Jul 8, 2009 - 10:28:42 AM By Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor
[Frank Mir Art Credit - Cory Gould (c) MMATorch.com].
Preliminary Card quick picks:
-Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty- Gugerty by Submission in the 2nd round
-C.B. Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor- Dollaway by TKO in the 2nd round
-Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant- Kim by Decision
-Jon Jones vs. Jake O'Brien- Jones by TKO in the 2nd round
-Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller- Miller by Decision
Main Card picks:
-Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher- Akiyama by Decision
-Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar- I've never been one to tell someone when to retire, I think a guy should be able to do what he wants as long as he's able to, and I don't think legacies are hurt that much by sticking around too long. However, this isn't about a legacy, this is about someone's health. I don't think Mark Coleman is able to separate himself from emotion and look at his situation clearly and logically. Someone needs to step in and save Coleman from himself. The problem is that Coleman is still good enough to beat certain fighters, or at least seem competitive. I don't think Bonnar's going to put a world-class beatdown on Coleman, but he shouldn't have much trouble dispatching of him. Coleman's tough enough that he'll probably last until the 3rd round, which is unfortunate since he might take that as a sign that he can still fight at a high level. Someone needs to get Coleman's ear and tell him to quit fighting before he permanently hurts himself.
Prediction- Bonnar by TKO in the 3rd round
-Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping- Henderson has stated in recent interviews that he feels better than he ever has. I'm not sure if that's just talk, or if it's true. Either way, it still doesn't change my opinion on this fight. As soon as this match-up was announced I thought Henderson was going to dominant Bisping and get the win. I like Bisping, but most of his victories aren't that impressive. On the other hand, Henderson has fought some of the best fighters in the world. Henderson is 38 years old so that may slow him down some, but I think he still has enough in the tank to beat Bisping. Henderson should be able to use his wrestling skill and punching power to grind out the victory. Bisping has the advantage with speed, but I just don't think that he'll be able to do anything that Henderson hasn't seen before. Henderson is on a different level than Bisping. It's fully possible that Bisping will ascend to that same level in this fight, but he hasn't shown himself capable of that before. It's possible, but not likely. Henderson has that same hard head that Chris Leben has. Bisping was unable to finish Leben. Henderson gets a lot of decision wins, and I think he gets another one here.
Prediction- Henderson by Decision
-Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago- Fitch was on a major roll until he fought GSP. Thiago has never lost in 11 fights, including a big KO of Fitch's campmate, Josh Koscheck. If the fight goes to the ground, Thiago will be tough to beat. However, Fitch is an excellent wrestler and should be able to control where the fight goes. Koscheck made a critical mistake when he lowered his head against Thiago. Fitch will surely have learned from that and won't repeat it. Fitch also has the big-fight experience that Thiago lacks. This fight should be a lot closer than many think, but Fitch should still come out on top. He'll be able to work his ground-and-pound and his strength and wrestling should carry him to victory. Fitch will have to be extremely careful of Thiago's jiu-jitsu, though. Thiago is a black belt in Constrictor jiu-jitsu under his coach, Ataide Jr. One mistake by Fitch and the fight could be over quickly.
Prediction- Fitch by TKO in the 3rd round
-Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves- The voice-over guy for the UFC 100 commercial says that Alves is St. Pierre's biggest challenge ever. I know that they're just trying to hype the fight, but that's a ridiculous statement. I think Alves is a very good fighter, but BJ Penn or Matt Hughes was GSP's biggest challenge ever. The biggest wins in Alves' career were over Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. Karo is overrated as a high-level fighter. He's a good fighter, but not a great one. Matt Hughes isn't the same fighter he was even a few years ago. Alves' victory over Koscheck is the only one I'd say was truly impressive. I think this fight comes down to Alves and his ability to fight off of his back. GSP will probably look to ground and pound out a victory. He can stand and strike with Alves, but I think he'll do best by using his wrestling to get takedowns and wear down Alves.
GSP has worked very hard to fill up any holes in his game. However, his chin is still under question. There's a debate about whether or not strengthening your neck helps you avoid getting knocked out. Regardless of where you stand on this debate, it's clear that some guys just have a natural ability to withstand a potential knockout blow. Landing a knockout shot is Alves' best bet. It's going to be very hard for him to submit GSP. Also, GSP's wrestling is so good that it's going to extremely hard for Alves to get on top of him for any length of time. Standing and striking is the way to go for Alves. He may even be able to catch GSP off-guard if he times a headkick right. Alves is a big guy, and he should utilize his power.
At the end of the day, though, I think this is GSP's fight to lose. If he fights to his ability, he should win with no problem. GSP is one of the best fighters in the world. You could argue that he is the best, edging out Fedor Emelianenko and Anderson Silva for that spot. It won't be a titanic upset if Alves wins, but GSP is expected to win. It should be a hard-fought battle, with GSP proving why he's one of the best of all-time. Alves has only gone the distance 3 times in his career. He's never had to go into the championship rounds. GSP went 4 full rounds and 5 rounds in his last two fights. Alves carries a lot of weight on his frame. If it gets late into the fight, his conditioning will come into play. When it comes down to who's in the better shape, I have to go with GSP.
Prediction- St. Pierre by TKO in the 4th round.
-Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir- The more I think about this fight, the more I think Mir has the edge. I think Mir will utilize skill and technique while Brock will rely on his athleticism more. I also think that Brock is a year or two away from achieving enough of his potential to be a dominant fighter. Brock is one of the most athletically gifted fighters in MMA history. That can carry you pretty far. However, when you come across a fighter with superior skill you're often at a disadvantage. In his fight against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Mir showed better striking ability than Brock ever has. Brock is very strong, but his boxing technique leaves a lot to be desired. And I don't think kicks ever really cross his mind, either. He's obviously going to improve in those areas, how much depends on him. It takes an extremely driven individual to focus on weak areas that are covered up by athletic ability. Brock's power, and to a lesser extent, his speed, overcome his rudimentary technique. Problems arise when that power and speed are negated by a more-skilled fighter.
None of Brock's wins have been all that impressive. Randy Couture was an old man, and looked it. There was no way he was winning that fight. The only reason anyone even gave him half a chance was because of what he's done in the past. Everyone was swayed by emotion because of the respect Couture has earned in his career. Brock's win over Heath Herring was mediocre at best. Herring is a good mid-level fighter, but when he takes on someone higher up the totem pole than him he loses. He's the perfect example of someone who's a good fighter, but not a great one. By Brock's standards, that's not an impressive win. And Min-Soo Kim is Min-Soo Kim, no offense to him. I'm sure he's a great guy, but as a fighter he's not anything to brag about.
This fight will serve as a bellwether for the latter part of Brock's MMA career. If he doesn't come out with much-improved technique, then his stay at the top will be a short one. Eventually Brock's athletic gifts will fade and he'll no longer be quicker than most of his opponents. He'll also want to consider dropping some muscle because his weight cuts are only going to get worse as he ages. The first thing a fighter loses is his speed. Then he starts losing his balance and timing. Endurance, then power, are the last things a fighter loses. The only way to even try to overcome diminishing physical ability is through superior technique. We're all seeing what's happening to Chuck Liddell. He used to be able to overcome technique mistakes with athleticism, but now he's paying the price for not building a solid foundation of skill. This is what will happen to Brock if he doesn't improve his skill. His career will be like Mike Tyson's, except much shorter. As for the fight, I think Mir will capitalize on a Brock mistake yet again and pull out the win. I won't be surprised if Brock bullrushes him and overwhelms him with his physical ability, though.
Prediction- Mir by Submission in the 2nd round
