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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor
No one is going to mistake this event for anything other than what it is: a three fight card. Few will recognize many of the names other than those at the top of the card which makes for a preliminary card that few will care about. Well… few in the states. Fans need to keep in mind that the event is taking place in Sweden, and while there aren't any names that currently jump out or seem as if they will in the near future, the UFC tends to cater to the home crowd, and rightfully so. Though it might be more accurate to say they cater to the home continent, as the great majority of the fighters on this card are European.
If there is anyone to keep an eye on, I'd turn to Konstantin Erokhin. The heavyweight prospect could make his way up the heavyweight standings with speed thanks to the lack of depth, and thanks to the relative long shelf life of heavyweights, his age (32) isn't a real concern. Then again, Mirsad Bektic is a more well-rounded prospect…. Ah hell, watch out for both of them.
Nico Musoke vs. Albert Tumenov (Welterweight)
This looks to be a very evenly matched pair of welterweights on a similar trajectory… though someone's course is gonna be altered.
Musoke has quietly established himself as a mainstay in the UFC with a 3-1 record, with the lone blemish coming to Kelvin Gastelum. Many thought of him as a grappler after his debut submission of Alessio Sakara, but he is a better striker. While he is strong enough to control and wear out his opponent against the cage with knees and short punches, that strength doesn't translate to one-punch power. He does utilize a solid jab and mixes in fluid kicks. His wrestling is merely adequate, and he struggles to get the fight to the ground, but he has proven that his guard needs to be respected.
There is no question whatsoever that Tumenov is a striker, as both of his UFC victories have come in the first round via KO. His combination of hand speed and power will make him someone to watch as he continues to improve (he only just turned 23). He showed tremendous accuracy with his kicks against Matt Dwyer in his last outing as well. He is at his best countering his opponent as he can get wild at times and leave himself wide open for a takedown or be countered himself. His grappling is still fairly raw as he often relies on his raw strength to get out of danger. It could very well cost him at some point.
This is a VERY close match and I've been going back and forth. Musoke will have the home crowd behind him as well as the wrestling and grappling advantage. That, along with his solid chin, should be enough. Musoke via decision
Sultan Aliev vs. Kenny Robertson (Welterweight)
There is very little that can be said to put a fun spin on this fight… so I'm just gonna skip trying to do that.
Aliev will be making not just his UFC debut, but his welterweight debut. He has some pressure on him. Patience is the name of his game, as he is content flinging a nice jab out with some leg kicks as he looks for an opening to either land a power shot or get inside his opponent's defense for a body lock takedown. His defense is fantastic, as he is a great counter puncher in addition to showing good movement to avoid his opponent's strikes. On the ground, he relies on pounding out his opponent as little has been seen of his grappling.
Robertson will clearly want to push the pace as Aliev likes to keep it slow, and its unknown how well his first weight cut to 170 will go. He is very capable of doing that, and is a fairly accurate puncher even if he doesn't pack a lot of power. He often leaves himself wide open as he swarms his opponent with punches to close the distance. He isn't powerful on his takedowns, but is relentless and crafty… kind of like his grappling. Most of Robertson's victories have come via submission as he is very creative (see his leglock of Brock Jardine) in addition to his tendency to stay busy.
This is another close bout that could very easily go either way. Aliev has shown great composure, and his countering seems like it would provide issues for Robertson, especially as Robertson goes for the takedown. Aliev via TKO in the second round
Andy Ogle vs. Makwan Amirkhani (Featherweight)
Everyone's favorite try-hard Ogle welcomes the former Mr. Finland runner-up Amirkhani to the UFC.
It is damn near impossible not to like Ogle as he is the ultimate underdog: not the most physically gifted, he doesn't know how to quit, and if there is another fighter with more heart, I'd like to see him. He doesn't pack a lot of power in his punches, but will stay in his opponents face and has proven hard to put away, whether it be via submission or knockout. If Ogle is going to pull this out it will be with pure volume striking, as he has limited finishing skills to get a one-off finish despite a solid kickboxing background. Still, he is always a tough one to count out.
With eight of his ten wins via submission, it's easy to call Amirkhani a submission specialist. While it isn't completely true, it isn't untrue either. Talented at chaining together submissions, Amirkhani is more of a risk-taking wrestler than a true grappler, as he doesn't live by the 'position over submission' creed at all. He'll dive at the slightest opening, often times putting himself at a disadvantage when nothing materializes. It has worked on the lower levels, but that has rarely paid dividends in the UFC. He doesn't like to stand and trade as he looks to either clinch up or shoot for the takedown as soon as possible.
This is another hard one to figure. Amirkhani is the more physically imposing of the two, but Ogle's scrappy kickboxing will give him problems as Amirkhani has shown little on the feet. Ogle's toughness and Amirkhani's low fight IQ lead me to say Ogle. Ogle via decision
Stanislav Nedkov vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight)
Wait… Nedkov is still in the UFC? Really? Wow. Well… don't expect this one to go the distance.
Though it has been two years since he last stepped in the Octagon, Nedkov returns to the light heavyweight division after a foray at middleweight. With a strong wrestling base, Nedkov prefers to set up takedowns with some heavy roundhouse punches to his opponent. Either it floors them or stuns them enough for him to go with his strong double leg and pounds them out from there. Though his strategy is no secret, his stocky frame is hard to stop, though he does struggle with rangy opponents.
Speaking of rangy, Krylov will have almost 7 inches of reach on Nedkov, and will almost certainly take advantage of that. His technique has improved exponentially since he first debuted and mixes in a lot of kicks (including to the head) with his jab. He showed improved clinch work in his last outing too with some very good knees and uppercuts. He has shown very little ability to get the fight to the ground so far and very badly needs to address that in addition to his inability to prevent opponents from grounding him. If he can get the fight to the ground, he has solid submission defense in addition to the majority of his victories coming by way of tapout, though he often gives up position risking the submission attempt.
