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COOLING: The Battle of Jose's Ribs; Why Aldo's Injury Adds Intrigue to UFC 189
Jun 29, 2015 - 2:15:43 PM COOLING: The Battle of Jose's Ribs; Why Aldo's Injury Adds Intrigue to UFC 189

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By: Will Cooling, MMATorch Contributor

If the UFC's Wrestlemania is their annual July 4 event, then UFC 189 is the organisation's Wrestlemania 19, as just two weeks away from the event we still don't know whether the Champion will be able to defend his title. The details are disputed, but we know for certain that featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo has badly injured his ribs, with doctors disagreeing about whether or not he will be able to fight.

The conventional wisdom is that it's a negative for the UFC that this news has made its way into the public domain. As is so often the case, the conventional wisdom is wrong.

After gamblers learned that Aldo was injured, Conor McGregor went from being the underdog to the betting favourite. This is common sense. Even if his ribs are just bruised that will undermine Aldo's ability to prepare for the fight, and diminish his movement during it. In particular those fearsome leg-kicks with which he'd be looking to control the distance and sap the challenger's explosiveness will become torturous to deliver. Worse than that, McGregor will know that a couple of stiff shots to the body may be all that's needed to make him the second man to hold the UFC Featherweight Title.

But here's the key thing, this shift in the odds makes the fight a more attractive proposition for the average North American pay-per-view buyer. We know that few in North America care about Jose Aldo; despite leading arguably the second deepest division in the promotion, events he headlines barely do better than those headlined by Demetrious Johnson. So the many, many buys that this fight is expected to garner above the UFC's 150,000 baseline are solely due to the ability of Conor McGregor to talk people into spending money on watching him fight for the championship.

The boasts of the Irishman are more believable in light of Aldo's injury. Whereas once everybody expected him to get killed by the champion, now people will be anticipating a title change. If you're a McGregor fan, which of these two scenarios is more likely to get you to pay to watch the fight? It is clearly the latter. By increasing the likelihood that McGregor will win the title, Aldo's injury encourages his fans to spend money on buying the event on pay-per-view.

Of course there will be those who say that the victory won't be legitimate, and that beating an injured Aldo will cheapen McGregor's achievement in the eyes of the fans. This ignores the strength of partisan fan sentiment. His legion of fans won't care that he beat a weakened Aldo, they'll revel in finally having their favourite as champion. This will be particularly true of his fellow Irishmen, who after all are hardly in a position to pick and choose from a deep roster of sporting world champions. And I'm sure many of them already feel embittered towards an Aldo whom they feel is trying to get out of the fight, or getting his excuses in early.

However, even neutral fans won't dismiss a victory earned in this way. Indeed, in many ways, should Aldo lose his title due to this injury then he will be seen as having had it coming. Aldo has had to withdrew due to injury from three fights since becoming UFC Featherweight Champion just over four years ago; his first defence against Josh Grispi was canceled, whilst his superfight against Frankie Edgar, and rematch against Chad Mendes, were postponed. There is a very good argument that Aldo has been reckless in training, and if these bad habits have finally caught up with him, then that's too bad. And of course the neutral fan will be encouraged to spend money on the fight in the heightened expectation that a title change is coming, only for these viewers the emphasis will be less on McGregor winning and more on the historic six-year WEC/UFC reign of Jose Aldo coming to an end.

But what about Aldo's Brazilian fans? They will undoubtedly be mad should he lose the title due to an injury, but in terms of generating revenue for this fight they are irrelevant. The UFC generates money from Brazilian fans through getting them to buy tickets for live events and its television deal with Globo Television. Both are already baked into the revenues for UFC 189 regardless of whether Aldo fights, let alone if he wins.

That anger will prove very useful should McGregor win. As I've already explained, McGregor partisans and many who are neutral will be inclined to see it as a fair win, but Aldo's fellow countrymen will have a very different view. That grievance will be the basis upon which a gigantic sequel will be booked, with a revitalised and healthy Aldo gunning to reclaim the title that he would undoubtedly claim he only lost because he was injured.

In many ways the Battle of Jose's Rib is pro-wrestling booking at its finest. You have a charismatic challenger against a dominant champion whom nobody believes can lose. Suddenly the champion is injured, and the challenger may now win the title in disputed circumstances. If that happens then McGregor as the new champion achieves instant credibility through winning the title, while Aldo as the former titlist is still plausible in a quick rematch due to having the excuse of his injury. The UFC potentially goes from having one big featherweight fight to having two.

Now all Jose Aldo needs to do is manage to drag himself into the Octagon on July 11! After all, we wouldn't want Chad Mendes ruining everything, would we!?!

Will Cooling is a regular contributor to Fighting Spirit Magazine, the UK's biggest and best pro-wrestling monthly. available worldwide through its Apple and Android App. Read this month's issue for his take on Fabricio Werdum's sensational victory over Cain Velasquez. FSM is available in all good British newsagents and internationally. He blogs about politics and sports at http://www.itcouldbesaid.com and you can get in touch with him via email at w.cooling@gmail.com or follow him on twitter @willcooling.