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By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist This season was so low on drama that you can see more arguments take place at the Cracker Barrel between an elderly couple over a game of checkers as they wait for their table. Which is ok. I don't tune into this to watch Danny Bonaduce and Jonny Fairplay have a slap fight, or to hear about Lindsay Lohan posting topless photos on Twitter, but on a season which didn't exactly feature the best fights ever, it would have at least provided a little bit more entertainment.
This season's crop of fighters lacked a bit in both fighting ability and personality. Obviously, the talent pool has diminished and you are hardpressed to find an unknown MMA diamond in the rough in 2009 who isn't either already on the radar and with a top gym or fighting for one of the various promotions.
This is especially true now that the UFC has changed the rules and all fighters are required to have had three professional fights in order to be considered. Which, obviously, would have eliminated Amir Sadollah from the competition he ended up winning on season seven. While I get the notion that you are likely to get more polished fighters if those selected have fought professionally, you are really more likely to get guys who are unlikely to have the tools necessary to ever make an impact. Put it this way, if a guy has flown under the radar while hooking up with a respected gym and has posted a less than stellar record against non-UFC opponents the odds are that he will never be capable of fighting on the level of top UFC fighters.
The talent pool for this ninth season was one of the more shallow entries in the show's history, and collectively these guys had little to no personality either. Put it this way, the sushi from last season had more spunk in more ways than one than this entire crew. So, you take guys with no personality at all or guys with awful ones like Jason Dent and Jason Pierce and you get fighters who weren't really anything to watch while fighting who were now also completely unwatchable in the house.
So, here we are now and it is time to find out just who will win the contracts in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions, and this feels more like watching a home-schooled brother and sister be crowned Prom King and Queen by their mother. Because, there is no way I see any of these four fighters making an impact in their respective divisions in even the next two years, if ever at all. So, pretty much we are basically getting ready to watch 'American Idol' announce two winners who will probably end up losing their recording contract and wind up hosting a program on the TV Guide Channel.
Hell, Amir Sadollah is a former winner who hasn't even fought yet and he is pulling a Justin Guarini-esque move by hosting a little one minute "Inside the Octagon" promo segment on Spike TV. Saturday we will find out just who his co-hosts will be next season.
'The Ultimate Fighter' Lightweight Final
Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner
Andre Winner was penciled into this final a long, long time ago and looks to realize his dream of fighting in the UFC and making good on everyone's prediction. He will be facing fellow U.K. fighter Ross Pearson in what should be a spirited scrap between two fighters who are nearly on the same level.
Pearson made it this far by beating A.J. Wenn, Richie Whitson and Jason Dent. Winner made it by dispatching of Gary Kelly, Santino Defranco, and Cameron Dollar. Dollar and Dent are the two other lightweights with a modicum of talent so both Pearson and Winner had to beat favorites from the U.S. to advance to the finals.
Pearson has the edge in terms of strength and is a superior wrestler but he will be in trouble on the ground against Winner who has a solid submission game. Winner has the reach advantage and should be able to pick apart Pearson on the feet while keeping him at bay and if it hits the ground it should be his to win there as well.
Ross Pearson is a relentless little fireplug but I see no way possible for him to create a brawl in this one with the more polished Winner. If this one were to turn into an ugly, slugfest it could favor Pearson but there should be no reason for this to happen if Winner arrives ready to fight and follows the game plan.
Bent's Prediction: Andre Winner by 2nd Round Submission
'The Ultimate Fighter' Welterweight Final
Damarques Johnson vs. James Wilks
Much like Winner, Johnson was penciled in for the finals the moment this season's roster was revealed to the public. He is the most experienced of all of the fighters and trains out of one of the best gyms, in comparison to a guy like Ross Pearson who worked as a fulltime bricklayer until getting the chance to be on this show. Johnson is a fulltime fighter and has had a leg up on everyone. Both coaches, and even Johnson himself, knew he was the best fighter on the show, but being the best on this show does not suddenly mean you are truly a great fighter. Johnson can ill afford to sleepwalk into this bout and allow a guy like Wilks to take away what has been his all along.
However, I see nothing of the sort happening. Damarques Johnson is Mac Danzig and James Wilks is his Tommy Speer, and this one should be a relatively easy win for the most outspoken fighter of this season.
