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UFC 87 is less than a week away and is headlined by Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title defense against Jon Fitch and also features what could possibly be a fight of the year contender in Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta; but a heavyweight matchup on the card is one that is intriguing me the most. Heath Herring vs. Brock Lesnar is the matchup and this is going to prove to be a much better fight than the original plan to have Lesnar face UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman. Due to a knee injury suffered in training, Coleman was forced to withdraw from the fight and in stepped Herring. Coleman vs. Lesnar would not have been that bad of a matchup and would have pitted the original wrestling brute against the new model, but this was going to be a fight that favored Brock without any question. To go from Coleman to Herring is like replacing a .22 pistol with a .380 as Coleman, for all of his accomplishments, was just not going to pose the same problems in 2008 as it can be argued that he once would have. Herring on the other hand is a very dangerous opponent and ensures that Lesnar's initiation into the UFC will not get any easier the second time out. I strongly feel that this fight has the potential to be a memorable one.
Brock Lesnar lost in his UFC debut to Frank Mir back in February and hopes to rebound with a win on Saturday night as he gets ready for just his second fight in the UFC and third overall in his MMA career. While he was submitted by Mir with some ease and showed a decided lack of ability it was not for a lack of heart and determination that he ended up on the losing end. Lesnar opened up the fight with a quick assault and took Mir down at will and began to rain down a steady barrage of hammer fists as it appeared that he was in fact going to ground out a victory and pull off the upset. This was not to be and Lesnar was warned once for striking the back of Mir's head and then lost a point for doing so and referee Steve Mazzagatti stood both fighters up. Again, Lesnar took Mir down except this time it was Mir who was able to finish the fight and get the victory by securing a knee bar at 1:30 of the 1st round.
Lesnar didn't necessarily look bad in there but he was definitely outmatched in terms of experience and technical ability. Brock's wrestling ability and his brute strength showed from the outset of the fight, and it can be argued that with more training and work on the many aspects of the fight game that Lesnar has the tools to be a huge success in the sport. When it comes to raw ability it would be a given that he comes to this sport with basic tools that are superior to most heavyweights, and once his skills match both his desire and strength that he could very well be one of the top heavyweights in the world. This time is not right now, though. To open up your UFC career against Frank Mir is something that would not happen to just any fighter and it definitely is Lesnar's name value that accelerated his ascent to the top of the card. When you look at the payouts from UFC 81 and see that Lesnar made $250K in losing and Mir picked up $80K with the win, it is clear who is to mean more to the UFC. Had Mir lost the fight, he would have made $40K which furthers the disparity in pay. Clearly the UFC was hoping for and banking on a Lesnar victory. This was not to be and now they are faced with the possibility of having such a high paid and highly touted prospect sport an 0-2 record and lose a bit of his luster.
This is why this fight could again be the wrong fight for Lesnar as Herring should provide a more formidable challenge than Mark Coleman could have possibly brought to the octagon. Mark Coleman is hailed as the first practitioner of "ground and pound" and definitely served to prove that a dominant wrestler could not only survive in MMA competition but rather thrive and achieve great success. Coleman's UFC career is a decorated one and he definitely has a solid resume but his best days are most certainly behind him as he is set to turn 44 years old in December. Mark was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame on March 1st and at the time announced that he was going to return to UFC competition and face Lesnar at UFC 87. This was to be a fight that would provide Lesnar with a name opponent and hopefully be a way of providing Lesnar with some instant credibility in defeating a Hall of Famer and arguable MMA all-time great. Coleman would have been the perfect gatekeeper and could have provided Lesnar with a game opponent, but nothing more than an opponent at the end of the day. Lesnar is the betting favorite going into UFC 87 but it is no sure bet that this fight will turn out any differently than Brock's fight with Frank Mir. Lesnar faces quite a challenge in Herring and this could go a long way in determining whether he is ready for prime time or if he was brought up to the major leagues too soon.
Heath Herring is 2-2 in his last four fights and is coming off a split decision victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 82. Prior to this fight he had suffered decision losses to current champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and the promising Jake O'Brien with a decision victory over Brad Imes at UFC 69 in between. If we take anything from Heath's last few fights it is that Brock had better be prepared to go a few rounds. The "Texas Crazy Horse" backs down from no one and the colorful Texan always comes prepared to fight. He also comes in with no fear and no worries as far as fighting on Brock's home turf and has been quick to let all members of the media know that this is not his "first rodeo" so to speak; which is nothing short of the truth as Herring has fought over 60 fights by his own count, most of which are not on official record as many took place at very small shows. Experience is on Heath's side and he is not coming to lose or to just give a good showing and he most definitely is not in there to be a name opponent for Lesnar to feed on. Herring comes to win and knows that with this win comes great exposure and the potential for future opportunities with a shot against Mir or perhaps a fourth fight with Nogueira a possibility.
Reportedly Herring is going to be coming into this fight in the shape he was for the Kongo battle and will carry a weight of 250 for the battle with Lesnar. Heath Herring is a formidable foe any day of the week but a highly motivated form and one in great shape is not something that many heavyweights wish to look across the octagon and see. Herring is a very skilled heavyweight when it comes to pulling off submissions and defending the submission is what spelled defeat for Lesnar against Mir. This fight will go a long way toward showing what Brock is made of and what Herring has left. Brock will not be the toughest opponent that Herring has faced but you can be sure that Herring is the toughest test for Brock at this stage of Lesnar's career.
Hank Williams, Jr. once told us in a song that a country boy can survive and that song could be a good way of describing what this fight shall end up turning into on August 9th. Both fighters need this win and neither one of these men are going to back down from the other so survival is exactly what the winner will have done in making it out with a victory. Heath Herring is fighting for the right to remain among those at the top of the heavyweight division and Brock Lesnar is fighting for the right to be included in the aforementioned group, and neither can afford a loss. Should Herring lose it would certainly keep him among the second tier of UFC heavyweights as he will be looked upon as a tough fighter but nothing more than perhaps a gatekeeper. However, if Lesnar were to lose it would put his UFC future in perceived jeopardy as an 0-2 start to his UFC career would not exactly place him in line for a title shot any time soon.
Clearly the UFC wants Lesnar to be the future of the division, and he definitely has the tools to do so, but he has to win and cannot afford to lose this fight. I think that if faced with the prospect of staring across the octagon at either Herring or Lesnar that the protagonist of Hank's song would have chosen to pack up his shotgun and drive his 4-wheel drive truck immediately out of the woods. No such thing will happen inside the octagon on Saturday night as neither man knows how to back down and both refuse to run. This match is all about survival. Future opportunities and a title shot down the line are what both fighters seek and one will have to destroy the other in order to realize this goal. The question on Saturday is not can or even if a country boy can survive but rather which one will survive in this compelling matchup.
