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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
Is there a better format for a UFC on FOX event than the upcoming UFC on FOX 15 card? I think not. It has everything except for an actual title fight you could realistically hope for. The main and co-main event are title contending bouts in an effort to clear up the muddled middleweight title picture. There is a featherweight affair with two high energy action fighters. And of course, sex appeal in the women's bout. All on the main card.
Normally you would expect the preliminary card to be fairly thin. But not so in this case. Three fighters on the undercard headlined the last card that they had participated in. Normally the preliminaries are full of quantity, but this time there is plenty of quality. There are up-and-comers who could be mentioned as title contenders by the end of the year, and there are a few that are near guarantees for fireworks. From top to bottom, UFC on FOX 15 is a better quality card than what UFC 186 is offering… and you don't need to pay for this one.
Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush (Lightweight)
What's at Stake: Longtime UFC veteran and gatekeeper Miller tries to keep his spot in the hierarchy while the young upstart Dariush tries to push his way into the rankings.
The Fighters: The normally durable Miller has been finished in his last three losses (though one of them was overturned into a no contest) after having never been finished in his career, indicating that the miles on his body are catching up to him. Though he is overall a very well-rounded fighter, he is at his best in a gritty ground affair, as few integrate wrestling and grappling as well as he does while effectively fishing out submissions. Lately he has struggled with lengthy opponents (as Dariush is) and has been outstruck in 7 of his last 8 bouts. Knowing he'll be at an athletic disadvantage (as he usually is), look for Miller to close the distance and push Dariush against the cage where he can wear down his younger opponent with knees and dirty boxing.
Dariush is fresh off of a dominant performance over Daron Cruickshank just a few weeks ago, and is stepping up on short notice. An impressive athlete and a true BJJ marvel (as his multiple BJJ championships attest to), his striking has been seen as a work in progress. Not anymore. Dariush's striking has improved rapidly (thanks to Rafael Cordeiro) to the extent that he outworked tae kwon do specialist Cruickshank. He showed improved footwork and head movement against Cruickshank making it difficult to land flush on him, something that had been an issue with him in his first few UFC fights. If Miller does get the fight against the cage, Dariush has proven solid in the clinch knees and trips, but he hasn't faced anyone nearly as proficient there as Miller.
The Expectation: This is a great matchup between the grizzled vet and the young lion. Miller is a tough out for anyone, but his durability has been in decline the last few years. Dariush is a difficult challenge physically and stylistically for him as well. Miller could sneak in a submission if Dariush gets reckless, but I expect Dariush to get him first. Dariush via submission of the second round
Ovince St. Preux vs. Patrick Cummins (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: In the shallow light heavyweight division, St. Preux and Cummins look to make a statement and break into the upper echelon of the division.
The Fighters: St. Preux is coming off of a 34 second demolition of Shogun Rua. If only he had done so when it still meant something. That shouldn't diminish what St. Preux is physically capable of, as he is athletically among the elite at 205 lbs. The former Tennessee linebacker is long and explosive and has better learned to use those skills on offense and defense… thus the quick destruction of a legend. He still has some defensive holes, but he is improving. In a division ruled by wrestling, he doesn't rely a whole lot on that aspect, but has had great success in shooting for the occasional double leg. Where he has had issues is stopping the takedowns of the true wrestlers of the division… something that Cummins represents. If he can keep the fight standing, St. Preux is the better athlete and striker by far.
Initially known as the barista-turned-fighter on short notice against Daniel Cormier, Cummins has proved to be a very good addition to a division in desperate need of bodies. Though he isn't a bad athlete himself, Cummins is still developing on his feet, and has very effectively taken that aspect of the fight away from his opponents, shooting for takedown after takedown and getting it with great efficiency. He hasn't shown any submission prowess, but that is fine as he is very active in applying his good-but-not-great GNP with a heavy base while also showing good submission defense. He does a solid job of setting up his shots with feints and is effective at scoring trips from the clinch. On his feet, he is stiff and reluctant to engage in punching exchanges.
The Expectation: While Cummins has looked good in his three wins, two of those opponents immediately dropped to middleweight after the loss and the other retired. He won't be able to bully St. Preux the way he did the others. He'll get some takedowns, but St. Preux will do more in the judge's eyes. St. Preux via decision
Corey Anderson vs. Gian Villante (Light Heavyweight)
What's at Stake: Not trying to disrespect these guys, but this bout will likely decide the best prospect in the division… even if that isn't much of a compliment.
