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By: Tom Suter, MMATorch Contributor Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira
Though Paul Buentello vs "Baby Fedor" starts the PPV portion of the show, the light heavyweight rematch between Vladimir Matyushenko and Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" (which I think is translated as "The One that is Not 'Minotauro'") Nogueira is the more significant bout. Vladimir comes from a strong wrestling background, and has incorporated strong striking and submission skills into his fight plan. Vladimir is thus a strong all-arounder, with no glaring weaknesses and the ability to effectively control the fight. Nogueira is similarly diverse in terms of abilities, having victories by both KO and submission. Perhaps most noticeable is the number of victories Nogueira has by decision (7 of 15), meaning that he isn't afraid to go the distance.
I see this fight being a very close, though perhaps not incredibly exciting, battle of attrition. The fighters are relatively evenly matched in both stand-up and on the ground. While Nogueira has perhaps a slight advantage on his feet and moderately more clear advantage in submissions, Matyushenko has the advantage in terms of wrestling and ground control, allowing him to set the pace of the match. Like their first fight, I see this one going the distance, ending with a split decision in favor of Matyushenko (but easily going either way). And, sadly, I can see this match having all the excitement of the high school wrestling matches that only dads and girlfriends go to watch.
Matt Lindland vs. Vitor Belfort
In the only Middleweight bout of the evening, the Olympic wrestler Matt Lindland goes up against Vitor Belfort, the fast-handed Brazilian striker.
Lindland, true to his training, brings to the table world class wrestling, the work-horse style of boxing that is often seen in fighters that come from a strong wrestling background, and surprisingly dangerous submissions that have ended 8 fights early.
Belfort is primarily a striker (did I mention fast hands), who's fast hands have been his primary means to having 11 of his 17 victories coming from KO. While no slouch as far as his ground skills go, Belfort has run into trouble in the past against high quality ground combatants, meaning that Belfort will have his fast hands full with Lindland.
This fight will be a good match, with Belfort tending to have the upper hand at the start of each round, while Lindland will start to take control of the later parts of each round by bringing the fight to the ground and tiring out Belfort by maintaining dominant position with his wrestling skills. I see things going back and forth, with Lindland eventually wearing out Belfort with his superior ground skills. I see this fight ending in a unanimous decision for Lindland, though the fight could easily end early with either fighter knocking out or submitting the other. However, on a side note, I can only hope that Lindland manages a self-KO that is somehow even more spectacular than in his first 2003 Vitale fight.
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Ramieau Thierry Sokoudjou
In the main Light Heavyweight bout of the evening, the experienced wrestler and submission artist Renato Sobral comes up against Rameau Sokoudjou, the young judoka and kickboxer from Cameroon.
Sobral brings to the table an excellent set of submission skills, having over half of his 31 wins coming from submission. However, the holes in Sobral's game comes in the stand-up area, as Sobral's two most recent loses, back to back in 2006 and 2007 from Chuck Lidell and Jason Lambert, respectively, were due to striking KOs.
Conversely, Sokoudjou's striking skills are rather impressive, though his ground game (despite his judo background) has been shown to be subpar. Furthermore, the fact that Sokoudjou has only had 8 professional bouts, and only 1 of them (his first) went to a decision, means that if things don't end quickly, Sokoudjou will have his hands full with the experienced Sobral that has gone the distance and won more times than Sokoudjou has even fought.
As with any ground vs. stand-up match, Sobral will need to be careful with the stand-up and try to bring Sokoudjou to the ground, whereas Sokoudjou will need to control the pace of the fight with his striking and be careful not to give Sobral any opportunities for a takedown. Additionally, Sobral needs to be careful and not lose his head if Sokoudjou gets a few good strikes in, but instead regain his composure, keep to his game plan, and make smart and calculated takedown attempts. Given this, I am putting Sobral as a strong favorite for a victory by submission late in the first round.
Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel
In the non-championship heavyweight bout of the evening, ex-UFC heavyweight champion Josh Barnett fights the dark-horse, "who really knows?" striking of Gilbert Yvel.