This will likely degenerate into a sloppy brawl, as both have had stamina issues but are willing to trade. Nedkov will almost assuredly get the fight to the ground at some point too, but hard to say if he'll accomplish what he hopes. Krylov's career is trending upwards though, so… Krylov via TKO in the third round
Mairbek Taisumov vs. Tony Christodoulou (Lightweight)
This is a classic striker vs. grappler, with Taisumov serving as the former and late replacement Christodoulou the latter.
Taisumov is trying to reclaim his status as a hot prospect and got off to a good start with a beautiful TKO victory over Marcin Bandel in his last outing where he showed more pop in his punches than had been previously suggested. He's always been a technically sound and well-rounded striker whom opponents respected. If the power is there to stay, he could become feared. He has a nice array of takedowns, and has proven to be adapt at sinking in rear-naked chokes, but has struggled defensively with his wrestling against larger and wrestling-centric grapplers.
Christodoulou might be a grappler, and a fairly large lightweight, but he isn't much of a wrestler. That doesn't mean that he doesn't stand a chance, as he has a superb ability to draw his opponent into the brawling style that he thrives on. Christodoulou has a solid chin ,which allows him to succeed in those brawls, but he'll have a lot of issues if Taisumov is able to keep his distance. Christodoulou hasn't shown much when it comes to takedowns (not much of wrestler, remember?), but is very top heavy and stays busy from there with punches and elbows creating openings for submissions when he gets it on the ground.
Christodoulou struggled against striker Yosdenis Cedeno in a loss and Taisumov is a more technical striker (if slightly less explosive). You know where this is going. Taisumov via decision
Konstantin Erokhin vs. Viktor Pesta (Heavyweight)
These heavyweight prospects don't tend to go the distance. Translation: someone is going to sleep.
Erokhin has scored first round KO/TKO's in 8 of his 9 victories despite not owning the prototypical heavyweight frame (he is only 5'11 and about 230 lbs.). He finds his success with brutally powerful hook combinations. He doesn't offer much else striking as leg kicks are rare and jabs even more rare, but he is very efficient at finding a home for his punches thanks to the blazing speed he is able to fire them off at. He usually finds his opening off of a counter as he is good about conserving his energy and only taking the openings he sees. Little has been seen on his ground work besides finishing punches, but he has proven difficult to takedown despite facing some much larger opponents.
Pesta is a less heralded prospect coming off of a competitive loss in his UFC debut to Ruslan Magomedov. He'll want to do everything he can to close the distance on Erokhin to avoid giving him the space he needs to land those bombs. The good thing for him is that plays to his strengths. A ground and pounder, he has been improving the technique in his double legs (but still has a long ways to go) and has devastating knees from the Muay Thai clinch. The dangerous part will be closing the distance as he tends to rush in wildly swinging… not a good strategy against a counter striker like Erokhin.
Pesta does have potential to hang around and become a mainstay for the division for quite a while (he is only 24), but he plays right into Erokhin's power. This shouldn't last long. Erokhin via KO in the first round
Mirsad Bektic vs. Paul Redmond (Featherweight)
The heavily hyped Bektic is being fed a very late injury replacement in Redmond. It might be appropriate to pray for Redmond.
Where to begin with Bektic? He is one of the most physically skilled fighters in the world… he just needs time to develop those abilities. His usual strategy is aggressive one-two combinations which force his opponent backward whether they land or not. From there, he ducks under for a double leg takedown and lands some of very brutal elbows and punches on top of his opponent. He is well-rounded enough as a striker to either be the aggressor or wait for the counter and has very sound technique. He did struggle a bit with Chas Skelly's length, and that might be a factor with Redmond.
Redmond is taking this with less than two weeks notice and has never fought at 145, so there are numerous concerns as he goes into this fight. If he can overcome those, he has some talent and thus a chance. Backwards is a foreign concept to him, as he is constantly pushing forward throwing punches. Striking isn't his forte, though, as he is very adept at submissions. He subscribes to the idea that the best defense is a strong offense from the guard (both submissions and strikes), and has numerous wins via heel hook, meaning opponents need to be wary where they leave their limbs.
Redmond has a full plate to overcome besides just his opponent and Bektic is pretty damn good. It will be too much for the Irishman. Mirsad Bektic via TKO in the first round
Neil Seery vs. Chris Beal (Flyweight)
Irishman Seery welcomes Beal to the flyweight division as the former TUF contestant drops from 135.
It is hard not to like Seery. He's a tough bloke who loves to stand in the pocket and bang… what more do fans want? To call him a brawler would be a disservice to his boxing skill, as he is very effective at putting together combinations and has never lost via KO/TKO outside of injury, a fair testament to his ability to slip his opponents punches. He has improved his submission defense greatly as it has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, and has also shored up his takedown defense as well, though neither could be called strengths.
Beal was considered to be a low power, high volume boxer as he made his UFC debut. However, he was able to show explosion with his flying knee KO in his debut and some solid offensive wrestling in his sophomore effort, answering a number of his critics. There are still a number of critics, though, as he struggled more than it was thought he would with Tateki Matsuda on his feet. He appeared lazy with his movement in avoiding Matsuda's strikes. If Beal works on his footwork, he could become a force in the flyweight division despite showing little submission ability.
This is hell of a good choice to open up the card. Expect them to stand and trade, but Seery shows better all-around skills with the occasional takedown, kicks, and better movement that he should walk away with a clear victory. Seery via decision
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