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CATTELANE: To Reclaim A Title - UFC 87 fight-by-fight analysis and predictions MMA Torch Columnist, Jerry Cattelane
Aug 8, 2008 - 6:53:37 PM
Tonight, many questions will be answered at UFC 87. The most pressing, of course, will be can I regain one of my Torch Championships? Having had a 3-0 record in these situations, I feel pretty confident, however, this is an unusual sort of event, simply because there are so many fighters on the card that I like to root for.
Oh well.
Let's get to it.
RYAN THOMAS (9-1, 3 TKO, 6 Sub)(+225) vs. BEN SAUNDERS (5-0-2, 2 TKO, 2 Sub)(-285)
Thomas has been very active, going 4-1 since Saunders was last in the cage. It'll be the UFC debut for Thomas. Saunders won his debut by decision against Daniel Barrera. Usually, I don't like taking a guy in his first UFC fight, but Thomas has been active and he has been winning in a hurry. So, I'll go with Thomas by second round submission.
STEVE BRUNO (11-3, 6 TKO, 4 Sub)(+265) VS. CHRIS WILSON (13-4, 6 TKO, 5 Sub)(-325)
Bruno trains out of Fort Lauderdale and, while I am a fan of the local guys, it's hard to root against Wilson. Wilson was last seen going the distance with Jon Fitch who, by the end of the night could be the division champion. Not bad. Wilson by second round TKO.
JON JONES (5-0, 4 TKO, 1 Sub)(+190) VS. ANDRE GUSMAO (5-0, 3 TKO, 1 Sub)(-240)
I love these battle of undefeated guys making their UFC debut. It's such a crapshoot some times. Gusmao has made his name in the IFL and, thus may have a better handle on the big time atmosphere. It looks to be a striker's fight, however, and we all know that can go either way. I'll go along with Gusmao by first round TKO, although I wouldn't be shocked if he lost.
DAN EVENSEN (10-2, 6 TKO, 1 Sub) (+400) VS. CHEICK KONGO (11-4-1, 7 TKO, 1 Sub)(-550)
I didn't realize Kongo was 4-2 in the UFC. Who knew? Both fighters have a win over Christian Wellisch, but it would appear that this a showcase for Kongo to demonstrate his admirable striking skills. Kongo by first round TKO.
TAMDAN MCCRORY (8-1, 6 TKO, 2 Sub)(+115) VS. LUKE CUMMO (6-5, 4 TKO, 1 Sub)(-145)
This should be fun. Serra Jitsu and UFC veteran Luke Cummo faces the "Barn Cat" Tamdan McCrory. It's a measure of anonymity that Cummo at 6-5 is a favorite here. I think McCrory is the better fighter and will pull this one out by decision.
JASON MACDONALD (20-9, 3 TKO, 16 Sub)(+205) VS. DEMIAN MAIA (7-0, 1 TKO, 4 Sub)(-255)
I'm looking forward to this bout. MacDonald is a very good fighter in a division that has a range of ability. Maia has looked like an absolute jiu-jitsu monster in his short MMA career. MacDonald definitely has some chops on the ground, but Maia is a different breed indeed. I am wondering if MacDonald can utilize his reach to keep Maia away and punish Maia on his feet. Somehow, I have a hard time seeing this end any other way but a first round submission win for Maia.
ROB EMERSON (7-6, 2 TKO, 1 Sub)(+275) VS. MANNY GAMBURYAN (8-2, 2 TKO, 5 Sub)(-345)
Gamburyan continues his post shoulder injury run in the UFC. Emerson will have his work cut out for him here. The cage always seems to favor the grappler and Gamburyan should be able to close the distance, get a take down and work out a victory. I'll go wth Gamburyan by second round submission.
ROGER HUERTA, Torch Nation #3 ranked UFC lightweight (20-1-1, 10 TKO, 4 Sub)(+115) VS. KENNY FLORIAN, Torch Nation #2 ranked UFC lightweight(9-3, 3 TKO, 6 Sub)(-145)
This should be a doozy. I have not yet been sold on Florian as the next #1 contender. But, if he wins, I believe. The thing is Huerta has looked so impressive on his run up to this point. I think he is the more athletic fighter with better endurance and a better overall game. Still, Florian is the #2 guy for a reason. Great ground skills and improved striking makes for a great matchup with Huerta. I can't wait. Huerta by decision.
HEATH HERRING, Torch Nation #5 ranked UFC heavyweight (28-13, 7 TKO, 16 Sub)(+205) VS. BROCK LESNAR (1-1, 1 Sub)(-255)
I was surprised when Lesnar was put up against Mir in his UFC debut. I was even more surprised when Lesnar nearly took Mir out. I'm flabbergasted that the UFC would put Lesnar in there for his next bout against a veteran like Herring. It's not that I don't think Lesnar can win. In fact, I'm rooting for him, I love his intensity and raw power. But I can't understand why Lesnar wouldn't get built up a little bit more. Herring, despite his debut hiccup against Jake O'Brien, is a guy that had the current champion out on the canvas, but didn't finish the deal. I'm thinking that Herring has enough cage wisdom to fend off Lesnar long enough to lock in a submission victory. Let's say third round.
JON FITCH, Torch Nation #2 ranked UFC welterweight (17-2, 4 TKO, 5 Sub)(+280) VS. GEORGES ST. PIERRE, Torch Nation #1 ranked UFC welterweight (16-2, 7 TKO, 4 Sub)(-350)
Finally, Jon Fitch gets his shot at the title. Well-rounded, aggressive and, by the way, unbeaten in the last five and a half years. The catch is that he runs into a motivated Georges St. Pierre, who may be entering his prime. Aside from the subplot of whether GSP will face B.J. Penn next or whether he will stay with the UFC, it is a breakthrough moment for Fitch who has rarely found his way to the main card. Many, including, yours truly have thought this is long overdue for Fitch. However, when the rubber meets the road, there may not be a better, or more motivated fighter than GSP right now. It's hard to see how this one will go down, but I think Fitch will give GSP fits. However, in the end, it'll be GSP getting a TKO win somewhere in the fourth round.
For the betting championship, here are my picks.
1) Huerta for $500
2) McCrory for $300
3) Thomas for $200
Keep that belt shiny, I'll pick it up in the morning.