Every time I watch Barnett, he *looks* out of shape, slow, and doesn't seem particularly graceful or proficient in either striking, wrestling, or submissions. However, Barnett has managed to put together an impressive string of victories that have showcased impressive abilities both standing up and on the ground, with his submission skills being particularly noteworthy.
Yvel brings to the table a relatively more one-sided striking-based game plan, which also involves a set of MMA "Hail Mary's" such as the famed flying knee. However, Yvel's sub-standard ground game leaves much to be desired, and could be especially disastrous against the especially proficient Barnett.
I see Yvel opening fast and furious against Barnett, with what will likely be an impressive, exciting, and diverse array of strikes. Yvel has a lot of KO power, which could quickly turn the tide of the fight and end Barnett's evening early at any point in the match. However, I see Barnett, with his greater size as well as his own competent set of striking skills, allowing him to calm things down and eventually bring the fight to the ground. At this point, the fight will end rather quickly, with Barnett likely submitting Yvel either late in the first period or midway through the second. I give this fight to Barnett, but Yvel's striking could quickly turn the tide and end the fight for Barnett.
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski (WAMMA Heavyweight Title Bout)
In the heavyweight main event of Affliction: Day of Reckoning, the all around dominant Fedor Emelianenko, the ex-PRIDE heavy weight champion, reigning WAMMA champion and one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time, goes up against a powerful striker in Andrei Arlovski, a former UFC heavyweight champion. While the match is the WAMMA heavyweight championship bout, it is most exciting in that it marks some of the first real competition given to Fedor since the disbanding of the PRIDE Fighting Championship that Fedor dominated for the majority of this millennium.
As far as match-ups go, Fedor has shown himself to be highly skilled in every aspect of MMA, having dominated opponents with strikes, grappling, as well as submissions. The main question being asked of Fedor's abilities is whether they might have eroded somewhat in the years since PRIDE's disbandment. In this time, Fedor has had only three fights, with one bout against a significantly smaller Lindland, a freak-show fight against the kick-boxing only 7ft 2in Hong-man Choi, and, most recently, a half-minute fight against a noticeably tired Tim Sylvia. Again, no major flaws, but I've looked pretty dominant myself against most of the pre-schoolers I've fought.
Fedor is up against an Arlovski on somewhat of a comeback, including a string of five straight wins (with 4 ending early from strikes). Arlovski is definitely a dangerous opponent, and while competent on the ground, Arlovski's exceptional striking ability is the main threat here. However, there's always a degree of uncertainty surrounding what type of Arlovski is going to appear in the fight: is it the amazingly conditioned, aggressive, and dominantly striking Arlovski who has ended 14 of his 15 victory's before the final bell; or will it be the sluggish Arlovski that lost twice to Tim Sylvia in 2006 and underperformed in an equally underwhelming decision over Fabricio Werdum in 2007?
For Arlovski to stand a chance, he's going to need Fedor to be somewhat out of the peak form that won Fedor 29 straight victories (minus one questionable no contest/loss due to a cut from an illegal blow). Additionally, Arlovski is going to need to be in peak physical shape. Given these two conditions, Arlovski is going to want to keep things standing up given Fedor's superior ground game. Arlovski can and probably will try to manage doing this through the range and precision of his striking game. Keeping this game plan will be quite difficult, as Fedor is by no means a slouch on his feet, and Arlovski keeping Fedor standing up for an entire 25 minutes is unlikely. Once the fight, in my mind inevitably, goes to the ground, Fedor is likely to maintain a dominant position over Arlovski. While I don't see Arlovski tapping out to punches in a ground and pound, I'm guessing a fatigued and battered Arlovski will give up a submission to Fedor halfway through the second period.
The newest member to the MMATorch contributing team, Tom Suter is a graduate student at UCSD and a longtime MMA enthusiast.
[Fedor Art Credit - Corey Gould (c) MMATorch.com]
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