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By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist Oh UFC 93. You are the red-headed step child sandwiched between the mega-events that are/were 91, 92, and 94. But that's ok. These are the kind of cards that end up surprising, and to be honest, I think it looks pretty good on paper. Not every show can have GSP-Penn on it. So let's make some picks, shall we?
ERIC SCHAFER VS. ANTONIO MENDES
Speaking of red-headed step children...nevermind. Schafer is quickly becoming one of my guilty pleasures after dispatching (once and for all?) Houston Alexander even after taking about seventeen illegal knees. He's tough, and he actually has one of the better ground games in the division. Mendes is no pushover though. He gave Thiago Silva everything he could handle before being defeated at UFC 84. He'll put up a good fight again, and I expect this to be the highlight of the undercard, but Schafer will continue the roll he's on.
Prediction: Schafer by submission in round 2
NATE MOHR VS. DENIS SIVER
I'm honestly not sure how either of these guys are fighting on this card. Siver is 1-3 in the UFC, Mohr is 1-2, and Mohr hasn't fought in over a year. Siver likes to both win and lose by submission, but, boy, does Mohr like to lose by submission. Mohr is fantastic on his feet, but if this hits the ground it's over. And not because Siver is just that good on the ground, but because Mohr is just that bad. Siver is also very capable of having his lights turned out with one punch. Hmmm...coin flip fight. Coin says Siver gets it to the ground.
Prediction: Siver by submission in round 1
TOM EGAN VS. JOHN HATHAWAY
Two debuting fighters and somebody's "O" must go. Egan comes in with a scant three fights to his name, all victories in the minor minor leagues. Hathaway has three times the experience and has faced tougher competition as a Cage Rage veteran. It appears he's your typical English slugger so this one should be entertaining while it lasts.
Prediction: Hathaway by TKO in round 1
IVAN SERATI VS. THOMASZ DRWAL
Alas, we Italians finally have a fighter to get behind. Serati makes his Octagon debut against Drwal, who hasn't fought since his own debut well over a year ago against Thiago Silva. This should be another slugfest (a common theme on the UK shows), and this would usually be a case of me taking the fighter who is past the first fight jitters. Not so fast. I gotta take the Italian.
Prediction: Serati by TKO in round 2
MARTIN KAMPMANN VS. ALEXANDRE BARROS
I'm a little disappointed Kampmann's welterweight debut isn't being treated with more fanfare. I think he'll be a force in the division and his first fight should've been on the main card against someone more established. Perhaps he'll make a quick statement and we'll get to see it anyway. Barros makes his debut (another running theme) here, and his resume is revealing. He's lost five times in eighteen professional fights, but he's only been finished once and that was in his debut all the way back in 1999. Barros has fought Matt Hughes, Dave Strasser, and Aaron Riley over the years so he's not unfamiliar with tough competition. I still think Kampmann will be the better fighter Saturday night, but they can't all have early finishes.
Prediction: Kampmann by decision
MARCUS DAVIS VS. CHRIS LYTLE
Our first fight on the main card is a guaranteed slugfest and my pick for fight of the night. I'm guessing they have a gentleman's agreement to keep it on the feet just like Lytle and Paul Taylor did, which is a shame because this could turn into a classic if both men show all their skills. I'll give the power and technique advantage to Davis, but I think Lytle has a slightly better chin. I'm a big Marcus Davis fan, but I'm calling the upset here. I think Lytle keeps swinging until he drops Davis, and then he'll pounce and not let up until the ref steps in.
Prediction: Lytle by TKO in round 2
ROUSIMER PALHARES VS. JEREMY HORN
This would be a tempting upset pick if Horn was still the fighter who took a four round beating from a "still in his prime" Chuck Liddell a few years back, but unfortunately he's the guy who's been submitted his last two times out to Nate Marquardt and Dean Lister. Palhares is just as good, if not better, than both of those fighters on the ground. This should be a showcase for Palhares, and he'll make short work of Horn, a shell of his former self.
Prediction: Palhares by submission in round 2
DENIS KANG VS. ALAN BELCHER
One of the best middleweights to never fight in the Octagon, Kang makes his debut against the kickboxer Belcher. Belcher is very good on his feet, but Kang is better, and if this fight hits the ground its over. Oh, and it'll hit the ground. Expect Kang to take a couple minutes to get his bearings and work on his timing, but eventually he'll eat a shot from Belcher that will tell him its time to stop messing around. This should be a successful debut for Kang, and a first step towards putting his name in the very crowded hat of middleweight title contenders. Either that, or he'll fall victim to the Pride curse. Nah.
Prediction: Kang by TKO in round 1
MAURICIO "SHOGUN" RUA VS. MARK COLEMAN
I'm honestly not sure why we're seeing this fight. I know Shogun can avenge a "loss", but what does he really have to gain by winning? Better yet, what if he loses? Does anyone really see Coleman sticking around and being a contender in the loaded light-heavyweight division? Yeah, me neither. Luckily I don't think we'll have to cross that bridge. Despite his lackluster debut, Shogun really is one of the top 205'ers in the world, and he should make short work of Coleman here. The Hammer's only chance is to charge forward from the bell, get the takedown, and unleash some hellish ground in pound and hope its stopped before he gasses in two minutes. It won't happen. He'll charge in, get caught with a knee, and eat punches until its over. This should be the shortest fight of the night.
Prediction: Rua by TKO in round 1
RICH FRANKLIN VS. DAN HENDERSON
This is a really interesting fight, even if the only thing on the line is a spot opposite Michael Bisping on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter. Despite this being contested at 205, these are still possibly the second and third best middleweights in the world. After Saturday, we'll who owns which spot. Franklin is the better technical striker, and has the better submissions, but Hendo is the far better wrestler, has better power, and Franklin isn't good enough on the ground to submit him. I expect this one to go to a decision, and Hendo's wrestling should be the difference. It'll be even when it's on the feet but three or four times in the fight Franklin will find himself on his back eating punches, and he won't be able to finish Hendo even if he can get off the mat.
Prediction: Henderson by decision
Fake money:
$300 on Schafer
$300 on Lytle
$200 on Serati
$200 on Barros
Well there it is. The night in a nutshell. Remember to get your picks in by the noon deadline, and as always, good luck!
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