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D. FOX: Preliminary card preview for UFC Fight Night 58 "Machida vs. Dollaway"
Dec 17, 2014 - 3:55:18 PM D. FOX: Preliminary card preview for UFC Fight Night 58 "Machida vs. Dollaway"

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By: Dayne Fox, MMATorch Contributor

As it seems to be with all Fight Night preliminary card fights these days, the offering of recognizable fighters is quite sparse this weekend, with Darren Elkins representing the only fighter in the UFC rankings. On top of that, his style hardly makes him a fan favorite. So maybe there are prospects for the future… right? Not really. Yuta Sasaki appears to be the only name worth keeping an eye on for big things in the future, but he isn't exactly a sure thing to be a contender by any means. Whether we complain about it or not, this is what we've got. Let's take a look:

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Igor Pokrajac (Light Heavyweight)

TUF Brazil 3's de Lima drops down to light heavyweight to face Pokrajac. Wait… what is Pokrajac still doing in the UFC?

De Lima was seen as a hot prospect at light heavyweight a few years ago before a couple of losses derailed the hype behind him. He is no doubt talented enough to pick up some wins in the thin light heavyweight division, as he is a skilled kickboxer with heavy kicks, making his skill set a bit unusual at 205 lbs.. His Muay Thai should be accentuated by no longer needing to clinch with larger opponents at heavyweight. His struggles on the ground are what will keep him from living up to his former hype, as his wrestling is sub-par, and his BJJ, though better than his wrestling, needs work as well.

So does Pokrajac have what it takes to derail de Lima? If you look strictly at his record over his last few fights the answer is a resounding no. He hasn't picked up a win in his last four appearances and only a Joey Beltran failed drug test prevented them all from being losses. While his foundation was wrestling, it hasn't effectively surfaced itself at the top level. If it is going to manifest itself, he isn't going to get a better opponent than de Lima for that to happen. On his feet, Pokrajac does have power and is a very efficient dirty boxer, but struggles in space… where de Lima will try to keep the fight.

Pokrajac has not looked good at all in his last four fights, indicating a decline. At 35, it shouldn't be much of a surprise. De Lima will keep enough distance to land some powerful shots and dictate the fight. De Lima via Decision


Tom Niinimaki vs. Renato Carneiro (Featherweight)

If you appreciate a good duel between two grapplers, this is the match for you. Otherwise… I guess don't watch, or deal with it.

Niinimaki is a longtime veteran who has been a respected grappler. Problem is, he showed that he can be overpowered and outwrestled by larger opponents. While he isn't a great wrestler, he does do a solid job of blending it in with his BJJ, which allowed him to go to the ground with renowned grappling champion Rani Yahya. His standup is very basic, as boxing is his primary striking base. His defense is usually the best part about his standup as he largely accumulates points with his punches and kicks while usually avoiding the big shot. Sounds boring, right? It pretty much is.

Carneiro is a late notice replacement for Rony Jason, but he shouldn't be looked at as fodder for Niinimaki. He's a legit prospect. His striking won't excite anyone as his punches serve more as counters without a lot of power and he mostly leg kicks outside of that. He has proven difficult to take down on the Brazilian circuit, but that isn't the same as the wrestler-heavy American scene. Niinimaki should be his greatest test there. He's got a knack for getting his opponents back and sinking in a choke, but he is versed in other submissions also as his BJJ is more than solid.

This is a tough pick. Carneiro's late notice could create a bad weight cut, but Niinimaki has lost two in a row in a bad fashion. Is he on the downslide? At 32, he very well could be as he has a lot of miles on his body. Home field advantage will swing it to Carneiro for me. Carneiro via Decision


Darren Elkins vs. Hacran Dias (Featherweight)

Elkins has entrenched himself as a gatekeeper, and Dias is the next to knock on the door. A loss for Dias could mean more than just denial to greater challenges… it could mean a pink slip.

Never was the last time someone got excited about the possibility of watching a Darren Elkins fight, as he is the epitome of a grinder. Fortunately for him it has worked, as he has gone 7-2 since his drop to featherweight, with his wrestling and size proving difficult to stop for most opposition. If forced to stand, he has a little bit of power in his pop, but hardly enough to consistently earn victory. He's at his best grinding (there is that word again) against the cage with elbows and dirty boxing as opposed to using his boxing in the open.

Dias hasn't exactly faced easy opposition, as he has lost two in a row (against Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas) and even had his moments in those fights with some believing he beat Lamas. But not many survive in the UFC with three losses in a row. He is much more diverse than his opponent, but hasn't shown any explosion in his offense in his UFC stint. That may be due to his facing numerous wrestlers which limits his dangerous kicks due to fear of being taken down. He's done well at making his opponents work for those takedowns, but more is needed to walk out with a win. A solid grappler himself, he has some nasty chokes if he can establish dominance on the ground.

