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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
With all the attention that is being paid to UFC 193 in November (media sensation Ronda Rousey's next defense) and UFC 194 in December (Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo FINALLY square off, not to mention Chris Weidman meeting Luke Rockhold), people are overlooking what a solid card UFC 192 is. Sure, Alexander Gustafsson backing into his title shot against Daniel Cormier off of a devastating loss to Anthony Johnson puts a stigma on the main event, but the rest of the card is above average, including the preliminary fights.
Former title challenger Joseph Benavidez continues his almost impossible quest to earn another shot at the belt by facing another former title challenger in Ali Bagautinov. Alan Jouban and Albert Tumenov are two of the most exciting welterweights in the sport. Another former title challenger in Rose Namajunas makes her first appearance since coming up short for the belt. And a possible treat for hardcore fans will get their first look at 19-year old Sage Northcutt who could be something special.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Ali Bagautinov, Flyweight)
What's at Stake: The loser will have the door slammed shut on their already slim title hopes considering both have already come up short against Demetrious Johnson.
The Fighters: Benavidez has actually lost to Johnson twice, with the last encounter resulting in him being KOd in the first round. He has been in the conversation of being the world's second best flyweight since then just as capable of beating his opponents on the ground as he is on his feet as he has made great strides in his striking since beginning his career. While at his best striking in the pocket mixing in leg kicks with his combination boxing, his wrestling is still his bread and butter. His takedown defense isn't quite up to snuff for someone with his reputation, but his grappling skills are vastly underrated to the point that he is more comfortable off his back than most wrestlers. If he can land his renowned double-leg and get top control, he doesn't give it up easily and can end the fight with his GNP.
Making his first appearance in over 15 months due to a PED suspension, Bagautinov is the biggest bully in the division based on his physical style. Lacking much speed or quickness (for 125 lbs. at least), Bagautinov is constantly looking to close the distance so he can impose his wrestling, honed by years of Sambo competition in Russia, while being one of the hardest flyweights to put on his back. Reckless at times with his grappling, he has been strong enough to avoid danger while looking to rain punishment as opposed to sniffing for a sub. On his feet, he is largely a boxer with some fast hands and rare KO power for the division. He leaves himself vulnerable thanks to his tendency to load up on his punches in addition to his lack of speed. Luckily his chin has held up to this point as he has never been finished.
The Expectation: This could end up being as close to slugfest as you will find at flyweight, as both are prone to trading in the pocket. The difference will probably come down to Benavidez's ability to scramble, where I expect him to latch onto Bagautinov's neck and sink in his trademark guillotine. Benavidez via submission in the second round
Yair Rodriguez vs. Dan Hooker (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: Though neither of these youngsters are considered blue-chip prospects, they're talented enough to emerge as wild cards a few years down the road.
The Fighters: Best known for his awesome battle with Charles Rosa and then vomiting in his post-fight interview, Rodriguez is all action all the time. There is little to no rhythm to his attack, as he'll throw out almost anything to catch his opponent off-guard, like a flying knee or a spinning back kick with no setup. As you can probably guess from that approach, Rodriguez has very little regard for defense, making himself vulnerable to a disciplined striker, something he hasn't faced yet. Though not the most technically sound wrestler, his unpredictable striking often serves as a surprisingly effective setup for his takedowns. A submission-over-position grappler, he'll look to initiate scrambles where he is exceptional at latching onto an opposing limb.
A former kickboxer, Hooker doesn't ever bother to look to take the fight to the ground. If he does get it there he has shown better than expected grappling chops, even scoring a reversal from mount against Hatsu Hioki. Even with that said, Hooker has a long ways to go before his wrestling and BJJ can be considered even average. If he can keep it on his feet, he does an excellent job of using his large frame to keep distance and land his jab with efficiency. Though he has some power in his fists, it is his kicks that offer the real threat to ending his opposition's night. What has been surprising has been his clinch game where he is great at using his dirty boxing, elbows, and especially his knees. Though his wrestling is lacking, he has proven to be very effective in keeping from being taken down.
The Expectation: With Rodriguez's recklessness and Hooker's lack of viable grappling, I don't see this one going the distance. Hooker was able to survive submission specialist Ian Entwistle, so I think he'll be able to survive long enough to put away Rodriguez. Hooker via KO in the second round
Alan Jouban vs. Albert Tumenov (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: The type of fight fans don't care about but should; these two standup specialists are rarely in a boring fight and are knocking on the door to the rankings.
The Fighters: Despite looking like a pretty boy, Jouban is a classic brawler at heart as he looks to inflict as much damage as possible onto his opposition while often taking quite a bit of damage in the process. Best in the clinch where he possesses vicious elbows and knees as he is able to create uncommon power in short distances. Jouban can strike from a distance too, but is much more prone to taking damage from there as he is willing to let his opponent make the first move when given space. That is part of the reason why he is known as a slow starter, but watch out once he gets rolling as he has great killer instinct once his opponent is hurt. Jouban doesn't offer much with his grappling or wrestling as he rarely looks to go to the ground with his only submission victory coming via punches.