James Wilks will be able to hang tough and make it past the first round, but this is due to the fact that for the most part, he can match Johnson power for power. Wilks made it here by defeating Che Mills, and Frank Lester twice. Not exactly a murderer's row of bouts fought by any stretch of the imagination, but he is in the finals and must be commended for doing so. However, he did show a little bit of resolve as he was never flustered by Lester's manic aggression and this should serve him well for at least a round and a half against Johnson.
Damarques Johnson made it to the finals by besting the likes of Ray Elbe, Dean Amasinger and Nick Osipczak. These were not three of the hardest fighters in the world, and yet Johnson looked like a worldbeater against none of them except for Elbe who was just very, very outclassed. The excuses can be made that he was under the weather for a few days and unable to train along with the fact he like all of the others fought so many times in a short period of time, but these will no longer be excuses if he looks much the same against Wilks. I do not see this happening because he just has too much experience and raw talent to fail in the finals. Sure, he will win 'The Ultimate Fighter,' but this will end up being the equivalent of a GED as he sets foot into the division ruled by Georges St. Pierre.
Bent's Prediction: Damarques Johnson by 2nd Round Submission
Preliminary Card Predictions
Jason Dent over Cameron Dollar by way of Unanimous Decision
Cameron Dollar is a stud. I mean, he has "humped" a ridiculous amount of girls, including a friend's wife; but I am not talking about his carnal conquests but rather his fighting potential. He is indeed a stud and probably the best prospect of ALL the fighters this season.
A fighter like Dollar is a raw piece of clay which can be molded into something worthwhile if given the right camp and time to work on things. However, he simply has not had enough time to get there yet and will likely fall just short against Dent on Saturday. As much as I see potential in Dollar and would not mind if he were to win, my gut tells me it will go the other way against Dent.
Nick Osipczak over Frank Lester by way of 1st Round TKO
Look up overachiever in the 'TUF' glossary and you will find a picture of a beaten up Lester looking like Alfred E. Neuman after having been tuned up by a bunch of MS-13 gang members. Lester gives it his all and teeth be damned will fight until there is no fight left.
He just simply doesn't have the skills to stay in there against guys on another level in terms of skills. Osipczak didn't crumple against the likes of Damarques Johnson and he surely will not fall to Lester on Saturday night. Lester will go down in the history books of 'TUF' as one of the toughest fighters to ever compete on the program, but he will just be going down on Saturday night against Osipczak.
Tomasz Drwal over Mike Ciesnolevicz by way of Unanimous Decision
Styles make fights and the power of Drwal against the submission skills of Ciesnolevicz will make for a solid back and forth battle on Saturday night. Neither one of these men is a contender in the light heavyweight division yet, but both are potential prospects, and this one should be fun little tilt for those in attendance. The folks at home will not be seeing this one make air due to time constraints and this one should see Drwal earning a victory the hard way over Ciesnolevicz who will not go easily into the night.
Brad Blackburn over Edgar Garcia by way of 1st Round TKO
Blackburn hasn't always been on the rise and he will be facing an opponent who has done nothing but that over the course of his young career. It just isn't time for Garcia yet, as he will crumple on the main stage against the more experienced foe who has fought and beaten better opposition under brighter lights. This is a blessing in disguise for Garcia as a loss here will take him off of the radar as an undefeated prospect and allow him to hone his craft more before making an impact. Garcia will make an impact but on Saturday it will be made when he crashes to the canvas.
Gleison Tibau over Melvin Guillard by 2nd Round Submission
"The Young Assassin" will be put to sleep on Saturday night when he takes on an opponent who will not fear him in any way, shape or form. Tibau will be able to match Guillard step for step and has the chin to handle all of his punches. Is Guillard's knee healthy? Can he pass the post fight piss test? These questions will be answered on Saturday night, but it is likely they will be done after Gleison Tibau answers questions about his having choked out the reckless fighter.
Well, these are of course my predictions, and as always I do not suggest for any of you to take a payday advance and hit up the online sportsbooks in hope of making a mint off of these happening on Saturday. Anything can and will happen in MMA, but this is what I predict for 'The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale' at The Palms in Las Vegas.
Remember to check out my main card preview and prediction articles for the Sanchez-Guida, Stevenson-Diaz and Lytle-Burns bouts, and as always keep it right here at www.mmatorch.com for all of your MMA wants and needs.
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