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By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist Well its almost here folks; the moment we've been waiting for since the fight was first announced. Brock vs. Randy. Lesnar vs. Couture. The Natural vs. The Next Big thing. Captain America vs. Bring the Pain. Ok, that's enough. It's being billed as the biggest fight in UFC history, and our friends at Zuffa are sure hoping the numbers will support that claim.
Its not all about the main event though. The undercard is a bit light, at least compared to some of the recent big shows, but the main card looks chalked full of action, intrigue, and...a couple of showcase fights? Hey, you can't win 'em all. The heavyweight title tilt will garner all the attention, but don't be surprised if Florian-Stevenson or Maia-Quarry steal the show. So let's break down some fights, shall we?
Ryan Thomas vs. Matt Brown
Matt Brown has been a disappointment to me ever since he was hailed as some kind of an animal in the cage before his first fight on The Ultimate Fighter. I'm just itching to pick against him here, but I just can't do it. In his only UFC fight, Ryan Thomas was arm-barred by Ben Saunders. Not a good way to earn my confidence. Brown will push the pace and it'll be too much for Thomas. Moving on...
Prediction: Brown by TKO in round 1
Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley
Has anyone had a more disappointing UFC career than Gurgel. He has the platform of TUF, the notoriety of being Rich Franklin's jiu-jitsu coach, and one of the better submission games in his division. So what does he do? Insists on slugging it out of the feet every fight. The low point had to be getting triangled by Cole effing Miller. Aaron Riley is the journeyman to end all journeymen. He's been around seemingly forever, and this will be the third time he's been brought into the UFC for a one fight dealy. He's fought top competition all over the world, but has yet to knock off a top name. Gurgel would be the best win of his career, but I don't see him getting it. I'm going the risky route of picking Gurgel to actually fight a smart fight. Fingers crossed.
Prediction: Gurgel by decision
Tamden McCrory vs. Dustin Hazelett
This one should be fun. Both are long, lanky fighters who are among the "next wave" of young welterweights. Hazelett has a little more hype behind him, but don't sleep on McCrory. Anyone who can best Luke Cummo in a battle of the nerds is a force to be reckoned with. Both are scrappy on the feet and ground, but Hazelett's submissions should be the difference. Look for this one to go awhile, with Hazelett either pulling out the submission in the third or using positioning to eke out a decision. I'll take the former.
Prediction: Hazelett by submission in round 3
Mark Bocek vs. Alvin Robinson
Bocek showed me in his fight with Mac Danzig that he also has some scrap in him to go with his world-class ground game. He's also lucky that he won't be facing the vast wrestling disadvantage against Robinson that he did in his losses to Danzig and Frankie Edgar. Robinson has been a bit of a paper tiger to me thus far in his UFC career. He has a decent record, and looks the part, but when push comes to shove, he gets pushed and shoved a little too much. Nate Diaz is good on the ground, but Bocek he's not. All Bocek needs to do is get this to the ground, and from there its only a matter of time.
Prediction: Bocek by submission in round 1
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Jeremy Stephens
Dos Anjos makes his UFC debut on a nine fight winning streak, but this will be a big step up in competition. Stephens isn't exactly an A-level fighter, but his pace is the last thing you want to deal with in the first couple minutes in the Octagon. His fight with Din Thomas was one of my favorite fights of 2007. Sure, he was outclassed on the ground, but he went down swinging. Dos Anjos prefers to win by submission, but I see him being overwhelmed by both the pressure of his debut and the relentless pace Stephens will keep up.
Prediction: Stephens by TKO in round 1
Josh Hendricks vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Sometimes its fun to try to read between the lines. This fight has clunker written all over it, and its clearly a showcase fight for Gonzaga. Looks like the UFC still has plans for Gonzaga in the always thin heavyweight division after all, no? This is Hendricks' big show debut, and he's lost to the only three opponents he's fought that I've heard of. Those men? Travis Wiuff, Tom Murphy, and Sam Hoger. That's not exactly a who's who people. Gonzaga should blow through him, but by now we should know that "blowing through" people isn't on Gonzaga's agenda unless Cro Cop is standing across the cage from him. This is your bathroom break fight. Skip the first ten minutes of crap, but be back in time for the third round superman punch that will make you think what you just watched was passable action.
Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO in round 3
Nate Quarry vs. Damian Maia
Now this is what I'm talking about. This is your fight of the night right here. Maia is a world champion grappler, and Quarry relies on his technique and moxy to win fights. This fight will all depend on whether or not Maia can get it to the ground. Expect Quarry to tag Maia at will and wear him down, making his takedown attempts less and less effective. Maia is relentless though, and unlike guys like Jorge Gurgel and Andy Wang, he knows where his bread is buttered. This will be fascinating to watch, and I'll have more to say about this in the audio preview, but I'm taking Quarry to weather the storm and win a close fight.
Prediction: Quarry by decision
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson
Word on the streets is this is a #1 contender fight. I think that's half right. If Florian wins he definitely deserves another title shot, as he's transformed himself since his loss to Sean Sherk, and this would be his sixth straight victory over solid competition. Stevenson, on the other hand, was recently dismantled by BJ Penn, and in my opinion would still be a fight with Sean Sherk away from another title shot even if he gets past Florian on Saturday. As far as the match-up itself, I like Florian. His gameplanning, spearheaded by Mark Dellagrate, is the best in the game right now. In fact we probably get to watch the two SMARTEST fighters in MMA in Florian and Randy Couture on Saturday. Florian will use the same gameplan against Stevenson that he did to beat and frustrate Roger Huerta: avoid close exchanges, avoid the clinch, avoid the takedown, and score with combos before moving out of harm's way. Simple enough.
Prediction: Florian by decision
Randy Couture (c) vs. Brock Lesnar
This is it. This is the biggest fight in UFC history. The coverage beforehand and the numbers after will bare that out. The ageless wonder in Couture trying to teach a lesson the freakishly athletic monster in Lesnar. We all know about Couture's problems with the true big men in the past (i.e. Barnett and Ricco), and how he's supposedly solved those problems recently with superior preparation (see: Sylvia, Tim and Gonzaga, Gabriel). Brock Lesnar is something completely different from all of these before him. Brock Lesnar isn't just a great athlete for a man his size. He's a great athlete for a man any size. Think GSP-like natural gifts on a man 285lbs. We'll no doubt see Lesnar's chin tested on Saturday. We'll also see Randy's. The last time that happened he was laying unconscious on the mat following a shot that pushed him into retirement by Chuck Liddell. If it goes into the championship rounds, I'll give the advantage to Randy (begrudgingly) because of the experience factor, but Brock's cardio is legendary. I just don't see it going that far.
Prediction: Lesnar by TKO in round 3
Well there it is folks. An historic show all written out before it happens. How about some fake money picks?
$200 on Hendricks (+680)
$200 on dos Anjos (+245)
$300 on McCrory (+325)
$300 on Bocek (+110)
Well that's it for me. Stay tuned to the Torch all week as we'll have this show and everything else covered from all angles. Also remember to get your picks in for the Contests.
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Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
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