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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
Once upon a time, UFC 186 was going to be another solid pay-per-view in a string of solid pay-per-views. It started with a Bantamweight Title fight and a highly anticipated welterweight contest with title implications. A failed drug test eliminated Hector Lombard from the equation, and Rory MacDonald was pulled as well. But we still had T.J. Dillashaw defending against Renan Barao and the welterweight fight was replaced with another title fight, this one with Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson defending against youthful Kyoji Horiguchi, a solid replacement. Then Dillashaw broke a rib, leaving the UFC with none of their original headliners and a greatly weakened card. At least Rampage Jackson was allowed to appear on the card… though it was only allowed in the nick of time.
My assignment is to preview the preliminaries, so why do I mention this? Well, the depth of the main card was killed and you could almost substitute any fight from the preliminary bouts into the first two slots of the main card and still maintain about the same quality. I would have been said the same of the first three main card bouts, but Rampage's re-addition provides some additional depth. So while I'm not going to sing praises about the preliminary bouts, they aren't in bad shape when one looks at them from proper context with the rest of the card. In fact, as wide open as women's strawweight is, Randa Markos vs. Aisling Daly, the very first fight on the card, could have more title implications than any fight on this card… outside of the actual title fight of course.
Patrick Cote vs. Joe Riggs (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Each of these long-time vets made their UFC debut over a decade ago and are likely fighting for more than just relevancy now… they're probably fighting for their jobs.
The Fighters: Once upon a time known as a feared striker in the middleweight division, Cote has not picked up a knockout win in the UFC since January of 2008… which was also the last fight in which he landed more significant strikes than his opponent. Since dropping to welterweight, he has become a grinder with some, but limited, success. Perhaps it has something to do with his newfound size advantage. He was never a big middleweight, but he doesn't have the explosion or technique in his wrestling to win with any consistency using that strategy. To be fair, he has improved since his early days, but he was limited in the direction that he could go. His chin still hasn't failed him, but he is 35 now and you never know when an aging fighter's chin will dissipate.
Riggs made a return to the UFC after an eight year absence in December and his night ended disappointingly with an odd neck injury that occurred as he took his opponent down. Few fighters have more mileage under their tread than Riggs, and his body may be breaking down. Or maybe it was just a freak injury. Once seen as one of the sport's great underachievers, Riggs has grown wiser as his skill level has declined. He can still do everything well, just without the explosion he once possessed. However, he also seems to have eliminated the dumb mistakes that plagued him. Between him and Cote, Riggs is the better wrestler and he has (like Cote) become more of a grinder over the last few years. Wanna bet that has something to do with less speed and a declining chin?
The Expectation: This all depends on Riggs' durability. Cote has always struggled against grinders (Tom Lawlor comes to mind) and Riggs is well suited to do that. But can his body and chin hold up? I can see Cote cracking at any point as well, but he hasn't yet, and I have to trust that as opposed to Riggs. Cote via TKO in the second round
Alexis Davis vs. Sarah Kaufman (Women's Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Both of these women have lost to the almighty Ronda Rousey, and will be clawing to remain relevant in the division against one another, as a loss will eliminate their already slim title hopes.
The Fighters: For some odd reason, Kaufman has never become much of a fan favorite despite her willingness to stand and trade with her opponents. Isn't that what the fans want? She does end up taking a lot of damage, but that has more to do with the aforementioned willingness than croppy defense, as she regularly lands far more than she takes. She is very technically sound, and puts combinations together quite well, but she doesn't have much power in her punches. People forget how good of a wrestler she is due to the fact she doesn't shoot for takedowns very often, but she is hard to take down, and is very wise in choosing her shots. Though she is usually solid on the ground, all of her losses have come via submission.
One can't help but wonder what type of shape Davis is in mentally after her devastating loss to Ronda Rousey last year. Will she be able to recover? It's worth mentioning that she has already lost twice to Kaufman. Davis has been mentally tough throughout her career, so it would be wise to expect her to come into the fight ready to rumble. Though she is known as a grappler in the eyes of most, she has come a long way in her striking from when she entered the sport, and can hold her own against most opponents. Despite her progress, she still has holes in her defense. She does her most damage in the clinch and with leg kicks on the outside. Another key element in her run to the title fight was implementing more of her sneaky takedowns into her arsenal, where she has displayed a nice top game despite no submissions recently.