The Fighters: Anderson is without a doubt the fighter with the higher upside as he is still very new to the sport of MMA, his professional debut coming just over two years ago. Unlike most that pass through the 205 lb. ranks anymore, he can't drop down any further as he is a big 205er and knows how to use that size to his advantage in the wrestling game. Did I mention that he was a Division III All-American wrestler? He has been a beast thus far with 9 takedowns in 16 minutes of Octagon time, but he hasn't faced an opponent with any wrestling prowess of their own. Villante will challenge that. As for Anderson's striking, he is still very raw despite having picked up some good boxing fundamentals. He is at his best in the clinch as he continues to develop from a distance, though his 79" reach is a big plus.
Villante has been a source of frustration for many as he has been unable to match the expectations that many have had for him. A faulty gas tank has been his biggest issue as he continually fades in each bout. At that point he becomes a human punching bag, as he is difficult to finish, but very hittable as he keeps his hands low. A collegiate wrestler and linebacker, Villante is a solid 205er himself with a lot of athleticism. He is at his best when he mixes up his wrestling and striking (mixing in body and leg kicks too) efficiently, but hasn't been as effective at getting his opponents to the ground as his accolades would make you think he should be. To be fair, he has shown good takedown defense to demonstrate his collegiate wrestling.
The Expectation: This is closer than it should be. Villante's talent and experience advantage should make this an easy win for him, but his inability to execute consistently doesn't make this academic. Anderson is the best wrestler Villante has faced, and even if he can't get Villante down, he should be able to control Villante against the fence and wear him down. Corey Anderson via decision
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Aljamain Sterling (Bantamweight)
What's at Stake: Mizugaki is a high level gatekeeper trying to rebound from an embarrassing loss to former champion Dominick Cruz while Sterling is trying to bust through the ceiling and pull the upset.
The Fighters: Mizugaki was riding a five-fight win streak before Cruz took him apart. He was able to win that many for a reason as he is as scrappy and durable as they come. He doesn't excel in any area, but is generally above average in all of them. Though he'll occasionally fall into his old standard of brawling, he largely resists falling into the habits from his early Zuffa days. Largely a boxer on his feet, he almost always throws in combination, but has to rely on volume rather than power to wear down his opponent. He is fairly selective in his takedown attempts, but usually successful in those attempts and utilizes a good top control game on the ground. He'll be at a disadvantage with pure athleticism against Sterling, but that isn't anything he isn't used to.
Sterling is a true athletic freak with many believing he has the ability to become champion someday. He looked fantastic in his sophomore UFC effort against Hugo Viana, but it should be noted that Viana lacks an adequate wrestling game… Sterling's strength. Sterling took him down at will and the Serra-Longo student demonstrated an improved BJJ skill set as he passed Viana's usually solid guard with relative ease and had some heavy GNP. He hasn't learned to utilize his reach advantage to great effect yet, but he is active from the outside with active movement that highlights his speed and athleticism to keep himself from taking much damage. He'll need to rely on that heavily as Mizugaki is easily the best boxer he has faced in addition to being rugged in the clinch.
The Expectation: The rankings may not reflect it, but this is a great match up. Sterling has all the physical tools in the world to be a contender and is getting great coaching. Mizugaki will provide a great measuring stick to see where he is in his development. Mizugaki has been in some wars and usually is only found wanting against the elite. Sterling isn't there… yet. Mizugaki via decision
George Sullivan vs. Tim Means (Welterweight)
What's at Stake: Neither of these guys will ever come close to the belt, but they are both relatively lanky sluggers who are tough as nails. Translation: Expect a hell of a fun action fight!
The Fighters: Sullivan has been a nice surprise to those who have noticed his work in the UFC. His victories over Mike Rhodes and Igor Araujo may not hold much name value, but he has looked good in disposing them. A BIG welterweight, his punching power is easily his greatest strength as he puts a lot of power behind each of his punches. It hasn't cost him yet, but he does tend to tire due to his massive weight cut and all the energy he puts behind his punches. That also makes him an easy figure to target in addition to his decreased output after the roughly the midway point of round two. He usually mixes in a good amount of kicks and is quick to pop up from takedowns. On the ground, he ignores submissions preferring to pound out his opponent with fight-stopping GNP.
