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By: Eric Hobaugh, MMATorch Contributor
Recently, Fabrico Werdum beat Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC on Fuel TV 10. Many had Werdum close to a title shot before that victory, and it seems like a title fight could be next. The official UFC rankings have him number three behind JDS and Daniel Cormier, and he is ahead of Cormier on my official rankings. It makes more sense to give him the next title shot after JDS and Cain Velasquez fight.
Does he possess the skills to become a UFC Champion? He absolutely does. Will he? Only time will tell if he actually gets the title shot, but winning may only be a dream for the highly talented Brazilian ground specialist.
Since joining the Zuffa fold back at UFC 70 in 2007, he is a totally new fighter. He started his run with a boring decision loss to Andrei Arlovski, and along the way has gone 8-3. Notable wins during the run include Antonio Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, Roy Nelson, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. In 2007, he was a decent size heavyweight with an excellent ground game and not much standing. The fight with Andrei Arlovski was an embarrassment. Not only was it boring, but several times he was on his back waving Arlovski to join him on the ground.
2008 would see him pick up KO wins against Gabriel Gonzaga and Brandon Vera. It was during this time that his striking took a huge step forward and he became a complete mixed martial artist. He also fought and lost to JDS in 2008 by way of KO.
He was the first modern fighter to beat Fedor Emelianenko (the last loss on Fedor's record was in 2000 to Tsuyoshi Kohsaka due to a cut), submitting him in 2010 at Strikeforce "Fedor vs. Werdum." Fedor was considered by many fans at the time as the number one heavyweight in the world. He was past his prime and in my mind was over rated and had not fought anyone since Mark Coleman at Pride 32 back in 2006. However, it is widely considered the fight that put Werdum back on the map, and since then, he has been a legitimate top ten fighter.
Werdum has the experience and skills to win the UFC Title, but there are two things in his way of doing that: Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez. Those are two huge tasks, whichever one he draws.
His best shot at the title is if JDS can defeat Velasquez. He matches up better with his fellow Brazilian and it is a fight he can win. If he can use his improved wrestling to get Dos Santos on the ground, he can win. JDS can be taken down, but he is extremely tough to keep there. This would be a rematch of their 2008 fight, in which Werdum lost via KO. If he wants a different outcome, he will need to do a better job of staying away from the excellent stand up of JDS.
If history has taught us anything, it is that anyone can be beaten on any given day in MMA. Still, the odds of Werdum beating Cain Velasquez are slim at best. Cain's wrestling, cardio, and standup are on a level Werdum just hasn't seen. Velasquez is better in every aspect of MMA except BJJ and if he has any chance to beat Velasquez, he will need to catch him on the ground. Cain will undoubtedly get the fight to the ground and it will be up to Werdum to take advantage of his superior BJJ from his back if he has any chance for UFC gold.
For Werdum, this might be his last chance for a UFC Title. He is 35 and he may very well be nearing the end of his fighting career. If he does earn a title shot, it will be well deserved. Can he win? He 100% can. Will he win? More than likely, he will not. Whether or not it is against JDS or Velasquez, his chances of being a champion are very low.
Please send love, fan, and hate letters to me at erichobaugh@gmail.com
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