The Expectation: Their second fight was very close and action packed, with Kaufman squeaking by. Kaufman is physically stronger, but doesn't use her strength advantage to its full extent. Considering Davis does a better job of mixing things up, I'll pick her for this one. Davis via Decision
Chad Laprise vs. Bryan Barberena (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Despite Barberena being the younger fighter, Laprise is the one the UFC is looking to groom due to his TUF Nations victory. He could be worth grooming if he can get past Barberena.
The Fighters: Laprise is a very skilled kickboxer, and is technically sound with little flash to his game. His lack of power (despite breaking Kajan Johnson's jaw) will limit him, but as well as he does everything else (angles, movement, combos, counters, etc.), there is no reason to believe he can't jump into the rankings in a year or two. Though he is heavy on leg kicks, he does a solid job of distributing his kicks to all areas. Actually… he mixes his punches up to the head and body too. Not the best offensive wrestler, he has proven to be good at timing his takedowns, and has shown great takedown defense with the ability to minimize the damage if he does get taken down. When in the dominant grappling position, he has a knack for taking his opponent's back.
Barberena is massive at lightweight, and does a solid job of using his size to his advantage… in close quarters. His most effective weapon from the outside is his low leg kicks, as he struggles to take full advantage of his reach. He realizes this and uses his flurries, which are capable of doing damage (though open to counters) to get in close on his opponent. In the clinch he is able to use his massive frame to wear down his opponent against the cage, using elbows and knees to great effect. It's surprising he isn't a more effective wrestler given his size, but he is very heavy from the top once he is able to get that position and relentlessly rain down heavy punches. He shows a good gas tank himself, so Laprise isn't likely to outlast him.
The Expectation: Barberena benefited from Joe Ellenberger having a shallow tank, but won't have that luxury against Laprise. Laprise's ability to time his takedowns well will, in addition to fighting from range, be too much for Barberena, but it should be a fun fight. Laprise via decision
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. David Michaud (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: The UFC is looking to groom Aubin-Mercier and Michaud is being set up to lose. Not that he doesn't have the possibility of winning…
The Fighters: Though few will argue that fellow TUF Nations finalist Laprise is the better fighter right now, most believe Aubin-Mercier has the brighter future. A former member of the Canadian national judo team, he has unbelievable base strength and a nice repertoire of throws in his bag of tricks. He isn't too shabby on the ground, either, and has a real knack for getting his opponent's back and sinking in a rear naked choke. Though he is making strides in his striking, he is still very raw. He is getting the basics down and looks more comfortable each time out, indicating he should become much more efficient striker in time, especially with the natural power he possesses. His favorite place to be on his feet is in the clinch where he can land some throws, but he is often so reliant on those his opponents know what is coming.
Michaud is a tough-as-nails wrestle-boxer whose ceiling doesn't seem to be as high as you'd think when looking at the sum of his parts. A lot of that has to do with his willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches while coming out on the short end of the exchange. While he does have a good chin, that is never a wise strategy, especially when one combines his penchant for winging hooks as opposed to going right down the middle, making him easy to counter. He doesn't mind the clinch, but that will be walking right into Aubin-Mercier's strength. Owner of a solid double leg, he is at his best when he remembers to mix things up to make his punches more unpredictable. Usually looking to score damage as opposed to hunt for submissions on the ground, he struggles to keep opponents on the ground.
The Expectation: I like the improvements that I saw in the standup in each of their sophomore efforts, and expect them to both look better there. Michaud might have a slight advantage there for now, but Aubin-Mercier is miles ahead on the ground. Michaud has holes in his submission defense that the young Canadian can expose. Aubin-Mercier via submission in the second round
Nordine Taleb vs. Chris Clements (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Nobody expects either of these veterans to move up the ladder, but they are two fun action fighters who should put on a fun show for the home crowd.
The Fighters: Taleb earned a reputation as a banger after his opening bouts in both TUF Nations and TUF19, but it is unfair to label him in that manner. A big welterweight, he has fought a smarter fight now that he is fighting at his natural weight, as he has been able to better implement his takedowns thanks to being the better fighter. Perhaps more importantly, he has been able to establish a jab and keep the fight at the pace he wishes to dictate instead of it degenerating into a slugfest. He mixes in leg kicks and good timing on his counters to maintain control. He isn't a submission threat, but is an underrated wrestler with solid top control in order to land his shots. He isn't superb in any one single category, but Taleb is solid in just about everything.