Means is a bit more familiar to UFC fans with 8 appearances and a style that is crowd pleasing. Preferring to stand and trade himself, Means owns a long 75" reach, which he is quite effective in using with his jab a simple 1-2 combinations. Despite the reach advantage, he is at his best in the clinch where his elbows, knees, and dirty boxing really shines through. Sullivan will be the strongest opponent he has faced in some time, so it will be interesting to see how effective his clinch work will be. Means rarely shoots for takedowns, but has been adding them little by little in his repertoire more as of late and has been effective enough doing so. Similar to Sullivan, he doesn't often go for submissions and has proven effective at avoiding them as well.
The Expectation: There are a number of similarities between these two and it should be a closely contested affair. Both are very durable, but I gotta give it to Means based on his deeper gas tank and overall higher output. Means via decision
Diego Brandao vs. Jimy Hettes (Featherweight)
What's at Stake: I swear I wrote something on this recently… wait, I did! This fight was supposed to take place at UFC 183 before Hettes fell ill. It very well could be a loser-leaves-town bout.
The Fighters: The UFC really tried to turn Brandao into a star, but he was largely a finished product by the time he reached the UFC. That isn't to say that he doesn't have some untapped talent, but it is unlikely Brandao will change his ways this late in his career. What am I referring to? Brandao is a very emotional fighter who loves to brawl, going for a quick finish most of the time. His emotions and hard-swinging nature have caused him to deplete himself even before the first round is up more often than not. He does hit hard and can put his opponent to sleep with one-punch, but he has found the most success when he fights with discipline. His jiu-jitsu is more than competent, he has good takedown defense while being able to get his opponents down when needed, and is a good athlete. He just hasn't put it together.
Hettes' will no doubt look to get the fight to the ground where he can best implement his skilled BJJ game. The larger question is whether or not he'll be able to get the fight to the ground. Though he utilizes some good judo trips from the clinch, strength isn't a strong point of his and he is severely lacking in the wrestling department. Hettes does offer a bit of a matchup problem on the feet for many due to being a southpaw, but hasn't demonstrated finishing power in his strikes or the type of consistent output to make up for that. He is tough and durable enough that he can survive on trading strikes, but not thrive. If he can get the fight to the ground though, he is very dangerous and will either sniff out a submission or control Brandao.
The Expectation: If Brandao can control his emotions, he should take this. He was agitated by Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor in his last two losses and Hettes isn't an agitator. Brandao has all the advantages he needs to fight smart and win. Brandao via TKO of the third round
Eddie Gordon vs. Chris Dempsey (Middleweight)
What's at Stake: With both coming off loses and short resumes, there is a very good chance the loser gets a pink slip. Gordon's status as a TUF winner could give him a longer leash.
The Fighters: A powerful striker who is still young in his MMA career if not in actual age (31), Gordon was putting on a spirited performance against Josh Samman until he was caught by a single powerful head kick to put an end to his night. Gordon has fallen far due to that kick, most likely unfairly. He has become a solid wrestle-boxer who takes the fight to his opponent as he constantly moves forward. Before his untimely defeat, he mixed in takedowns and controlled the pace against the high-energy Samman. He still has some holes in his striking defense (where the head kick comes in), but is still young in his career and has excellent coaching at Serra-Longo.
Dempsey was completely dominated in his short-notice debut against Ilir Latifi, a fight that took place at 205. He should put on a much better showing at his natural weight class of 185, but it won't take much for his showing to be an improvement. A collegiate wrestle who is still developing his striking, Dempsey is very unsure of himself upon his feet and prone to being overwhelmed by aggressive opposition. He does possess a solid top game upon the ground delivering GNP and an improving submission game. He is far from a finished product (which is both good and bad) and has some good tools, but needs to sharpen his striking if he hopes to pull off the upset here.
The Expectation: While the UFC may not coddle their TUF champions the way they used to, they still want to see them do well in hopes of preserving some form of legitimacy for the long-running show. Thus an attempt to give Gordon a favorable match in Dempsey. Gordon is a much better striker than Dempsey and should garner a stoppage before 15 minutes is up. Gordon via TKO in the third round
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