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BENT: Previewing The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale - Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz
Jun 17, 2009 - 8:57:21 AM BENT: Previewing The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale - Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz

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On the night which will crown the third lightweight winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter' it should come as no surprise that lightweights take center stage on a card loaded with compelling match ups. Obviously we have a stellar main event of Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida and the 'TUF' lightweight battle, but buried in between is what looks to be a fantastic bout pitting Joe Stevenson against Nate Diaz.

Joe Stevenson most recently fought in a losing effort against Diego Sanchez in February at UFC 95 in what was considered an amazing bout by nearly everyone who witnessed it. While he did lose to Sanchez, he at least gained back a lot of credibility as a top contender which vanished following his dismantling at the hands of Kenny Florian in their bout at UFC 91. Stevenson is most famously a winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter' himself, albeit in the welterweight division as featured on 'The Ultimate Fighter 2,' but since dropping down in weight he has more than proven himself not only a capable fighter but a potent contender just on the cusp of that next level.

If he expects to once again earn a title shot it is an absolute must that he defeats Diaz, and do so in convincing fashion. This is not to suggest that Stevenson shall never again find himself in the title picture, but a loss to Diaz would mean his fourth loss in five fights, and that alone would seem to suggest that he would have to worry more about job security than anything else. Stevenson is a gamer, and a legitimate mixed martial artist with a wrestling background and black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but so far he has shown that he is not on the level of the very elite in the division. Sure, he can hang with them at times and give a fair showing of himself, but he simply has not been able to get the wins when he has needed them the most. None can be more important than when he stands in there with Nate Diaz, and we will soon find out if he can once again find himself in the title picture or forever on the outside looking in.

Nate Diaz is also a former winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter' as he won the "six figure contract" in the lightweight division on season five. Nate is of course the younger brother of Nick Diaz, and like his brother is a product of Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, but what is most astonishing is that he is only 24 years old. Nate is not nearly as proficient a striker as his brother, or even as good on the ground, but it is not like we are comparing Billy Ripken to Cal Ripken, Jr. here. Nate is a burgeoning star and has only begun to scratch the surface and realize his potential in this sport.

He takes this next step when he faces Joe Stevenson, and a victory will certainly take away some of the sting that he felt in suffering a disheartening split decision loss at the hands of Clay Guida at UFC 94. Obviously this fight could have gone either way, and it definitely didn't go Nate's way, but he didn't exactly embarrass himself with his effort on that night. He was riding a five fight winning streak going into the bout with Guida and looks to put his name back into the winning column and start work on another streak by taking out Joe Stevenson and giving the Diaz brothers' trademark middle finger to those who have ever doubted him.

Joe Stevenson has compiled a career record of 34 wins against 10 losses with 6 of those wins coming by way of knockout and 14 by submission. Some of the notable names he has beaten include Yves Edwards, Kurt Pellegrino, and Gleison Tibau. Those who hold victories over Stevenson include such fighters as Jens Pulver, Josh Neer, B.J. Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Stevenson is obviously a very experienced fighter based on the amount of bouts he has competed in but the quality of opponent ranks right up there with the quantity. Stevenson is only 27 years old but has fought a career's worth of bouts and been in a few wars over the course of his career.

Based on his age he is not an old fighter, but the amount of fights he has had, along with the number of rounds sparred in the gym, could possibly catch up with him sooner rather than later. However what he needs now is a win as his future in the UFC does not look bright should he continue his streak of losing more than he wins. Stevenson was just a short while ago considered to be one of the very top fighters in his division, and his most recent performance against Sanchez proves this true, but a loss to Diaz will push him down in the ranks considerably.

Nate Diaz' career record stands at 10 wins against just 3 losses with 2 of those wins coming by way of KO and 7 by submission. Notable names Diaz has bested include the likes of Manny Gamburyan, Junior Assuncao, Kurt Pellegrino and Josh Neer. Those who hold victories over young Diaz are Koji Oishi, Hermes Franca and Clay Guida. Nate has won "Fight of the Night" honors on two occasions and "Submission of the Night" once.

It was the bout in which he won the latter which drew the most attention, however, as he forced Kurt Pellegrino to submit to a triangle choke in their bout at 'UFC Fight Night 13,' and in the process of forcing his foe to tap, he flexed for the crowd and threw up double middle fingers. However, this moment of machismo should not take away from that which he accomplished in submitting the very tough Pellegrino, which was enough of a statement on its own. The Diaz brothers are so synonymous with the middle finger it is likely they threw them up at the birth doctor as they left their mother's womb, but based on their respective talents, this has simply been their way of declaring they are number one. Well, Nate Diaz will not be number one if successful against Joe Stevenson, but it will take him one step closer to his ultimate goal, and the next person flipping the bird may just be the fighter forced to stand across from him in the Octagon.

Bent's Prediction: Nate Diaz by way of Unanimous Decision

Stevenson is the stronger of the two, and the much better wrestler, but he should not be too quick in taking this to the ground as Diaz' BJJ is something he will not want to have to contend with. I look for Diaz to utilize his superior reach and befuddle Stevenson in the striking game while being able to use his elusiveness to escape whenever he finds himself trapped by his opponent. Diaz is good enough to not get into trouble on the ground, and as such he should be able to keep this one standing and win this one on the feet.