Clements is built like a bowling ball, compact with a lot of muscle on his frame. Notorious for throwing spinning attacks, Clements is about as close to a brawler as you'll get in high level MMA anymore. I'm not making any comparisons to Tank Abbott… more than anything I simply mean that Clements likes to throw down, and that is about all that there is to his game. He puts together solid combinations and makes good use of both his kicks and knees. You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone at this level who doesn't have a grappling advantage on him, but Clements is full of resilience and is a tough customer to deal with in the clinch as he has enough power that he doesn't need a lot of room to end a fight.
The Expectation: Clements could very well draw a brawl out of Taleb, and he sure is hoping to do just that. Taleb recognizes that he has been winning when mixing things up and fighting at a controlled pace. He'll probably get drawn into spurts of trading haymakers, but he'll dictate the fight enough to take home the decision. Taleb via decision
Jessica Rakoczy vs. Valerie Letourneau (Women's Strawweight)
What's at Stake: These two Canadians made their debuts at 135 lbs., and are hoping to find greater success at 115 lbs. They need to make an impression since few people care or notice… just saying.
The Fighters: Rakoczy hasn't fought since she lost in brutal fashion to Julianna Pena at the TUF 18 Finale 17 months ago. I don't know if she was dealing with injuries or what, but the timing works out for her as she was massively undersized in the bantamweight division, and shouldn't have to worry about being ragdolled as she was against Pena at her new weight class. When given room to operate during the tournament, she was able to display the boxing that made her a multiple time world boxing champion. Never the owner of great power, her technique is as sound as it gets. Rakoczy surprised many with her omoplata to get into the TUF house, showing she had a better than anticipated knowledge of submissions, though she is still a pretty weak wrestler.
While Letourneau was an undersized bantamweight, she'll be a HUGE strawweight if she is able to pull off the weight cut. Perhaps she is looking to use the size advantage to overcome her grappling deficiencies, as that is easily the biggest hole in her game… not that it is likely to matter against Rakoczy. Letourneau doesn't have the boxing pedigree of her opponent, but she is no slacker by any stretch of the imagination on her feet. She'll be at a disadvantage when it comes to pure boxing, but she is very well-versed in Muay Thai and she blends to two together very well, making her comfortable in all ranges. Her clinch work should serve as an equalizer to Rakoczy's boxing.
The Expectation: If only people would pay attention… This is my sleeper for FOTN as these ladies like to throw down in a way that makes Uncle Dana happy. There are a lot of questions, particularly how both do with the weight cut, as neither has cut that far before. But Rakoczy's age and high mileage from boxing make me wonder if she isn't on a downhill slope already. Letourneau via TKO in the third round
Aisling Daly vs. Randa Markos (Women's Strawweight)
What's at Stake: Strawweight is wide open, and a victory could get Daly a title shot, while a Markos victory will get her right into the thick of things.
The Fighters: Coming from the same camp as fellow countrymen Conor McGregor and Patrick Holohan, most see Daly as primarily a striker seeing as how she utilizes a similar unorthodox style. While there is no doubt that Daly is a sound striker, she actually has picked up more than half of her wins via submission, including her last five wins. Very physically strong, she uses her strength to great effect to manipulate her opponents where she wants to get them with her physical style of BJJ. Few opponents want to go to the ground with her. On her feet, her constant stance switching causes all sorts of issues for her opponents, but she tends to get caught with her hands low and allows her opponents to set the pace early on.
That spells good news for Markos, as she is very aggressive and looking to push the pace at all times. With a seemingly endless gas tank, Markos often is able to steal victory from her opponents simply due to the fact that they can't match her pace. It translates to both her grappling, as well as her striking, as she chains together submission attempts very well in addition to bullying her opponents around the cage with constant pressure, blitzing them with punches to great effect. She isn't afraid to take risks; that has gotten her into trouble at times and could be dangerous against a strong grappler like Daly. But what makes Markos is her unwavering belief in herself and she isn't about to change her style out of fear of what her opponent might do.
The Expectation: This feels like one of those fights that if it was fought 10 times, each one would win five, depending on how the cards played out. I've flipped-flopped and promise I'm not going to be confident no matter who I pick. I'll side with aggression and the hometown hero on this one as well as fate wanting to throw another wrench into the title picture. But don't say I didn't warn you if I'm wrong. Markos via decision
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