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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
Not surprisingly, another UFC event is upon us. Ronda Rousey is looking to add to her dominant streak while her supporting cast features legends whose best days were not five, but 10 years ago. So while I admit that the card feels a bit underwhelming (despite 13 total fights), I'm not feeling shorthanded the more I look at the card. Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Aguilar battle to determine who faces Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the strawweight belt, and I'm highly intrigued by the possibilities Demian Maia and Neil Magny present to one another in the preliminary headliner. There are a few other fights that, despite the lack of name value, should provide good entertainment as well; and who knows… maybe the old dudes have got something left to offer too.
Demian Maia vs. Neil Magny (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Now serving as the ultimate gatekeeper to the elite, Maia will serve as the final test to prove whether Magny should be fighting the elite.
The Fighters: Long considered to be the penultimate grappler in the sport, Maia's reliance on his grappling savvy has allowed him to age better than most 37-year-olds in the sport. The idea of him challenging for a title ever again is a bit ludicrous at this stage, but he is still a major force to be reckoned with for anyone not at the top of the division. Hard to believe as it is, his grappling has improved, as he has done a better job of implementing wrestling into his arsenal, and though a submission isn't a guarantee from him, he can suffocate his opponent on the ground. Maia's boxing is underwhelming as he lacks KO power and struggles to set up his level changes, but it isn't as bad as his reputation suggests.
Magny rides a seven-fight win streak into this fight, but most of the names on that list have been underwhelming. Still, Magny has shown consistent improvement, as he has finished his last three opponents, and four of his last five. Owner of an ungodly 80” reach, Magny has learned to use it to great effect. Combined with his much improved footwork, Magny contains some of the best standing defense in MMA. He is a threat in close range as well where he has developed real fight ending power. Magny's improvement doesn't stop on the feet either. Though most of the improvements he has displayed on the ground have been offensive, he has made massive all-around leaps as a grappler. Owner of a deep gas tank, look for Magny to push the pace.
The Expectation: This is a very difficult fight to predict. If Maia can get the fight to the ground, he is the easy pick. If Magny keeps it standing, he becomes the favorite. The one thing that has been missing during Magny's streak is an elite grappler, and the last time he faced one he got subbed. Though he has improved since then... Maia via submission in the first round
Rafael Cavalcante vs. Patrick Cummins (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: I kind of want to throw up saying it, but the winner could end up getting a shot at a top five opponent with the win. It's disgusting how thin 205 lbs. is...
The Fighters: Cavalcante is kind of a poor man's Wanderlei Silva. Not that I'm comparing him to a legend... but his fighting style is similar to the fallen great. With a strong Muay Thai base that produces a flurry of violence when he is in his element that has produced fairly good results, but has also left him wide open to counters from his opponents. Though he comes across as wild in his striking, he is actually pretty technically sound, thus why he is such a powerhouse when his punches connect cleanly. Cavalcante owns an underrated guard that opponents should be wary to jump into, and even though Ryan Bader exposed his wrestling to be a weakness, he isn't as bad in that category as Bader made him seem to be. Remember Bader did the same thing to Ovince St. Preux.
Speaking of Bader, Cummins could be seen as a less refined version of him: A standout college wrestler with raw striking skills. Cummins has proved capable of grinding the lower competitors of the division into the ground, but hasn't developed into the multi-dimensional fighter that he needs to be in order to challenge the elite of the division. Good thing Cavalcante isn't that caliber of fighter. Cummins' striking success is largely based on opponents bracing for the level change that is guaranteed to be coming. He does have a lot of raw power that he uses effectively on the ground when he is pounding on his opponents, but hasn't been able to effectively translate that into his standup yet. At this point, leg kicks are probably his most effective strike.
The Expectation: This match will say a lot about both fighters as Cavalcante is a dangerous striker and Cummins a grinder... the exact type of fighters each previously lost to. I don't think Cummins has figured out all the small tricks to implement his strategy against the likes of Cavalcante quite yet. Cavalcante via TKO in the second round
Warlley Alves vs. Nordine Taleb (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Taleb plays the fairly low level gatekeeper to test where the talented TUF Brazil winner Alves is at in his development.
The Fighters: Alves appears to be the most talented prospect to emerge out of the TUF Brazil product, and has plenty of time to improve with only eight pro fights at the tender age of 24. The judges gift-wrapped his last victory for him, but even in what should have been a losing effort his physical gifts were showcased. Explosive and powerful, he is able to translate those attributes into both his double leg and punches. Once he does get the fight on the ground, he is aggressive in looking for the guillotine and is fairly top heavy. His overall grappling still needs polish, but he should get that as he works with Jacare Souza. On the feet, he has fantastic takedown defense and wings single strikes. Pacing is the biggest thing at this time he needs to work on.
Taleb is a massive welterweight who finds himself on a bit of a surprising three-fight win streak in the UFC following losses in two seasons of TUF. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he has been able to avoid falling into a brawl, as he has been able to establish range with a nice jab and body kicks fighting at a more natural 170. He does well in a dirty fight against the cage as well and times his level changes very well as he is a better than advertised wrestler. A lack of finishing skills hurts him considerably as he lacks power, and though he isn't a bad positional grappler, he could improve and isn't submission savvy. What has stood out the most in his UFC showings has been his toughness and gas tank as he has no quit and is relentless from bell to bell.
