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By: Jason Bent, MMATorch Columnist The semi-main event of UFC 94 looks to be a decidedly more subtle affair than the main event, and in terms of bombast it is one which flies under the radar, but this one has all the makings of a great fight. If Lyoto Machida were more of a crowd-pleasing fighter in terms of his style and this fight were on another card, it is likely that we would be talking about a main event to determine the next challenger for Rashad Evans' UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. As it stands we have a fantastic fight between two of the very best, and it is not really getting the attention it should because of Machida's relationship with the fans.
Machida would have had a title shot by now if he fought in a different manner, but his chance is finally nearing and he must only defeat Silva to make this a reality. I say only as if this should be easy, but it most certainly is not as Thiago Silva is fully capable of handing him his first defeat. Lyoto Machida has handily beaten everyone he has faced and Silva represents the last hurdle; but this time it is a hurdle that the elusive Machida will not be able to leap over or run around as he is going to have to run straight through him if he wishes to come out victorious.
Having to set the table for this epic UFC 94 main event is a near impossible task on par with asking a local high school band to open for Led Zeppelin on their reunion tour. While these two men are incapable of making us forget about why we gathered for this event, they should give us reasons to cheer and make the wait for the main event rather bearable. Styles make fights ,and Thiago Silva's style could finally be the one that gets a fight out of Lyoto Machida and gets the fans to care about "The Dragon."
Lyoto Machida is a supremely talented fighter and a quiet, unassuming man, but yet one of the most polarizing MMA fighters of all. Machida is one of the most efficient and effective fighters in the game and yet he has not endeared himself to the audience, and as such it has taken him this long to even battle for the chance to get a title shot in the near future. I would like to think that all fans respect him and what he has accomplished, but it is an absolute fact that their are two camps when it comes to Machida, and one hates him while the other lives to hate that other group of people and argue with them over who appreciates the sport of MMA the best.
Those who claim that they can't stand to watch him fight and that he is a boring fighter who actually runs away from his opponents in the Octagon are quickly scolded for being neanderthals who seemingly only appreciate a stand up war such as Griffin-Bonnar I or Lytle-Davis from UFC 93. While this may be true for some of these fans, it does not represent all of them, and even the most ardent Machida fan could probably see a little bit of where these fans are coming from.
Yes, some fans merely wish to watch two men bash each other's heads in. However, you can usually pick these men out in a crowd as they are the "Biff"'s in a TapouT t-shirt with the sleeves rolled up to show off their "guns" shouting at the television in a Buffalo Wild Wings while making sure to tell everyone within hearing range that they could "kick that guy's ass." They can't, and we know this, and by the same token their opinions should not be indicative of all of those who do not find Machida's style to be palatable.
The camp which seems to spend most of their time fighting those who find Machida to be boring can also be stereotyped, and this too is entirely unfair. Some of these fans like to imagine that declaring their love for Machida makes them seem as if they are a more educated fan and have a greater knowledge of MMA than anyone else. This is similar to how someone might say that they love a certain indie band in order to make them sound more hip than someone who might declare their love for a band with an album on the top forty charts. Not all of these fans of Machida are these omniscient, elitist snobs who seem to always be spoiling for a fight with words, in much the same manner that the frat-boy looks to trade punches with someone. There are good and bad fans from both camps, and as such it should be acceptable to like or dislike Machida's "elusiveness" without getting a high five from someone with a backwards baseball cap or derision from someone who lives on a message board.
The facts about Lyoto Machida are that he is an undefeated star in the UFC light heavyweight division, and he boasts a record of 13-0 with three of these wins coming by way of KO and two by submission. Machida is a karate practitioner and has been the rare fighter to actually have this bring him success in the world of MMA, as most have long since considered karate to be one of the least effective forms of martial arts to be utilized in our sport. Machida has not only won using karate techniques but he has thrived. Some of the notable opponents whom he holds a victory over include the likes of Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou, Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin and oh, some guy named B.J. Penn. When you hold victories over both Rich Franklin and B.J. Penn you belong in your own special category, but it the manner in which he fights that has prevented Machida from becoming the star that such a record would suggest he should be.
Thiago Silva is a member of American Top Team, and that alone can tell you what kind of fighter he is as that team is made up of some of the very best fighters in this sport. Silva holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he is much like Jorge Gurgel in that he would rather stand and trade with his opponents rather than take them down and submit them. Of course the difference between he and Gurgel is that Silva is capable of being absolutely devastating on the feet, and he possesses an excellent clinch to go along with his powerful muay thai ability. His ground game is fantastic, but with such a striking game it is no wonder he enjoys standing to slug it out. Silva can stop a fight at any time, but at times can be wild, and he is going to have to look to keep Machida in front of him and not end up chasing after him all night.
Thiago Silva is also an undefeated star in the UFC light heavyweight division, and his record is also an unblemished 13-0 but ten of Silva's victories have come by way of KO with two by submission, and only 1 has gone to the judge's scorecards. Machida is content to take it the distance, and is the marathon runner to Silva's sprinter as Thiago likes to take care of business in a fast and often furious manner. Silva has not faced the level of competition that Machida has, and the two most notable names he has defeated are James Irvin and Houston Alexander, but the manner in which he has finished just about everyone can not be denied. Silva is a ferocious fighter with a more powerful build than Machida, and he is also four years younger than his opponent. While this is not Thiago's first turn in the Octagon this is the best opponent he has ever faced, as well as the stiffest challenge.
For Lyoto Machida to win this fight he is going to have to do what he always does and that is stick with what got him to the dance. Machida should look to use the entire Octagon and stick and move as he always does while remaining out of harm's way and piling up points. He is not going to be able to dictate the pace early on, but his great conditioning should put him in a position to do so for the remainder of the fight and his unorthodox stance should cause Silva some trouble as well. Machida can't afford to stand still against Silva, but I don't think he would even consider doing such a thing, and he will calmly and methodically land shots until time has expired. Silva could possibly be the one man to goad Machida into a fight, but Machida must not do so if he wishes to win this one. For Machida to win he is going to have to worry about pleasing the fans who think he is boring on another day and just get the 'W' in his usual manner.
For Thiago Silva to win this fight it is going to take following a game plan more than he ever has before, and using his head more than his power and natural ability. Machida frustrates the best of them, and Silva has to keep his head in the game and not end up chasing Machida like Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes at UFC 83. By no means would I ever suggest that Machida would pull a stunt like Starnes did, though it is possible that Silva could find himself as frustrated as Quarry did and he must avoid this if he wishes to have a chance for victory. If Silva can avoid chasing Machida and actually land some shots it could change the complexion of this fight immediately, but he must look to do some damage early and not risk having to pull off a KO in order to get the win. You can't hit what you can't catch, but trust that if Silva can connect on the elusive target that is Lyoto Machida that he could win this one in spectacular fashion.
Bent's Prediction: Thiago Silva by 2nd Round TKO
I am pulled in this one, and a part of me felt like it would be best to take the easiest way out and pick Machida by decision, but I have a premonition and that is that this fight ends up being decided not by the judges but by Silva. Machida does not present much of a target, but I have a feeling that Silva will find it and pull off the upset in convincing fashion.
This has absolutely nothing to do with favoring or disliking Machida's style. I do appreciate Machida's defensive ability in much the same way that I used to love watching Pernell "Sweet Pea" Whitaker handle his business in the boxing ring, but I am turned off by his running away at times in bouts, and I guess it frustrates me that Machida is content to never press the action. Perhaps Silva will awaken an angry "Dragon" and we could see one hell of a fight between the two, but I expect this one to be cautious and methodical and won by the power of Silva.
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