Nov 12, 2008 - 5:55:56 PM by Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist
On Saturday night, we will see what has been hailed by UFC President Dana White as the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history. It will pit the UFC Heavyweight Champion and perhaps the most universally loved fighter in the sport against a guy with three professional MMA fights. On the surface, and perhaps to someone who doesn’t know the details, it looks like a cakewalk for the champ. If you're looking at records and nothing else, you're probably wondering why the champ himself is such a big deal. He's only 16-8. And isn't he a bit old to still be fighting? And what about the new guy? He's a little old to be getting into a new sport, isn't he? Well, it's not quite so simple. Randy Couture and Brock Lesnar aren't your typical main event fighters, and this isn't your typical "biggest fight in the history of the sport."
I'm not going to beat around the bush here. I'm a Randy Couture fan. I like his style of fighting, I think he's a brilliant strategist, he's a great ambassador for MMA, and he's easy to root for. So yeah, I like watching Couture, and it's been a crime against the sport to have him out of action for as long as it's been since he fought Gonzaga. That having been said, I'm as big a Lesnar apologist as you'll find. I think he's got a chance to be the best fighter around. Despite getting into MMA a little late in life, he's got all the tools to succeed. So who wins? The veteran or the new guy? The old champ, or the next big thing? I believe it's time for a breakdown.
Brock Lesnar made his mixed martial arts debut in June of last year when he forced Min Soo Kim to submit due to strikes in the laughable K-1 Dynamite!! USA card in California. But that show could have yielded the smallest number of people who ever saw Lesnar perform in a televised or PPV event. Lesnar was a known commodity long before 2007 as a professional wrestler in WWF/WWE from 2002-2004. But his credentials as a fighter go back to his college years, where Lesnar was a two-time All-American, a runner-up to the NCAA champion, and the champion himself a year later. Lesnar is, by any standard, a monster. He stands six feet three inches tall and will probably weigh in at around 280 pounds of solid muscle come fight time. But size isn't Lesnar's only tool. He's as quick as a light heavyweight with the strength of a bear to go along with his wrestling prowess.
On the other side, we don't know much about striking. We haven't seen him take many punches, and we haven't seen much of his standup. But what we have seen gives no reason to doubt that he can be solid. He hit Heath Herring with a straight right hand that made Herring do a backward somersault. Min Soo Kim submitted after getting hit with a few hammerfists. And as for taking a punch, it stands to reason that a guy with Lesnar's size and neck muscles can take a shot or two. Of course, you never know until he takes those shots on the chin.
If Lesnar is going to win the fight, he needs to control the positioning. He may well have some good striking, but he's probably not going to knock Couture out on the feet. He's too green to go for a finish against a veteran like Couture without getting caught, so he'll have to grind out a decision. The good news for Lesnar is that he's probably got the conditioning to go the full five rounds with Couture.
As for Randy Couture, there is perhaps no champion in the history of the UFC as revered as "The Natural." Couture, like Lesnar, also has an extensive amateur wrestling background, as he was himself a two-time All American and a national title runner-up. He was also a three-time Olympic alternate in Greco Roman wrestling. Couture is a mauler inside the Octagon. He can grab the occasional submission (usually a choke) and can even hold his own against a pure grappler, but that's not necessarily his style. He wants to beat you up. Inside the clinch and in top position, Couture is lethal. Like a snake, he slowly gets his unwitting opponent into a position he likes, then he pounces and unleashes punishment in often fight-ending fashion. If your cardio is suspect, don't even bother getting in there with the champ. He will wear an opponent down and take them out little by little. Couture's gameplanning is also second to none. He can inflict his style on an opponent, but the most dangerous thing about him is the way he turns his rivals' strengths into weaknesses. He did it with Chuck Liddell (the first time), and he did it as recently as the Gabriel Gonzaga fight. Couture goes into each fight knowing exactly what he needs to do and how he's going to do it.
The champion is going into this fight with a lot of disadvantages. He's shorter than Lesnar, he's smaller, he's older, slower, and not as strong as his opponent. But he's also got more experience. He's been in countless main events and title fights. This won't be his first time under the spotlight. Of course, the same can be said for Lesnar (at least about the spotlight.) You'll hear a lot about how, in order to win, Randy Couture needs to drag Brock Lesnar "into deep water." I've stayed away from other preview articles before writing this one, but I can almost guarantee that this very phrase has been used many times. The problem is that Lesnar can hang for five rounds. He's not going to wear out, at least physically. Couture holds virtually no physical advantage over Lesnar, and for once his conditioning could be matched as a heavyweight.
I think Randy Couture is going to win.
The thing is, I have no earthly idea how he's going to do it. And therein may lie his greatest advantage. Couture has weaknesses to be sure, but none that Lesnar can easily exploit. And that's an advantage for the champion. As mentioned before, Couture is the best in the business when it comes to making a gameplan. And Lesnar won't have any idea what approach Couture is going to take. So I may not know how he's going to win, but that's hardly a reason to bet against him. We all know that Randy Couture defies the odds. And until he stops doing that, I have no reason to doubt him. I'm taking Couture by fifth round TKO in a title fight for the ages. It's impossible to live up to the hype of "biggest fight ever", but I expect this one to come pretty darn close.