While Tumenov is most comfortable on his feet as well, he is a surgeon when compared to Jouban's bull in a china shop as he is patient in looking for the openings his opponent's offer and adjusting accordingly as the fight goes on. While he doesn't possess the same short area power as Jouban, he is much more dangerous from a distance where he is fantastic at putting together boxing combinations with his fast hands while mixing in kicks to the body or the kill shot to the head. Tumenov rarely looks to take the fight to the ground, but has a tendency to catch his opponent's kicks where he could easily land a trip takedown if he so pleased. While he has tightened up his takedown defense since his UFC entry, Tumenov is similar to Jouban in that he doesn't offer much of a submission threat.
The Expectation: An early favorite for FOTN, I can't see these two having a boring fight. Both have shown iron chins and my gut says that they will hold up as opposed to one of them scoring a KO. I like Tumenov's ability to make adjustments to give him a W. Tumenov via decision
Rose Namajunas vs. Angela Hill (Women's Strawweight)
What's at Stake: Hill is being served up as the sacrificial lamb to Namajunas as the UFC tries to once again serve the former title contender a softball to build her up.
The Fighters: Almost 10 months will have passed since Namajunas attempted to become the first Women's Strawweight Champion, and has largely been forgotten as a result. Her impressive run in the TUF tournament was highlighted by her rabid aggression where she threw up submission attempt after submission attempt in addition to constantly moving forward throwing punches while tossing in flashy kicks that had a low chance of landing. Her lack of wrestling was exposed by Carla Esparza, who was able to take Namajunas down time after time with relative ease. Namajunas slowed down quickly after coming out like a cannonball and blowing her wad before the first round was over. Asking Namajunas to no longer be aggressive isn't the answer, but she'll need to know when to explode to find success.
Hill is a talented striker herself as she crossed over from Muay Thai. Using that extensive experience to her advantage, she looks to fight in close quarters and devastate her opposition where she can unload with vicious knees and elbows. She can strike from a distance as she utilizes an awkward looking jab and a front kick, but she isn't going to end the fight from there. It's no surprise that Hill has little to no grappling experience into just her fourth professional fight, but her takedown defense has been surprisingly strong as she makes great use of the fence to stay upright. While her BJJ continues to develop, Hill has proven to be extremely active on her back allowing her to avoid staying on the ground for long periods of time, but isn't a submission threat.
The Expectation: Hill can certainly pull off the upset and might even be the favorite if the fight goes to decision, but I'm not counting on that. Namajunas' all-or-nothing style should work well for her against someone as inexperienced on the ground as Hill resulting in an early sub. Namajunas via submission in the first round
Adriano Martins vs. Islam Makhachev (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: The UFC is looking to fast-track Makhachev into contention as he faces tough and grizzled veteran Martins.
The Fighters: Martins is familiar with this position; he was supposed to be a stepping stone for Rustam Khabilov before turning away Makhachev's countryman in February. Though he is a highly skilled BJJ practitioner and submission artist, Martins has been more likely to stand and trade punches rather than look to take the fight to the ground. This has often been a strategy that has Martins playing with fire as he does possess power, but he doesn't throw with much volume, and can be awkward on his feet. At the same time, it does make his takedown attempts likely to succeed as he can lull his opponent to sleep before scoring with a quick single or double-leg. Big and strong at 155 lbs., Martins is top heavy from there, and capable of scoring a submission with his brute strength in the opening is there.
A teammate of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is very similar to his lifelong friend in that he is a grappler first and foremost thanks to the sambo background that seems to be attached to every Russian. Lethal in the clinch where he can utilize short elbows and uppercuts, he uses the strikes to set up his trips and throws to get the fight to the ground. From there Makhachev has proven to be very proficient in getting his opponent's back or maintaining top control using strikes to create openings for a sub. He isn't as dogged at pursuing the takedown as Khabib, but Makhachev isn't quite the wrestler Khabib is either. When striking from a distance, Makhachev looks to counter as searches for openings to get into the clinch. Though more likely to score a sub, he does have enough power to end a fight early with strikes.
The Expectation: This is some fine matchmaking by Joe Silva. Makhachev could be the next big thing at lightweight, and seeing what he can do against Martins is a hell of a way for him to prove whether he is or not. I think Makhachev is an elite prospect and would get the win if the fight were a year or so from now, but not at this juncture. Martins via submission in the third round
Chris Cariaso vs. Sergio Pettis (Flyweight)
What's at Stake: After whiffing on a supposed lob in losing to Ryan Benoit, the UFC is telling Pettis it is time to sink or swim with tough vet Cariaso in his way.
