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By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief With two big events this weekend there's going to be quite a bit of action to go around for MMA fans everywhere. Between Affliction: "Day of Reckoning" and WEC 38 there are two title fights and a multitude of intriguing undercard offerings, including the rematch of one of 2008's best fights between Jens Pulver and Urijah Faber. There's a lot at stake for Affliction tomorrow night as well, and their very future may be in the hands of their main event competitors tomorrow night. WEC 38 looks to provide two action-packed hours of free MMA action the following night on Versus. And, if that's not enough, those without the means to purchase tomorrow's Affliction show have the opportunity to catch UFC 91: Lesnar vs. Couture on Spike TV for either the first time or a replay. It's a win-win for fans either way. Now for some previews and predictions!
Affliction under card on HDNet
Starting with tomorrow night's Affliction card, the undercard looks to showcase some very solid fights and fighters. To start with, the HDNet broadcast of the under card will be headlined by the bout between Vladimir Matyushenko and Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira. "Little Nog" and Matyushenko are two of the higher ranking light heavyweights not competing in the UFC, and along with Renato "Babalu" Sobral are the cream of the crop for that division for Affliction. It should be a highly exciting contest to cap off the preliminary HDNet card. Although Nogueira lost to Matyushenko when the two met years ago, he's notched quite a few high profile names onto his belt on his way to being considered a top tier light heavyweight. He'll prove to be too much for Matyushenko tomorrow night and get back that victory.
Another notable on the prelims is the fight between Jay Hieron and Jason High, a welterweight bout that was in consideration for the pay-per-view card but was ultimately left for HDNet. There's a big gap in experience in Hieron's favor coming into this contest, but the 6-0 High will definitely make a fight out of this one. Ultimately, I think Hieron picks up a tko victory late first to early second round, but either way this should be a fun fight to watch.
Affliction: Day of Reckoning pay-per-view broadcast
Now on to the main card, where it's all about the main event. There are, however, some very solid fights on tap before that. Dan Lauzon takes on Bobby Green, who is stepping in on short notice to take the place of Chris Horodecki on the card. Lauzon's a very good young fighter, who at 20 years of age already has twelve professional fights under his belt with only two losses. Green's coming into this fight as a last second replacement and I don't see him pulling a Jim Miller in this one. Lauzon gets it with a first round tko.
Next up is Paul Buentello taking on "Baby Fedor" Kirill Sidelnikov. If this thing ends in the first round expect it to be due to "Baby Fedor" picking up the win. Sidelnikov's five victories have all come in the first round, although his two losses came once it got past that point. Buentello's fought just about everywhere and will be looking pick up consecutive wins following his '07 loss to Alistair Overeem. In the end, however, "Baby Fedor" could prove too much for the veritable journeyman. Sidelnikov via tko in the first.
We get to the meat of the pay-per-view broadcast with Renato "Babalu" Sobral taking on Ramieau Thierry Sokoudjou. In a battle of a UFC outcast and one of that promotion's most recent releases, this fight doesn't give out much in terms of ramifications. Sokoudjou was a bust in the UFC, and although he has definitely shown signs of the powerful fighter that he was in PRIDE, he was not able to sustain that enough to translate into wins. He looked very good in the first round of his last fight against Luis Cane before gassing and getting tko'd in the second round. He's taking on the current Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Sobral, who is on a four fight win streak dating back to his final Octagon appearance. He was booted from the organization after refusing to release a chokehold on David Heath at UFC 74 in August of '07, and he most recently won the Strikeforce Title by a doctor's stoppage from a cut he opened up on Bobby Southworth in their bout. Sokoudjou has not shown that he can hang with the top tier fighters since moving to the UFC, and I don't expect him to be able to do so against Babalu here. He may get in some early flurries, but Sobral has seen a lot over his decade long career, and he'll submit Sokoudjou in the second round.
Matt Lindland takes on Vitor Belfort in a middleweight bout in what should be a very good fight. Lindland's only lost twice since 2004, to Quinton Jackson via split decision and an armbar loss to Fedor. Looking a little worse for wear after a long layoff, he defeated Fabio Negao at the Affliction: Banned event in July. Belfort is also coming off a win at the July Banned event, and this match-up could go many ways. It'll either be a tko from Belfort or a submission from Lindland, unless it goes to the judges in which case it's a toss up. Both are very good fighters with years of experience who have both faced top competition. This should be an absolute battle but I can see Lindland picking up a mid to late third round submission for the victory.
The pseudo co-main event between Josh Barnett and Gilbert Yvel is an interesting one. On the one hand, Yvel's a powerful striking heavyweight who could conceivably do some damage against Barnett, but he hasn't faced anyone of real merit in a long time. Barnett, on the other hand, is a consensus top five heavyweight, a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, and should Affliction see the day of a third show will most likely be facing the WAMMA Heavyweight Champion for that belt. I don't see any way Yvel stops Barnett in this fight, and that's the only way he'll pull it out. Barnett's too good and too much for Yvel, and he'll put him away with a second round tko.