Dias flies under the radar with most fans, but he is a quality featherweight, and fully capable of getting the win here without it being a major upset. In fact, I'm willing to pick him here as Elkins has struggled to get his opponents to the ground as of late. I might kick myself later, but… Dias via Decision


Yuta Sasaki vs. Leandro Issa (Bantamweight)

After bursting on to the UFC scene with an explosive performance against Roland Delorme, Sasaki gets his next challenge in veteran Issa.

Sasaki is a big and long bantamweight at 5'10”, and has done a good job utilizing his height effectively, as he has developed a nice jab and some good kicks to all areas. He does have some holes that could be exploited by an experienced striker, but that wouldn't be Issa. His striking is only going to improve, as his power continues to develop. As far as his grappling, he can be reckless at times going for submissions (flying triangle for instance), but is usually technically sound and has a penchant for chokes. His wrestling is good too, but he can get lazy at times and give up dominant position.

Issa is one of the best pure grapplers in the division, but this is MMA, not a jiu-jitsu tournament. If he is able to get the fight to the ground, he is at a huge advantage. Opponents are very reluctant to go to the ground with him as a result, and his takedowns would best be described as clingy, as he dives for a single and holds on for dear life once he gets a hold of the leg. Though it hardly strikes an intimidating look for him, it has been fairly successful for him. His striking has improved over the years, but is still a long ways from being top flight. Knowing his limitations, he throws a lot of leg kicks and has developed an adequate jab. He can look out of control at times as he throws overhands, but those are primarily to close the distance for a takedown.

Sasaki is the better athlete and more well-rounded fighter here by a long shot. Issa can win if he can get it to the ground, but Sasaki can likely survive long enough on the ground and even escape enough to be able to pull out the win. Sasaki via TKO in the second Round


Marcio Alexandre Jr. vs. Tim Means (Welterweight)

Not sure what the UFC is doing here. Alexandre is coming off of a loss in the TUF Brazil 3 finals and Means is a tough vet who picked up a win in his last appearance. Does the UFC not like Alexandre?

Alexandre does have some potential, but he hasn't received any favors building up his record on cupcakes on the regional scene. A karate stylist who fancies Lyoto Machida enough to have himself be dubbed Lyoto, Alexandre does have some impressive head kicks in his arsenal. Problem is, he doesn't have much else that is effective at this point. He lacks even an adequate wrestling game, and though he is better at BJJ than wrestling, he is still going to come up short against most UFC competition he faces. He'll need all sorts of space in order to be successful.

The bad news for Alexandre is that Means isn't likely to provide it. Means is a southpaw who throws punches in bunches, staying in his opponents face the full 15 minutes. Though he does well utilizing his 6'2 frame from a distance, he is best in close quarters where he throws a litany of elbows and knees as well. So far he has only fallen to wrestlers as takedown defense is by far his biggest hole. But it isn't like he'll have to worry about that with Alexandre…

Alexandre's chances of winning this are slim. He could land a head kick based on a prayer, but that seems to be the only way he walks out of the Octagon victorious. Means will grant him little opportunity to do so. Means via TKO in the first Round


Jake Collier vs. Vitor Miranda (Middleweight)

The opener for the card should be an entertaining scrap between two strikers. Should be a fun one.

Collier returned from well over a year off in October to take the RFA Middleweight Title, and looked great in doing so. He is primarily a boxer who almost always throws in combination. He does a good job in finding holes in his opponent's defense to exploit, and is good in close quarters, primarily utilizing a Muay Thai clinch. He has scored some RNC victories as of late, but he often sets those up with his strikes rather than being able to out-grapple his opponent, and is still quite raw on the floor. While it sounds like an insult to say his ground and pound is the best part of his ground game (and I acknowledge it kind of is), it is pretty damn good.

Miranda has more than a little bit of experience in professional kickboxing and it shows itself well when it comes to his fighting style. The problem is that despite making his MMA debut more than a decade ago, he is still very raw on the ground. Lucky for him, Collier isn't exactly a guru there, either, but he is probably better than Miranda. Miranda does have a deep bag of kicks that he delivers to all parts of the body, as well as some very powerful knees from the clinch. The biggest question facing Miranda is how he handles the cut to 185 lbs., as the lowest he has previously fought was at 205. Cutting weight doesn't get easier as you get older, and he is now 36.

This is very much a coin flip. Miranda has experience and home field on his side while Collier has made the weight cut plenty of times, something Miranda never has done. Collier's better all-around game and the questions with Miranda's weight cut is what sways me. Collier via Decision