...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
This isn't a card that has a lot of depth to it as main and co-main events don't have much competition with regards to potential scene stealers. Sure, there are some fights that look as though they have some potential to be fun (Josh Burkman-Patrick Cote, Marcos Rogerio de Lima-Nikita Krylov), but none of them seem to be guaranteed barnburners. Perhaps even worse, none of them seem to have high stakes riding on them. Bummer.
As it stands, I'll be watching the entire card. Then again, I always do. But if you want my honest opinion you can probably skip the prelims before tuning in to the main card where the intrigue does pick up a bit, and really skyrockets for the last fight of the night. But for those of you who have to catch EVERYTHING, I got ya covered here… at least for the prelims.
Sam Stout vs. Frankie Perez (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Employment, as Stout seems to be reaching the end of the line while Perez's UFC career could be over before it starts.
The Fighters: Stout made his UFC debut at 22 all the way back in 2006. Known for his high volume output and solid chin throughout his tenure, the output is still there, but his chin seems to be long gone as he has been KO'd in his last two appearances. That's after never having been put to sleep in his first 30 MMA fights. Stout has made subtle improvements in all phases; his head movement is more efficient and he has integrated the occasional takedown into his arsenal as well to give his opponents something to think about. But he still hasn't developed enough power in his punches to make him a legitimate KO threat and he has never been a refined grappler. With eight of his nine UFC victories coming by way of decision, it is hard to see him having success with a deteriorating chin.
Luckily for Stout, the UFC is presenting him a favorable matchup in Perez. It isn't that Perez sucks, he simply lacks the striking acumen that Stout's last two opponents (KJ Noons and Ross Pearson) possess, meaning that Stout's chin might actually hold up. It should come as no surprise that he is primarily a grappler knowing he is a protégé of Ricardo Almeida and he has proven himself to be a talented submission artist. Perez blends his wrestling well with his grappling when the fight is already on the ground, but takedowns and wrestling defense are areas in need of work. Though he has developed a reputation of being pillow fisted, he has been making progress in developing power. Regardless, his leg kicks are still his most efficient strikes at this point.
The Expectation: This fight is easy to pick if you don't think too much about it. The more one thinks about it though the more they think that Stout actually has a chance as Perez's weaknesses match up well for Stout. Nonetheless, Stout's decline is too sharp to ignore. Perez via TKO in the second round
Yves Jabouin vs. Felipe Arantes (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: A spirited performance could be needed for the loser to stay in the UFC as they battle to scratch and claw into the middle of the division in Arantes' bantamweight debut.
The Fighters: Jabouin is a rarity in the bantamweight division, a 36 year-old who has yet to show discernible decline due to age. Some might even argue that Jabouin could still be improving, as he has developed much greater efficiency in getting his opponent to the mat, evolving into more than the striker that many had labeled him for years. Couple that reputation and his flashy-yet-efficient kicks, some have mistaken Jabouin for a KO artist. That he is not, but Jabouin doesn't get enough credit for the rest of his striking abilities, as he is comfortable in space as well as in the clinch. Along with the improvement in his takedowns, Jabouin has proven to be a solid defensive wrestler with good top control, but offers little in terms of submissions.
Arantes is a very difficult fighter to define as he is very well-rounded without a standout skill or a major weakness. When he first came into the UFC he was strictly a striker with a Muay Thai base and has since become a very solid wrestler capable of grinding out a victory over lesser competition. Whether or not he will be able to do that to Jabouin seems doubtful given Jabouin's recent gains in wrestling, and Arantes' takedown defense is still questionable despite his wrestling gains. Perhaps the biggest issue with Arantes is that he can be too passive on the feet and allow his opponent to dictate the pace while eating too many shots. He does have sound power which is most apparent when he can get top control on his opponent where his punches and elbows can stop the fight quickly.
The Expectation: This is a coin flip of a fight and I wouldn't even consider putting money down on this if I was a betting man. I'm picking Arantes based on his youth, size advantage, and Jabouin's last three loses all coming by KO/TKO indicating his chin could be cracking. Arantes via TKO in the third round
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: The winner should receive an opportunity to crack the top 15… not the accomplishment it would be in other weight classes.
The Fighters: De Lima was written off as a top prospect a few years ago after stumbling in his lone Strikeforce appearance, and followed that with an upset loss on the Brazillian regionals. It appears he was simply a late bloomer, as he has ended both of his UFC bouts within two minutes. Hardly old at 30 for 205 lbs., de Lima holds an athletic advantage over most of his opposition in the division, and has been able to use that to his advantage as he aggressively attacks with a good combination of kicks and punches, but also leaves himself open to being hit. Though best in space, he is capable of doing significant damage in the clinch. De Lima will struggle to reach his potential until he develops a ground game, an aspect he tries to avoid like the plague.
Krylov is developing a cult following due to his quirky personality and propensity for short fights with unusual outcomes (he is one of two UFC fighters to lose via Von Flue choke). For all of his ‘goofiness,' Krylov does actually present some awesome physical tools that could make him a force if refined. Knowing de Lima's aversion to grappling, look for Krylov to try to force the fight to the ground with his enthusiastic but underdeveloped wrestling. From there, he is aggressive with his submissions, but that is another aspect best described as enthusiastic as he is quick to give up position looking for his own and put himself in potential danger. Perhaps his best aspect is his kick heavy standup that he throws with great volume with little regard for defense.
