop him, take the wrestler's back and finish late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round with one of his signature choke submissions. (Opinion – 70% chance of victory)

If Velasquez steps his game up to face his toughest opponent ever and lands a bomb, then he can finish with his powerful ground and pound for a late (4th minute) TKO victory in the third. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping: After a stunning win over Denis Kang, British fan favorite Michael Bisping looks to earn himself a title shot with a win over Pride legend Wanderlei Silva. Both fighters are highly respected strikers and this has the potential for some crazy exchanges on the feet.

Though I have always been a huge fan of Silva and his offensive Muay Thai style, I'm afraid his recent performances have convinced me that he probably should have retired a year ago. I'll still be rooting for him in this one but if he doesn't hammer Bisping early then his cardio will be a big question because of his age and first serious weight cut. Bisping has the proper technical kickboxing skills to get in and get out while both doing damage and frustrating Silva, who is known for his straight-forward aggression.

If Bisping can stick and move then he can out-strike Silva and wear him down but not finish him to earn a unanimous decision win. (Opinion - 60% chance of victory)

If Silva can put some lateral movement into his standup instead of just wading straight in then he can catch a quicker Bisping while circling with one of his massive hooks, just like Hendo did, for an early (1st minute) KO in the 2nd round. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropolous: These are two established grapplers who I wouldn't mind seeing roll for the entire fight. Both fighters have the necessary tools to win and what I like most is that both fighters actually try to finish with submissions, instead of just laying on top of their opponents. Of course this could result in a standup war which would be interesting, though hopefully more so than Dan Miller vs. Demian Maia was. Joe has more experience and I would normally give him the advantage except that Sotiropolous is fighting at home and looking to bring some legitimacy to Australian MMA.

If Sotiropolous can integrate some elbows into his ground game then he can cut Joe from either top or bottom position to throw the American off his game (just like Florian and Penn have done) and win a unanimous decision at home. (Opinion – 55% chance of victory)

If Joe can use his grappling skills and sheer power to stop submission attempts and threaten with his signature guillotines and leg locks from the bottom, then he can catch the Aussie early (2nd minute) of the 2nd round with one of those trademark submissions. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader: Keith Jardine looks to keep his career going with an upset over undefeated Ryan Bader. Jardine's awkward style makes it hard to ever bet against him but I think Bader may be the next big thing in the light heavyweight division. Look for Bader to avoid the crafty strikes and leg kicks of Jardine with takedowns and ground n pound.

If Jardine can keep it standing and land his nasty leg kicks then he will take away the shooting ability of Bader to setup strong uppercuts and hooks that result in a late (3rd minute) TKO stoppage in the 3rd. (Opinion – 35% chance of victory)

If Bader can use his wrestling skills to take Jardine down then he can control from the top with sporadic ground and pound to win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 65% chance of victory)

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Ben Rothwell: Big Ben seeks to prove he belongs in the UFC with a win over the legendary Cro Cop. This should be an absolute war on the feet as both guys like to brawl and I don't see it going past the second round as neither fighter has good cardio. This is also definitely a ‘Win or go home' battle, especially in light of all the recent cuts the UFC has made. A taller Rothwell may be out of reach from the high kick so look for Cro Cop to land leg and body kicks to slow down his larger opponent.

If Big Ben can take Cro Cop out of his element and put his back on the canvas then he can keep the fight there by using his weight advantage to stay on top and win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory)

If Cro Cop can land his viciously powerful kicks to the legs and body of his bigger opponent then he wears Ben down to setup punches to the head for a TKO finish late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion – 60% chance of victory) [EDIT: This fight has been cancelled due to Rothwell being ill.]

Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman: Two native Aussies compete for national pride and seek to prove to themselves that they still belong in the cage. Neither man has fought for a couple years but Sinosic has competed (and lost) against bigger names so I give him the slight edge.

If Sinosic can keep it standing then he can use his significant reach advantage to win a TKO victory from punches late (4th minute) of the 2nd round. (Opinion 60% chance of victory)

If Haseman can duck under his opponents punches to neutralize the height advantage then he can eek out a unanimous decision from the top. (Opinion – 40% chance of victory) [EDIT: This fight has been cancelled due to Sinocic being ill.]

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski: Though Coleman highlighted some weaknesses in Bonnar's wrestling game, he still has some underrated submission skills and I hope he's been working on them because Soszynski is another diesel wrestler who is looking to win a judges decision.

If Bonnar can use his Jiu-Jitsu to threaten from the bottom while landing combos when the fight is standing then he can win a split decision. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)

If Soszynski uses his wrestling and strength to hold down Bonnar while powering through submissions then he can walk away with the unanimous decision. (Opinion 55% chance of victory)

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster: Coming off a big upset over Brock Larson, Brian Foster will be looking to take Lytle down because anyone who opts to stand with the wily veteran gets hurt.

If Lytle can keep it standing then he peppers Foster with heavy hands to earn an early (2nd minute) TKO stoppage in the 2nd round. (Opinion 75% chance of victory)

If Foster can land a couple good shots on the feet then he can duck under the wild looping hooks of Lytle and control from top to earn the unanimous decision. (Opinion – 25% chance of victory)

Goran Reljic vs. C.B. Dollaway: Reljic has incredibly vicious kicks and punches so Dolloway has to be looking to take the fight down, even though his ground game has been his greatest weakness in the past.

If Dollaway can take the fight to the ground then he can win a unanimous decision. (Opinion – 30% chance of victory)

If Reljic is in good shape and sets up his high kicks with punches and body shots early, then he can Knockout Dollaway late (3rd minute) of the 2nd round with a head kick. (Opinion 70% chance of victory)

James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac: Both fighters like to strike so this is yet another potential standup war for the fans.

If the New Zealand native Te Huna can land some hard shots then he finishes his opponent late (4th minute) in the 2nd round with a TKO victory. (Opinion - 55% chance of victory)

If Pokrajac's training with Cro Cop pays off and he lands some good counters then he can drop Te Huna for a TKO win early (2nd minute) in the 3rd. (Opinion – 45% chance of victory)

[Antonio Nogueira art credit Cory Gould (c) MMATorch]