Sep 18, 2009 - 7:08:18 PM By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
Boxing and MMA's big guns are going head to head, with Floyd Mayweather's return to the squared circle hoping to upstage Vitor Belfort's return to the Octagon. On name value alone, the edge has to go to boxing, but the UFC has launched a branding campaign the likes of which haven't been seen since Band-Aid. If Dana White and Co. can come out on top tomorrow night, it may be time to anoint them bulletproof.
That's not to say that UFC 103 is a weak card, far from it, but there's no title fight, and the main event is a catchweight bout that might have ramifications for two divisions, but might also have none. Regardless of the outcome, Rich Franklin doesn't put on boring fights, and Vitor Belfort might actually turn out to be something special this time around. Sign me up.
Rob Emerson vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
If he fights a smart fight, this should be Dos Anjos's to lose. The problem is, Dos Anjos has a bad habit of willingly engaging in firefights on the feet when his biggest advantage is on the mat, tying his opponents in knots. He's like a Brazilian Josh Koscheck. Emerson, for his part, has pretty good hands and takedown defense, so he may be the one dictating where the fight takes place anyway. I expect Emerson to use the tools he has wisely and take a decision here.
Prediction: Emerson by decision
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac
Matyushenko makes his UFC return (yes its a theme on this card) against an unknown in Pokrajac. The Janitor's best days are probably behind him, but he's still good enough to beat an opponent suffering from the first-time jitters. Matyushenko by whatever he pleases.
Prediction: Matyushenko by TKO in round 1
Jason Brilz vs. Eliot Marshall
Both of these guys prefer to fight on the mat, so the question is does it become a stand-up war, or does the fighter with better technique impose his will? If we were talking wrestlers it would be the former, but with jiu-jitsu players its usually the latter. My money is on Marshall having the better ground game.
Prediction: Marshall by submission in round 2
Brian Foster vs. Rick Story
Story steps in on short notice to replace Paul Daley, who moved up to face Martin Kampmann when an injury forced Mike Swick off the card (injuries are a close second in the theme department for this show, but when isn't that the case?). I don't have much analysis to offer here, so its time to consult my trusty coin. The coin says when in doubt, go with guy who's had a full training camp to prepare for the fight. Coins can be so smart.
Prediction: Foster by TKO in round 1
Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz
Oliveira was supposed to take on Dan Lauzon before, you guessed it, an injury forced Lauzon off the show. Lauzon's glorious and triumphant UFC return will have to wait for a later date. In steps Lentz in the sacrificial lamb role. Oliveira picks up the win in his UFC debut and waits for Lauzon to heal so we can find out, once and for all, who the better man is (that's probably enough hype for a fight nobody cares about and may or may not ever happen).
Prediction: Oliveira by submission in round 1
Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez
This was originally Miller vs. Thiago Tavares in what would've been the unofficial "prelim main event", at least as far as I was concerned. Instead Miller matches up with the decidedly less heralded Steve Lopez. If Lopez was able to handle Miller's frantic pace and smothering top control, we would've already seen him in the Octagon. Typical Miller Bros. performance here.
Prediction: Miller by decision
Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal
The first fight of the night that the TV crowd will see, and the obligatory slugfest, this one should be a great fight to rope in a few extra pay-per-view buys. McFedries has never seen the second round in the UFC, and I don't expect that trend to change here with Drwal as a more than willing dance partner. McFedries biggest weakness is clearly his ground game, but its not like he has an iron chin either. Its either knock out or be knocked out for Drew, and seeing as how he won his last fight, he seems due for a disappointing loss. Don't blink, because this one won't last long.
Prediction: Drwal by TKO in round 1
Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller
Procrastination is a beautiful thing. Having waited til after the weigh-ins to make my picks, I now know that Escudero was completely drained trying to make weight, and depending on who you believe, he may never have gotten there. I was picking Miller all along, but now I'm more confident in the pick. Escudero will likely spend much of his time in top control, but off his back might be where Miller is most dangerous. Exhaustion will set in sometime in the second round, and Escudero will get sloppy and make a mistake. Miller is plenty good enough to capitalize on such things.
Prediction: Miller by submission in round 2
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca
The first fight on the pay-per-view main card has Fight of the Night potential, but in the end I see it being your typical Tyson Griffin fight. He'll stay busy throughout and consistently put Franca on his back, but he'll never come close to finishing. If Griffin wins, I wouldn't be surprised if he's matched up with Gray Maynard to find out who challenges the Penn/Sanchez winner.
Prediction: Griffin by decision
Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg
Frank Trigg makes his return against a younger, stronger, better version of himself in Josh Koscheck. We all know about Koscheck's recent baffling performances where he fancies himself a boxer, but I think he'll get back to his roots here. Koscheck is better in every area, but his biggest advantage will come if and when he plants Trigg on his back. For all the things Trigg does well, dealing with the pressure of a top notch wrestler on top of him isn't one of them. Kos just needs to work a couple minutes of ground and pound before Trigg will wilt and start looking for a way out. His favorite method: giving up his back and then his neck with surprising ease.
Prediction: Koscheck by submission in round 1
Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley
When this was Kampmann vs. Swick, it was a number one contender fight. Now? Who knows. If Kampmann can plow through Daley in the first stanza, it wouldn't surprise me if he was given the title shot, but my guess is Swick is still higher up on the totem pole from the UFC's perspective. Kampmann and Daley are both kickboxers by trade, but Kampmann has a much deeper repertoire than Daley. This one will resemble the Kampmann/McFedries fight from a few years ago, with Kampmann willingly striking with Daley, eating one to many shots, taking the fight to the ground with ease, and snatching a submission (perhaps even the arm triangle?) before the first horn sounds.
Prediction: Kampmann by submission in round 1
Junior Dos Santos vs. Mirko Filipovic
After putting the UFC and DREAM through a whole ordeal earlier this year, Cro Cop is back in the Octagon, and he's facing an opponent with a pulse. That alone makes this must see. Dos Santos thinks Cro Cop's time in the sport has passed, and I'm inclined to agree. His always suspect chin hasn't gotten any stronger and his strikes seem to lack the punch they had just a few short years ago. Dos Santos is the future, but he's out to prove his time is now. He wants to make a statement with his heavy hands and knock out the legend. We'll have to wait at least one more fight to see his ground game. He won't need it here.
Prediction: Dos Santos by TKO in round 1
Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort
You gotta love Rich Franklin. He gets it. He knows that in both divisions he can fit into, there's a champ reigning that's unequivocally better than him, so at the beginning of the twilight of his career he's come to terms that main events in featured bouts (code for "it doesn't matter") is as good as its gonna get. He takes any fight and tries to make it as exciting as possible. Unfortunately for him, Vitor Belfort, at his best, is closer to Anderson Silva than he is to Wanderlei Silva. After tearing through his last two opponents (Terry Martin and Matt Lindland, not exactly cans), we're hoping for and maybe even expecting Belfort to finally live up to his potential. Despite his 12 years of experience, Belfort is only 32 and doesn't have too much tread on his tire, with only 26 professional fights on his resume.
Franklin only loses to the best of the best, and I think that's what he's gonna run into with Belfort in this fight. Vitor's hands are too fast and too technical for Franklin, and I see him putting Ace down before we get to find out how Belfort deals with adversity.
Prediction: Belfort by TKO in round 2
Well that's another set of Prediction Championship defending picks. Good luck to the Fountain of Youth. How bout some bets?
Fake Money:
$300 on Belfort
$300 on Dos Santos
$200 on Miller
$200 on Drwal
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