From MMATorch.com
PELKEY COLUMN: UFC 86 full preview with predictions and betting picks
By By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:00:35 PM
It's that time of the month again. No, not that time. Gross. Its time for UFC 86! There's one clear conclusion that you can draw by looking at the card; the UFC brass has faith in both Rampage and Forrest Griffin to sell a pay-per-view on their own. Don't get me wrong, as a fight fan I'm very much looking forward to both Griffin/Aurelio and Cote/Almeida, but they aren't exactly brimming with name power. This is a one fight card for the casual fan, so it'll be interesting to see the buyrate for this show when it comes out. My gut says this is one of the few true superfights out there, and the numbers will reflect it. Basically I'm now just stalling because it's down to crunch time and I still can't decide who I think is winning that fight. Oh well. And the coin says...
JUSTIN McCULLY VS. GABRIEL GONZAGA
Does anyone else remember the McCully/Hardonk fight where we were all thinking, "Man, if only Hardonk had his second stripe on his white belt he could submit McCully"? Well Gonzaga is just a wee bit better than Hardonk on the ground. Oh, and he's probably pretty angry about losing his last two fights. This should (repeat; should) be the easiest fight to predict all night.
Prediction: Gonzaga by submission in round 1
COLE MILLER VS. JORGE GURGEL
Both men are the type of fighters whose strength is on the ground, but prefer to stand because its more fun. I see Gurgel getting the better of the standing exchanges, causing Miller to pull guard in hopes of catching Gurgel in a submission. The only problem? Gurgel is excellent on the ground, while Miller is only very good. Bad recipe for Miller, but I don't see either fighter being finished.
Prediction: Gurgel by decision
DENNIS SIVER VS. MELVIN GUILLARD
In this day and age, when 99% of fighter suspensions are in some way steroid related, Melvin Guillard went old school and tested positive for blow. What is this, the 80's? He's ultra talented, but an absolute headcase. He's like the MMA version of Lawrence Phillips (why do I get the feeling that reference is a lot more obscure than I realize?). Siver likes to win by submission, which, coincidentally, is what Guillard likes to lose by. Guillard has picked up a win in the minor leagues since his last UFC fight, so its really a question of whether he has his head screwed on straight. Coin says no.
Prediction: Siver by submission in round 2
JUSTIN BUCHHOLZ VS. COREY HILL
Hill, the freakishly tall lightweight, won his official UFC debut back in January, stopping Joe Veres with strikes. Buchholz lost his UFC debut to Matt Wiman, but there's no (longer any) shame in that. This will really just come down to whether or not Hill can use his reach advantage and keep Buchholz on the outside. I don't think it'll happen. Buchholz will get inside and eventually takedown Hill and punish him from the top. Lather, rinse, repeat for three rounds.
Prediction: Buchholz by decision
GLEISON TIBAU VS. JOE STEVENSON
This is a good first fight back for Joe "Daddy" after his decimation at the hands of BJ Penn. It should be a battle for position for three full rounds, as both of these guys are tough and very well-rounded. I just feel like Stevenson is a little better in all aspects. Not better enough to finish the fight, but better enough to win a convincing, not dominating decision.
Prediction: Stevenson by decision
PATRICK COTE VS. RICARDO ALMEIDA
Patrick Cote is on a role after dropping his first four fights in the UFC. Almeida has one fight (and victory) back since his return from a four year sabbatical. If you believe the voiceover hype-man, this fight is for a title shot. I'm a fan of both, and would welcome seeing either of them fight Anderson Silva before Yushin Okami (blech), but do they really deserve it? Are these two really the next two in line? Best not to analyze how the UFC determines it's #1 contenders. Its known to cause nausea. As for the fight itself, it doesn't set-up well for Cote. His weakness, and its a glaring one, is on the ground, which is right where "Big Dog" excels. I hope I'm wrong, because lord knows Cote has paid his dues, but I can't see this going any other way.
Prediction: Almeida by submission in round 2
MARCUS AURELIO VS. TYSON GRIFFIN
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm just not a fan of Griffin. He's 4-1 in the UFC, but his last four fights have all gone to a decision. Granted, they've all been pretty exciting fights, but sooner or later I just need to see a finish. Unfortunately he's matched-up here with another fighter I don't think he can finish. Aurelio is very tough and has a victory over Takanori Gomi on his resume. Not even Nick Diaz can say that (but he can think it). Aurelio is our only hope for a finish in this fight. He's fantastic on the ground, with ten of his sixteen victories coming by submission. I'm picking with my heart instead of my head here, but...
Prediction: Aurelio by submission in round 3
CHRIS LYTLE VS. JOSH KOSCHECK
I'm not quite sure why this is the second to last fight on the card. On paper, Koscheck should steamroll his way to victory. Lytle, for his part, is very tough and does have the proverbial "puncher's chance" here. If he can endure the early takedowns, he could pull a Drew Fickett and catch Koscheck with a fight-ending shot. I just don't think Koscheck will ever get the chance. This is the second easiest fight to predict after Gonzaga/McCully.
Prediction: Koscheck by decision
QUINTON JACKSON VS. FORREST GRIFFIN
Well the TUF 7 coaches will finally collide to determine the top light-heavyweight in the world. Well, they'll at least decide who gets to wear that big pretty belt for a while. Forrest's strength lies in his cardio. He loves to wear his opponents down and then take advantage of them when they're weakened. Unfortunately for him, Rampage doesn't wear down. He's as strong at the end of his fights as he is at the beginning. I keep trying to convince myself there's some way Forrest can win this fight. I got nothin. Rampage claimed there's no way this fight is going the distance. I'm calling his bluff.
Prediction: Jackson by decision
Well there's the picks. No need to enter the contests now folks. Might as well hand me the belts now. Or not. You know, whatever.
Betting picks:
$200 on Buchholz
$200 on Siver
$200 on Tibau
$200 on Aurelio
$200 on Griffin (Forrest)
Don't forget to get your picks to me or the forum before Saturday.
© Copyright by MMATorch.com