The Expectation: Taleb hasn't exactly faced any stellar athletes in his win streak, and isn't much of an athlete himself. Alves is by far the best he has faced and it will probably be too much to overcome. Alves via submission in the second round
Iuri Alcantara vs. Leandro Issa (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Alcantara is looking to prove his loss to Frankie Saenz was a fluke and he is still relevant, while Issa simply hopes to prove he is relevant.
The Fighters: Does anyone else realize Alcantara is almost 35? Knowing that, his sudden drop-off in performance against Saenz shouldn't come as much of a surprise when combined with the fact that he has always struggled against wrestlers. Fortunately for him, Issa isn't a wrestler. Alcantara has relied a lot on his ability to submit opponents off of his back or create scrambles where he can latch on a submission and paid the price for it as he has never placed a heavy emphasis on stopping takedowns. He is still dangerous on his feet whether at a distance where he can take advantage of his long 71” reach with good combinations or in the clinch with knees and elbows. Though established, he isn't a great wrestler, but he is skilled in trips and throws in the clinch.
Issa will qualify as one of the few opponents Alcantara has faced that is definitively a better grappler than Alcantara. A former Brazilian national champion in BJJ, Issa's recent string of success actually has been attributed to his aggression and improved striking. Using an attack heavy on leg kicks, Issa uses them to set up hard overhands where he can then blitz his opponent and get them into the clinch, where he can either trip or drag his opponent to the ground. On top, he is heavy from that position, and is aggressive in passing the guard and has a deep repertoire of submissions that he can latch on. Skilled strikers and plus wrestlers have been issues for him, and he has also gassed in the past, though it does seem he has worked on that issue recently.
The Expectation: This is really make or break for Alcantara. If he can't get past Issa, his days being a ranked fighter are numbered. Though I don't think he'll be there much longer, he should be able to get past Issa as he matches up well against the BJJ expert. Alcantara via decision
Vitor Miranda vs. Clint Hester (Middleweight)
What's at Stake: This should be a striker's delight as Miranda and Hester look to create some separation in a crowded middleweight sea.
The Fighters: Miranda proved that he could not only make the cut to 185 lbs. in his last appearance, but that he could potentially thrive. While it is true that whether he is a heavyweight or middleweight Miranda is a terrible wrestler, he isn't getting bullied against the cage or in the grappling aspect as he was at the higher weight class. A former kickboxer, Miranda possesses some seriously powerful kicks that have fight ending potential, something he showed off in his middleweight debut against Jake Collier. He can be too selective in his strikes and end up too static as a result in addition to being a single striker. His grappling and wrestling are only adequate enough to allow him to survive against competent wrestler/grapplers, but not adequate enough against those who are truly skilled.
Hester isn't a great wrestler or grappler, so this won't be a walk in the park for him. Granted, Hester has been making strides in his wrestling, as he has integrated the occasional takedown into his repertoire which has made his solid boxing that much more effective and requires opponents to be aware of the threat of his takedowns. He has developed some good strikes on the ground while his grappling is still a work in progress. On the feet, Hester has been working on his Muay Thai and mixing in leg kicks to his skill set. Hester still gets wild at times and not only tires himself in the process, but also leaves openings the size of a Mack truck in his defense. When disciplined, Hester puts together good, crisp, and fluid combinations with his punches.
The Expectation: Miranda does possess the better striking technique, but Hester offers a more diverse attack and is the superior athlete by far. The question for me is whether or not Miranda has the durability to last 15 minutes. Hester via TKO in the third round
Hugo Viana vs. Guido Cannetti (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Both of these bantamweights are on thin ice at this point and are fighting for their jobs.
The Fighters: It has been over a year since Viana stepped into the Octagon, and now at 32 years old can no longer be considered a prospect… if he was ever truly thought of as one. Viana has the physical tools to be a mid-tier gatekeeper, but has never had the discipline in the cage to work his way even that far up the ladder. He has power in his fists, but he is also wild with his strikes, looping them about as wide as one can and that is only one part of his defense that needs work. He might be a more effective striker if he ever thought about implementing a ground game into his strategy, but he hasn't even attempted a single takedown in five UFC fights.
For as wild of a fighter that Viana is, Cannetti is the same type of fighter amplified by ten. Cannetti only moves in one direction, and that is straight ahead swinging with bad intentions. Not just in that sense. Cannetti is also older at 35, has less experience in both MMA and the UFC, holes in his defense beyond just being aggressive, and doesn't like to take the fight to the ground. Well… Cannetti is more willing to take the fight to the ground than Viana is, and is actually fairly proficient down there. Cannetti's aggression has not only cost him when he leaves himself open to be countered, but he is also prone to landing illegal strikes such as knees to a grounded opponent.
The Expectation: This is very much a coin flip fight, as it seems like it will degenerate into a brawl very quickly. I can't say who has more power and neither has shown an awesome chin, so I'll go with whomever has the advantage in athleticism. Viana via TKO in the first round
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