As for our main event of the evening, what more can be said about Fedor? The man, the myth, the legend, he's the one fighter who is seemingly unbeatable. But he's coming up against his toughest challenge in over two years. The last time Fedor was truly challenged was in a unanimous decision victory over a prime Mirko Cro Cop in PRIDE in August of 2005. It's true that the last man he fought defeated his next opponent twice, but the Andrei Arlovski that dropped two bouts to Tim Sylvia in the UFC is not the Arlovski that's coming to fight tomorrow. Arlovski had a difficult stretch of lackluster fights in the UFC, but he rebounded in his last fight in the Octagon when he handed Jake O'Brien the first loss of his career. Then, in July at the Affliction: Banned event, Arlovski returned to the form that made him a dominant Champion at one time in the UFC. He destroyed Ben Rothwell through just over three rounds, and then took a fight with Roy Nelson in October on the final EliteXC show. He took that one by tko in the second. Now, both he and Fedor have an epic fight on their hands, and one that will be a treat for those that do decide to pick up the pay-per-view. Andrei Arlovski will prove to be a very challenging opponent for Fedor, but I don't think you can ever really vote against The Last Emperor. He's not shown a reason why he should lose yet, and he's a master of finding ways to win and in delivering punishment. He's also a far superior ground fighter, and can pull out a submission on Arlovski a lot easier than Arlovski can knock him out. Barring some insanely precise striking from Andrei in the first two rounds, I'll take Fedor with a submission in the third.
What happens for Affliction after this event will all depend on the outcome of that main event. The problem they'll run into is if Andrei wins. They've set Fedor up as the absolutely unbeatable top heavyweight, which he is, but considering both of their pay-per-views have had Fedor as pretty much the only true selling point, and all the attention has been on him, they're in a tough spot if he's defeated. It's the Kimbo Slice/EliteXC situation except with someone who can actually fight. The hype has been such that Fedor is the only non-former UFC face that Affliction has going for it at all, and a loss not only puts a major dent in any plans for a third show, it hurts what could be some giant money-making fights involving Fedor down the road. The one major thing that would add to the downfall of Affliction is the talk that should Andrei win, he's looking at over a million dollars for this fight for a payday. For the man and the fighter, more power to him, but an Arlovski victory means another large payroll related dent to Affliction as well as the destruction of the "Unbeatable Fedor" persona they've tried so hard to build. It'll be up to Fedor to keep the company afloat tomorrow night.
WEC 38: Varner vs. Cerrone - Pulver vs. Faber
Following the in-ring spectacle that will be Affliction: Day of Reckoning, it's back to the cage on Sunday night with a great two hours of WEC action on Versus. The WEC 38 card has two highly anticipated bouts at the top of the card, and we'll get to see another fast rising star in action as well.
Jose Aldo has been a professional fighter since he was 18, and now at 22 is one of the top featherweights in the world. He's facing a much less experienced Rolando Perez, who is taking the fight on just a few week's notice. Aldo's going to dominate and once again show why he's one of the top up and coming fighters at 145 lbs. Aldo takes it by first round tko.
In a rematch of one of the best fights of 2008, Jens Pulver and Urijah Faber meet in a rematch on Sunday night. This rematch is slightly tainted, however, as both fighters are coming off of losses, and as such the bout has no title on the line and is a three round affair. That being said, these two will surely give it their all and provide another highly exciting contest. Faber's going to be hungrier and more careful in this fight after losing his Featherweight Title to Mike Brown at WEC 36. Unfortunately for Pulver, that means he'll have to make it five out of six fights that he's lost, and he'll need to consider how much he's got left in the tank. The time may be drawing to a close for "Lil Evil," and Faber could be the one sending him home. I think Faber does what he couldn't do in their first encounter, and that's stop Pulver. The "California Kid" picks up a tko in the third round.
And the final main event of the weekend is a WEC Lightweight Title clash between Champ Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone. Cerrone comes into this bout undefeated after his most recent victory, an excellent battle with former Lightweight Champ Rob McCullough, and he'll be looking to continue with an unblemished record against Varner. Varner defeated McCullough for the Lightweight Title last year, and this will be just his second Title defense. Despite the decided reach advantage brought into this fight by Cerrone, Varner's a superior fighter in both his stand up and ground games. The only loss Varner's suffered in the last five and a half years was in his UFC debut to Hermes Franca, and he's got four straight wins since that bout. Varner will be able to outstrike and outwork Cerrone in this fight, but it won't be over quickly. Cerrone's good enough to make this one an all out war, but he'll fall to a tko in the fourth round.
So that's what's on tap this weekend in the world of MMA. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for live on-going coverage of the Affliction: "Day of Reckoning" pay-per-view, as well as on Sunday for live coverage of WEC 38, and be sure to stick around for staff reviews, audios and more as we recap everything that happens this weekend and look ahead to next Saturday's gigantic UFC 94 event!
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
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