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By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist The UFC comes to the big city on Wednesday. That's right, they're in Omaha. Nebraska. Hey any new city (i.e. not Vegas) is good with me. Anyways, we're doing a little contest thingy here in case you haven't heard (why haven't you heard?!), and I thought I'd impart all of my wisdom that will surely result in a .500 evening for myself.
UFN's are like mini-ppv's so my UFN preview will be like a mini-ppv preview. So let's get to it shall we...
ALESSIO SAKARA VS. JOE VEDEPO
Sakara loves to slug it out, but has no power and a glass jaw. Sound strategy, especially against a guy with power. Five of Vedepo's eight fights haven't gone past the first round and none have gone to the judges. Sounds like he likes to slug it out too.
Prediction: Vedepo by TKO in round 1
JASON BRILZ VS. BRAD MORRIS
One fight combined for these guys in the Octagon, and that was a TKO loss to Cain Velasquez in the first round by Morris. So...not much to go on here. I'd usually go with the guy with the UFC experience but I don't think we've seen enough to draw any conclusions about Morris. Brilz on the other hand comes in with a sparkling 15-1-1 record with finishes in 13 of his 15 victories and wins over Jason MacDonald, Alex Schoenauer, and Mike Patt. That's good enough for me.
Prediction: Brilz by Submission in round 2
DREW MCFEDRIES VS. MIKE MASSENZIO
See, this is a case where I'm taking the UFC experience. I don't know what kind of game Massenzio brings, but I know exactly what McFedries brings, and that's "the pain". McFedries isn't the most versatile fighter, but he'll overwhelm Massenzio and look to put him on the highlight reel. Don't blink.
Prediction: McFedries by TKO in round 1
DAN MILLER VS. ROB KIMMONS
I can't tell you much about Miller, other than he's fought a couple times in the IFL, and his only career loss came by decision to my man Mike Massenzio. Kimmons has been around the block. Like, three times. He's a grizzled veteran of the minor leagues, and when he finally got his shot on the big stage, he didn't disappoint, submitting Rob Yundt in his UFC debut back in June. I get the feeling Miller might be one of those "highly touted prospect" things, but I'm taking the crafty ground fighter here.
Prediction: Kimmons by submission in round 2
JOE LAUZON VS. KYLE BRADLEY
I'm hoping this one makes it onto the TV, because like Luke Cummo and Jason Lambert, Lauzon is one of my guilty pleasures (I seem to have a lot of male guilty pleasures for a married, straight guy. Maybe I should call them something else?). I guess I just think it's a hilarious when an unassuming, shall we say nerdy-looking guy is a stone cold killer. I don't care what Bradley's credentials are. War J-Lau!
Prediction: Lauzon by decimation (see: TKO) in round 1
WILSON GOUVEIA VS. RYAN JENSEN
Ok this is getting ridiculous. Gouveia is yet another of my...er...guys I like to watch fight even though they're not top stars (pleasures), like Cummo, Lambert, and Lauzon above. I also love his move to 185. He'll be a huge middleweight and won't have to slug it out with the monsters at 205. Oh, and I'm also throwing it out there right now that Gouveia will win two or three fights in a row in impressive fashion and start getting talk about deserving a title shot soon. Oh Jensen? Yeah he's ok. He's no Gouveia though.
Prediction: Gouveia by TKO in round 1
HOUSTON ALEXANDER VS. ERIC SCHAFER
Omaha's own Houston Alexander has really cashed in on his stunning win over Keith Jardine. After being destroyed by his last two opponents, he still finds himself on the main card of a nationally televised event. Maybe because its in his hometown? Maybe. If this fight was anywhere else I'd take Schafer in a heartbeat. He's tough and very good on the ground, an area of incredible weakness for Alexander. The problem is the fight IS in Alexander's hometown. No way he taps in front of his friends and family.
Prediction: Alexander by TKO in round 1
ED HERMAN VS. ALAN BELCHER
I know these two have more name power combined, but I would've much rather seen the Gouveia-Jensen or Lauzon-Bradley fights on the main card. Alas, I'll just have to live with this fight for free on my TV. We know how this story goes. Belcher is great on the feet, while Herman likes to take it to the ground...and pound. The question is whether Herman is smart enough to fight a smart fight, or whether he'll fall into the trap and try to stand with Belcher. I'm guessing (and hoping) its the former.
Prediction: Herman by TKO in round 2
MAC DANZIG VS. CLAY GUIDA
This is the first of two fantastic lightweight clashes to end the evening. If it were up to me this would be the main event, but I understand that Nate Diaz is the biggest star of the four. Anywho, this will be a fun contrast in mindsets, if not styles. Guida brings it 100mph from bell to bell...and then runs laps around the Octagon afterwards. Danzig is much more calm and collected and likes to wait for his opponent to make a mistake and then pounce. Guida will give him opportunities, but will Danzig take advantage of the milliseconds Guida will give him to do so? Both fighters prefer the ground, so expect a stand-up fight until one fighter is able to gain a distinct advantage. If Roger Huerta can submit Guida, then certainly Danzig can do the same. Just depends on if he's quick enough.
Prediction: Danzig by submission in round 3
NATE DIAZ VS. JOSH NEER
This should be a hell of a fight while it lasts. I think Nate Diaz is allergic to decisions because as soon as his fights hit the mat he starts looking for every submission he has in his head. There's a lot, by the way. I honestly think Cesar Gracie is just holding off on giving Diaz his black belt to help keep him grounded. Neer, on the other hand, will have a distinct size advantage, coming down to 155 after spending his whole career at welterweight. He's a smart, technical brawler, if that makes any sense. Oddly enough, this would be the highest profile win for the Militech camp since Matt Hughes was the champ. Oh how the mighty have fallen. I like Neer, but this is Diaz's time and I've learned my lesson about picking against him. I can't picture how he'll do it, but somehow, some way Diaz will force Neer to tap out.
Prediction: Diaz by submission in round 2
Ok so that was actually a reasonably long preview, despite some breakdowns not being so heavy on "analysis". Don't forget to get your picks in for the Torch "Money in the Bank" contest. If I get a decent turnout and people like it, I might do this again for some of the...shall we say, smaller shows (I'm looking at you EliteXC). Good luck to anyone who entered!
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