The Fighters: Cariaso has been a mainstay in the lighter divisions of the UFC since they were introduced, proving himself to be a strong gatekeeper but hardly a contender despite his gift-wrapped title shot against Mighty Mouse last year. Cariaso isn't great at anything, while not having a glaring weakness to point out either. Well… he has struggled against grapplers, but generally does a solid job of keeping the feet when his opponent isn't an Olympic gold medal winning wrestler. A more accurate assessment might be to state he has no weakness on the feet as he is comfortable working in the clinch or at a distance where he does a solid job of mixing kicks in with his punches while putting together combos. Cariaso relies heavily on volume as he lacks a lot of power.
Some might see some parallels between Pettis and Cariaso, such as the lack of power and a still developing ground game, but Pettis is still on the upswing of his career, whereas Cariaso is on the downslide. Still only 22, Pettis' wrestling and grappling holes shouldn't be as glaring at flyweight as he is no longer undersized here as he was at 135 lbs. He should get the standing war he wants anyway, as Cariaso only offers the occasional change of pace takedown. Despite being limited on raw power, Pettis is very technically sound, making it possible for him to score the KO provided he connects in the right spot. Pettis throws his punches in combination and is versatile enough to either lead the dance or allow his opponent to do so and take a countering approach with equal aplomb.
The Expectation: Another fine piece of matchmaking, as Pettis looked good against Ryan Benoit before getting caught and finished, including his groundwork. Taking into account that Cariaso is 34 as well (fairly ancient at flyweight) and I'm leaning towards the youngster more and more. Pettis via decision
Derrick Lewis vs. Viktor Pesta (Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: In the land of dinosaurs (i.e. heavyweight division), Lewis and Pesta represent two of the youngsters who need to make their name for the sake of the division's future. Expect a push for the winner.
The Fighters: Nicknamed “The Black Beast,” few nicknames are more appropriate for Lewis. He's a huge human being, needing to cut weight to get under the heavyweight limit. It's possible no one in the UFC contains more natural power than he does, and he isn't a bad athlete either. So why isn't he amongst the elite? Lewis could stand to sacrifice some of his power for a bit of speed and endurance, as he lumbers forward relying on his toughness to eat what opponents might throw at him as he has defended a paltry 36% of what his opponents have thrown at him. His opponents may not hit as hard as he does, but you eat enough hard punches you are bound to go out. Technique isn't a strong suit for him either, relying solely on his physical gifts whether it is striking or wrestling.
Pesta was seen as a stepping stone for debut Konstantin Erokhin back in January only to survive the early onslaught from the hard hitting Russian whose style is similar to Lewis. Besides showing an impressive chin in the process, Pesta proved to have a plus gas tank (at least for heavyweight) which will give him a serious advantage against Lewis provided he can get out of the first round. As a striker Pesta has some good power, but is still developing his technique on the outside despite his relatively long frame. He is most comfortable in the clinch where he has some effective knees and can quickly drop for the takedown where he is most comfortable delivering potential fight-ending GNP. He is dogged on his takedown attempts, but could use some extensive work with a good wrestling coach.
The Expectation: This is hard as hell to predict as well. Pesta took Erokhin down multiple times, but I'm sure Erokhin was at least 40 pounds lighter than Lewis will be. It will be harder for Pesta to implement his clinch offense and takedowns against Lewis. Thus I'm picking Lewis to get a stoppage, but not without reservations. Lewis via KO in the first round
Frank Trevino vs. Sage Northcutt (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Clearly a potential showcase for the youngster Northcutt to open his UFC career, as Trevino will be fighting to keep his job.
The Fighters: While Trevino is a feel-good story as a person who used MMA to lose weight and get in shape only for it to turn into a career, he is 33 years old and was never much of an athlete to begin with, meaning his ceiling was always going to be extremely limited competing at the highest level. You can guess in order for him to reach the UFC despite his physical limitations that Trevino is about as scrappy and tough as they come. He relies heavily on leg kicks at range as he prefers to get in close range where he can use his Muay Thai to great extent in the clinch. He doesn't mind throwing spinning strikes, but those haven't been as prevalent since entering the UFC. Trevino has struggled mightily with the wrestling as he has little experience there, but does possess an active and dangerous guard.
Northcutt has the look of a potential phenom as he is only 19 years old with less than a year of pro experience into his UFC debut. The physical tools are all there (including the boyish face on a chiseled frame the ladies will love) in addition to showing a surprisingly well-rounded approach. With a karateka base, Northcutt possesses a nice arsenal of kicks to lure his opponents in, and fast hands that easily catch opponents as they recklessly rush in to engage. His wrestling is still fairly raw as he uses his brute strength to lift and slam opponents as opposed to traditional wrestling techniques. Northcutt is versed in chokes and skilled at getting the oppositions back. What might be a worry is he has never fought at 155 lbs. with most of his fights coming at a catchweight of 165 lbs.
The Expectation: Northcutt has the look of something special and the UFC really wants him to get off on the right foot. This is a perfect matchup for him to look good doing so. Trevino can take punishment which will give Northcutt the opportunity to showcase his skills. Northcutt via TKO in the second round
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