Nov 11, 2008 - 10:38:09 PM By Frank Hyden, MMATorch contributor
UFC 91 Predictions
Quick Picks:
Matt Brown vs. Ryan Thomas- Thomas by Decision
Alvin Robinson vs. Mark Bocek- Robinson by Armbar in the 2nd round
Jeremy Stephens vs. Rafael dos Anjos- Stephens by TKO in the 2nd round
Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley- Riley by TKO in the 2nd round
Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory- Hazelett by Rear-Naked Choke in the 1st round
Televised Fights:
Nate Quarry vs. Demian Maia- This is a classic striker versus submission artist match-up. Usually the submission guy gets the edge but I got to believe that Quarry will be able to fend off Maia and keep him at bay long enough to land a shot that will lead to the end of the fight.
Prediction- Quarry by TKO in the 2nd round
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks- I don't really know much about Hendricks so I'm basing a lot of this prediction off of Gonzaga. Gabriel's got some good submissions but his chin is a little suspect. Gonzaga has a good enough chin to prevent some knockouts but he can be caught if he's not careful. I don't think Hendricks has fought the level of competition that Gonzaga has and that'll be the difference.
Prediction- Gonzaga by Armbar in the 3rd round
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson- Joe will be a tough test for Kenny but I think that Florian will win. I know Stevenson has a lot more experience but Florian is on a mission. This fight should actually be for the Lightweight title. Kenny Florian deserves a title shot. He's been in line for a while now but because BJ Penn kept whining about wanting to fight Georges St. Pierre he's been screwed.
Instead of sitting on the sidelines and waiting for BJ to get the crap kicked out of him by GSP; Florian will step into the octagon against a very tough opponent. Joe Stevenson is no tomato can so Florian is in for a battle. Stevenson has some fantastic ground skills while Florian has the advantage striking and his elbows are the best in MMA. Both guys have fairly well-rounded games, though, so this will be an awesome fight. I think this will be the best fight of the night. If Florian can stuff any takedown attempts by Stevenson he'll win easily. Easier said than done, however, as Stevenson has great takedowns and a good sense of leverage. That's where Joe's body size helps him. Florian has the reach, though, and if he can use that to his advantage he'll emerge victorious. Florian has great ground skills of his own. This fight should be a close one if they go to the ground. Kenny will probably look to stand and strike, where he has the clear advantage.
Prediction- Florian by Decision
Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar- I want to make it perfectly clear that I have nothing but respect for Randy Couture. I admire what he's managed to do. He's turned back the clock and has turned in some masterful performances. I loved watching him come back and beat Tim Sylvia. And defeating Gabriel Gonzaga was incredible. As much as I want the feel-good story to continue, it ends here. Brock Lesnar is going to destroy Randy Couture. My heart is telling me I'm wrong but I have to go with my brain and logic. EVERYTHING is against Randy in this fight. The only thing in Randy's favor is the experience factor. Brock isn't just a little bigger, he's much bigger. Brock will have at least 60 pounds on Randy at fight time. Brock is much stronger than Randy. He's also quicker than Randy. Brock has amazing speed for a man his size. When it comes to wrestling ability it can be debated that Couture was better. However, at this time, there's little question that Brock is better. And then there's the age difference. Randy is 45 years old. I don't think he can turn back the clock far enough to overcome his disadvantages in this match.
This fight is a physical mismatch. Anyone who believes Randy can win are basing that on his experience edge. No doubt that he'll try to outwit the relative rookie Lesnar. If Randy can weather the initial flurry that Lesnar will throw at him he might be able to do it. A lot of that depends on how much cardio training Brock has done. If Randy can utilize good head movement and avoid any power punches he's got a chance of tiring out the much larger Lesnar. He also needs to focus on changing levels effectively in an attempt to keep Brock off-balance. Brock also employs a wide stance so Randy could use inside leg kicks to slow him down. Brock shouldn't have much trouble taking Randy to the ground. When that happens it's imperative that Randy use his experience and try to slip out as soon as possible. If Brock is able to land some big shots on the ground the fight will be over quicker than I think.
I'm rooting for Randy in this fight. I want to see him do this and show that skill can overcome size. There's a large part of me that wants to be proven wrong. I want to watch Randy take Brock to places he's never been before and get the decision victory. But I'm afraid that there's too much working against him. If Randy pulls this off, it'll go down in history as this generation's Douglas/Tyson or Ali/Foreman. Some may see that as exaggeration but looking at the fight objectively tells you that Randy is a huge underdog. Lesnar isn't considered in the same league as Mike Tyson and George Foreman at the time of those fights but there's parallels to be made. Lesnar is vastly superior in terms of physical ability. Also, logic tells you that Brock is the better wrestler at this time, in much the same way that Tyson and Foreman were stronger punchers. No one expected Douglas or Ali to last very long during those fights but they not only lasted, they won. The difference here is the ages of the fighters. Ali was only 32 when he fought Foreman and Douglas was only 29 when he beat Tyson. I may be repeating the same mistakes made by prognosticators from the past, but I just can't see a 45 year-old Randy Couture being able to overcome in this fight.
Prediction- Lesnar by TKO in the 1st round
