...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
This card was turning out to be ideal for a Fight Night card before injuries took their toll, not to mention Jessica Penne being removed from the card to go fight Jonna Jedrzejczyk for the Women's Strawweight Title next month. Not that the card sucks now, but there is a lot less intrigue and recognizable names. The main event and co-main event did emerge unscathed (thank the MMA gods!), meaning that the names the causal fans recognize are still intact. And despite the injuries, most of the replacements found were solid alternatives, even if they weren't considered to be at the same level as the ones they replaced.
The preliminaries feature perhaps the best flyweight that champion Demetrious Johnson hasn't beaten yet, one of the best prospects in the business, and one of the top fighters in the European scene making his debut. I'd recommend tuning in if you have the time... something that hasn't always been a given the last few weeks outside of UFC 187.
Rony Jason vs. Damon Jackson (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: Hard to say in this one. Both are coming off losses which means a job may be at stake, but this feels like a fight Jason is expected to win as a rebound fight.
The Fighters: Being one of the original TUF Brazil winners, many still look at Jason as a prospect, forgetting that Jason is already 31. It's doubtful he will get much better. That being said, Jason is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to realistically beat the majority of the division. With a freakish 73” reach on his 5'7” frame, Jason has traditionally been an aggressive fighter that usually overwhelms his opposition. He's lost some of that fire since a quick and violent KO at the hands of Jeremy Stephens, and needs to start throwing in greater quantity rather than one-off strikes. A talented BJJ artist, Jason often uses it as a deterrent for his opponents in taking the fight to the ground as he is merely an adequate wrestler. Considering he can easily submit opponents off of his back, the strategy isn't without merit.
Jackson was dealt a rough hand in facing massive lightweight Yancy Medeiros in his UFC debut on short notice, and was bullied around as expected. Back at his natural weight, this should be a much more accurate telling of Jackson's ability, though it should be noted he didn't embarrass himself. A grappler first, second, and third, Jackson's success is tied directly to his ability to get the fight to the ground. Often utilizing a low stance while throwing overhands, his striking is mostly used to close the distance into the clinch where he times his takedown attempts very well. Once on the ground, Jackson is very aggressive in advancing position and fishing for a finish whether it be with a submission or GNP. Far from a great athlete, Jackson is a grit and grim style fighter.
The Expectation: I like Jackson, but this is a bad matchup for him. Jason is a far better athlete and should be able to negate Jackson's submission abilities. I don't expect things to end well for the American. Jason via TKO in the first round
Jussier Formiga vs. Wilson Reis (Flyweight)
What's at Stake: The winner of this should be on the short list of potential title contenders within the year, as they are among the few near the top Demetrious Johnson hasn't disposed of... yet.
The Fighters: I believe Formiga would have already earned that shot ahead of Kyoji Horiguchi had he not been hurt before his scheduled fight with John Moraga back in December, as I believed he would have taken care of him, but I digress. The book on Formiga is simple: he is a grappling dynamo. He isn't a submission machine, but he is incredibly sticky and tough to shake, as there may not be anyone better at taking the back quickly than Formiga. He doesn't search for submissions, as his style is to wait for his opponent to make a mistake before capitalizing, but he has been effective nonetheless. He has made strides to present a formidable standup game, but it is still incredibly limited as he lacks power... even for a flyweight. But he has made it work for him when others likely wouldn't, and is still improving there.
Reis is an absolute bowling ball at flyweight, and a bit of a wild card as he made his transition to the division less than a year ago. Similar to Formiga, his grappling prowess is his primary strength, but where Formiga is graceful in his style, Reis is more like a bully. That makes it sound like Reis isn't skilled, which would be completely untrue. It's more that Reis utilizes wrestling to greater effect than Formiga as he owns a powerful shot that is damn near impossible for opponents to stop once he gets in on their hips. Though Reis isn't the most technical striker (still better than Formiga), he packs a lot of power into his strikes as he does a solid job of mixing in kicks. The fact that he keeps things simple works out very well to his advantage as he is rarely caught in a bad position.
The Expectation: Few have tried going to the ground with Reis out of respect to his ground skills. Formiga most certainly will test those skills. He'll try to create scrambles and control Reis while avoiding standing and striking. I don't discount Reis's ability to pull the upset, but I think Formiga will succeed in his strategy. Formiga via decision
Elizeu Zaleski vs. Nicolas Dalby (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Neither is in danger of being cut, as both are making their UFC debut… but who doesn't want to start their UFC career off with a win?
The Fighters: Zaleski is without a doubt a counter fighter, as he prefers to force his opponents to make the first move, thus why you see a lot of feints and leg kicks out of him as he awaits their move. He has backed himself against the cage waiting too long to pick up the aggression at times, but usually turns it up just enough to get himself out of that situation. A finisher in every sense of the word (13 of his 14 victories ended early), Zaleski has a killer instinct once he sees his opponent is hurt, swarming with a barrage of strikes. His grappling is merely passable, as he rarely looks to take the fight into that dynamic and every indication shows he'd have issues with merely a solid (not even great) wrestler. If he can get (and keep, another issue at times) a dominant position, his GNP is very impressive.
The last Cage Warriors welterweight champion, Dalby is hard to call a prospect at the age of 30. Nonetheless, Dalby is someone hardcore fans have wanted to see in the UFC for a while now. Utilizing a very kick-centric style, it is obvious he has a strong karate background. As he has progressed, Dalby has done a much better job of working in a steady boxing game and has been willing to engage in the clinch as well (though he could still use more polish there). While he moves a lot, he'll pause with frequency and present a hittable target at those times. He isn't a powerful wrestler, but has gotten better timing his level changes and appears to still be improving. His terrific balance has been a big key in helping him to stay on his feet.