The Expectation: Don't expect this fight to go the distance. Two aggressive strikers with little regard for returning damage… this should be fun! De Lima is the more disciplined striker and I expect him to get the finish. De Lima via KO in the first round
Chris Kelades vs. Chris Beal (Flyweight)
What's at Stake: Look for the winner to escape the doldrums of the flyweight division… or at least receive a chance to do so in their next bout. The loser could be unemployed.
The Fighters: Kelades is the type of guy who is easy to cheer for as he seems to be the perpetual underdog in every fight thanks to a lack of abundant physical skills. Seriously, he is probably the least athletic flyweight in the UFC. That hardly makes him an easy out, as he is chock full of heart and toughness while being a technically sound fighter. As expected with someone lacking physical tools, Kelades likes to make the fight dirty, and does a lot of damage in the clinch with knees as well as excellent GNP. Though he doesn't like to fight in space, he possesses a nice jab and functional power to allow him to survive. He has proven difficult to submit too, but needs to do a better job of avoiding getting himself in those perilous positions.
Beal isn't likely to put Kelades in those situations, as grappling is the weakest part game. Not that it is non-existent; Beal has proven himself to be a sound wrestler who could stand to mix it into his arsenal a bit more, but he has made it abundantly clear that he fancies himself a striker first and foremost. Well, perhaps I should say boxer, as he relies heavily on his fists with fast combinations, though he has shown he's willing to throw some flash in there as his highlight reel flying knee KO of Patrick Williams proved. A lack of diversity has hindered him, though, as leg kicks are rare, and though he has been successful taking the fight to the ground, he doesn't do so as often as he should. Beal's grappling has made great strides since his TUF appearance, but still has a ways to go.
The Expectation: This is a tough one to call. Beal is by far physically superior, but I question his ability to make the next step. Few are as dogged as Kelades and I easily see him stealing this one. Despite that, I'll favor youth and athleticism, picking Beal's volume to grant him a decision. Beal via decision
Shane Campbell vs. Elias Silverio (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Unproven striker vs. somewhat proven striker meet to possibly decide who stays in the organization.
The Fighters: Campbell is the unproven one in this equation but I only mean he is unproven in terms of UFC success. A long 155er who knows how to use his length well (at least offensively), Campbell uses a very kick heavy offensive approach, mixing them to the legs, body, and head and can combine them with his punches too. He doesn't have a lot of power in his fists, but those kicks are another story. He has proven to be sound enough in his takedown defense, but doesn't bother to look to go to the ground himself aside from the occasional trip or throw from the clinch where he is also proficient. Striking defense is a major issue, as a lack of head movement and not using his length to keep range cost him in his UFC debut.
Silverio is actually longer than Campbell is, but isn't quite as technically proficient as Campbell is as a striker. Similar to Campbell in that he possesses a lot more power in his kicks than he does his punches, Silverio has gotten a reputation as a decision fighter thanks to his inability to finish his opponents despite heavy volume thanks to not fully committing to his punches. If he corrected that Silverio could become a real threat in the division; he has a much more reliable wrestling and grappling game to rely on, and has been extremely difficult to take down while also efficiently mixing in takedowns of his own… at times. Getting away from that didn't help his cause in his lone UFC loss. Though he has some submission abilities, Silverio would much rather pound out his opposition.
The Expectation: This should be an overall fun fight to watch. I think back to Silverio's performance against Isaac Vallie-Flagg where he took the brawler down repeatedly to grind out a victory. Knowing he can do that, I think he'll do the same to Campbell. Silverio via decision
Misha Cirkunov vs. Daniel Jolly (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: With both making their UFC debuts, they should have plenty of job security in this fight, so getting off on the right foot as all that there is for the newcomers.
The Fighters: Despite being on the prospect radar for quite a while Cirkunov is still fairly raw. Well, at least his striking is. A wiz on the ground with surprisingly nimble movement for a man his size, Cirkunov is very skilled in submissions and doesn't just take what is there as he is capable of manipulating his opponent to create his own potential fight-ending hold. He is a bit to laissez-faire when it comes to giving up position, and is perhaps too comfortable off of his back, but that probably won't fly so well in the big leagues. As far as his striking, he has a lot of raw power and can hurt his opponent, but his movement is about as stiff as it gets. If he can clinch up, he'll be fine as his clinch offense is great and he can take the fight to the ground from there.
Jolly is only here due to an injury to original opponent Sean O'Connell, which gives you a pretty good idea about the expectations around him. What he has shown in the cage in his limited experience pretty much proves why Cirkunov is a heavy favorite. Jolly has a background in Kuk Sool Won, but has shown pretty much none of that as he looks to clinch up and either take the fight to the ground from there or lay into his opponent using dirty boxing. Once on the ground he is fairly heavy from the top position with some solid punches, but he hasn't been a big threat to end the fight from there. Is all lost for him? No, as he is a good athlete and his lack of experience indicates he still has a lot of room to grow. But for right now… yeah, I'd say he's probably screwed in this fight.
The Expectation: Aside from a lucky punch, I don't see Jolly winning this fight barring some major strides in the year since his last fight. Cirkunov isn't exactly a diverse fighter, but he offers a lot more than Jolly at this point. Cirkunov via submission in the first round
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