The Expectation: Most are picking Dalby across the board, but I see this being a closer fight than what that would indicate. I still think Dalby wins thanks to a more versatile and well-rounded strategy, but I won't be shocked to see a Zaleski KO. Dalby via decision
Lucas Martins vs. Mirsad Bektic (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: Many view these guys as a big part of the future of the division… particularly Bektic. This is Martins' chance to really put the division on notice.
The Fighters: Martins is coming off of a loss to grinder extraordinaire Darren Elkins in his first step up in competition at featherweight. Martins didn't embarrass himself as he stuffed almost all of Elkins' takedowns and showed he can compete at that level. At 26, he still has plenty of room to improve. Even with that said, Elkins made it clear that Martins struggles when constantly pressured, as he is then reluctant to throw the kicks that are a big part of his arsenal. His kicks can be game-changers and he shows nice counter punching combinations. The only time Martins has looked to go to the ground is when he knocks his opponent there, indicating he only uses his wrestling knowledge to stay on his feet, making him a bit one-dimensional.
Bektic has every tool in his arsenal to do exactly what Elkins did to Martins, and he is also inherently more talented than Elkins. Bektic still needs to polish some aspects of his game (range striking for instance), but anyone who has seen him fight doesn't deny the exceptional athleticism and strength that make him a truly special prospect. He isn't as lanky as Martins, so anyone expecting him to test his striking will be sorely disappointed. What has been fully on display has been his explosive wrestling, impressive guard passing, and powerful GNP. He doesn't give up position easily once he's on top, and even worse for his opposition is he always stays busy. On his feet, he is most comfortable countering with little dynamism, and opponents need be wary of his violent blitzes.
The Expectation: This is certainly a step up for Bektic, but it doesn't appear to be a step that he can't handle. It's plausible that Martins gives him trouble on the feet and even scores a KO shot, but I see Bektic's explosive wrestling being more problematic than Elkins grinding style, which leads to a decision for the ATT representative. Bektic via decsion
Juliana Lima vs. Ericka Almeida (Women's Strawweight)
What's at Stake: A few wins can earn one a title shot in the new and shallow women's strawweight division… even for a newcomer like Almeida
The Fighters: Lima is one of the most well-rounded competitors in the still new division with her single UFC loss coming to the current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her striking is highly efficient, as she throws her punches in combinations while throwing in a good mix of kicks, and is a better wrestler than she is given credit for. The problem is that her defense leaves something to be desired, and she doesn't always know when to give up on a takedown, depleting her gas tank in the process. These are more strategy issues as opposed to a lack of talent, indicating that Lima could rise to the top of the division if she can fight a smarter fight. As a grappler, she won't embarrass herself, but would much rather pound out her opponent rather than try to submit them.
Almeida is taking this fight on short notice after Jessica Penne got rescheduled to fight Jedrzejczyk for the belt in June, and the gut reaction is to say she will likely be in over her head. She certainly has some skill and talent, but beating up cans and other prospects that aren't as far along as herself does little to promote confidence. First and foremost a grappler, she looks to clinch up right away and score a trip as soon as possible in order to get the fight to the ground. Once there, she is relentless in looking for a finish, whether it be with strikes or submissions… but it will usually be a submission she looks for, and snatching a limb in a scramble is a specialty of hers. She is very raw striking from a distance, but does possess some good dirty boxing and knees in the clinch.
The Expectation: I tend to think that Lima is underrated and Almeida is going to be in over her head. Lima will look to keep the fight standing, and should be able to pick apart Almeida from there, and probably even score a stoppage in the process. Lima via TKO in the second round
Luiz Dutra Jr. vs. Tom Breese (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Dutra is fighting to keep his job while Breese is a notable European prospect making his UFC debut.
The Fighters: Dutra made his UFC debut 17 months ago, lost by DQ for using illegal elbows, and has been on the sidelines ever since. To be fair, he did have to pull out of a scheduled fight due to injury, but he has only fought twice since 2010, making it very difficult to get an accurate assessment of where he is at in his progression. What is known is that he is a very intense and aggressive fighter who likes to wing haymakers that he swings in a wide arc, something a skilled striker can easily counter. He does possess a jab in his arsenal, but it is often underutilized. As the DQ loss illustrates, he can be overaggressive and I'm not just talking about his striking. He is a more than capable grappler, but has a tendency to favor submission over position and has paid the price.
Breese is a submission specialist who has yet to be involved in a fight in which the outcome wasn't him winning by submission. Granted, he hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row, but he has done what he is supposed to do and that is all you can ask. On his feet, he often looks awkward at range, as he is far from a skilled striker. His strikes are very fast and straight forward to prevent being countered, which has worked well enough for him thus far. He is far better in the clinch where he can utilize his long frame to score powerful knees and score takedowns using trips and body locks. On the ground, Breese is aggressive in looking for chokes, but rarely gives up an advantageous position in order to do so, and is equally aggressive off of his back. His biggest weakness seems to be a lack of wrestling.
The Expectation: Dutra is very much a wild card, as it is hard to say what kind of fighter he currently is as TUF is a different animal. I fear Breese's lack of top competition combined with his UFC debut going into a hostile environment is a lot for a youngster like him to overcome, so I'll lean towards Dutra in this one… with hesitancy. Dutra via decision
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
