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Opinion & Analysis
Pelkey's UFC 84 Predictions and Betting Contest picks
By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
May 22, 2008
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Well unfortunately I didn't end up having time to put together a full,
in-depth preview. I'm leaving for Florida early, EARLY in the morning,
and I've spent the day running errands and packing. I'm pretty sure
I'll be able to catch the show, but my internet access between tomorrow
and Monday will be limited to non-existent. Still, as long as I've
received your picks before Saturday night either by email or on the
message boards, I'll consider them valid. So what is everyone waiting
for? So far only Rich Boles and Scott Hart have sent in their picks. So
get to it! Time's a wastin'. Alright, enough of my blathering. Here's
my quick-hitter picks and bets.
1. Terry Etim vs. Rich Clementi- Clementi seems focused and is on maybe
the best roll of his career. Etim isn't bad, he just isn't as good at
anything as Clementi
Prediction: Clementi by submission in round 2
2. Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. John Koppenhaver- I
don't know much about Yoshida, except that he isn't the Olympic Judoka
we all know and love. I feel like they want War Machine to be a star.
Should be his fight then.
Prediction: Koppenhaver by decision
3. Antonio Mendes vs. Thiago Silva- This was originally supposed to be
Silva vs. Rashad Evans. Can we go back to that? This is a classic
showcase fight. Silva is dominant in victory.
Prediction: Silva by submission in round 1
4. Shane Carwin vs. Christian
Wellisch- Carwin comes in undefeated and Wellisch has never impressed
me. That's about all I know about this fight. Coin flip says Carwin is
good enough to overcome UFC debut jitters.
Prediction: Carwin by tko in round 1
5. Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Rameau
Sokoudjou- Oh, how times have changed. This would've been quite the
match-up more than a year ago in Pride. Now both fighters are coming
off losses, and this fight isn't even on the main card. Soku is the
better fighter, but its not as lopsided as the betting line would
indicate.
Prediction: Sokoudjou by decision
6. Jason Tan vs. Dong-Hyun Kim- Says
here that you've gotta be one tough SOB to get this far in life with
the name Dong. How's that for expert analysis? Kim is a pretty heavy
favorite, so the real gamblin' men must know something I don't.
Prediction: Kim by tko in round 2
7. Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan
Salaverry- Ivan Salaverry comeback: take 2. Hopefully it goes a little
better for him this time around. I love Salaverry, but his time as a
competitive fighter may be running out. I hope I'm wrong, but...
Prediction: Palhares by tko in round 1
8. Goran Reljic vs. Wilson Gouveia- I still don't understand why they
couldn't have moved Gouveia up to fight Silva after Rashad was moved
into the fight with Chuck Liddell. Then you would've had a legitimate
contender's fight between Gouveia and Silva, and Mendes and Reljic
could've fought on the undercard to prove their worth to the UFC. But
hey, what do I know? Anyways, Gouveia is one of my favorite fighters,
and if he can knock out Jason Lambert, I can't see him losing to a
newcomer.
Prediction: Gouveia by submission in round 2
9. Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva- Now we get into the meat of the
show. Jardine could potentially be a fight or two away from a title
fight, but then again he knocked out the guy who's challenging for the
belt next. So maybe it doesn't matter what he does. Silva desperately
needs a win here. A loss would be his fourth in a row, and would
basically be the nail in the coffin of his career. He needs this win to
stay relevant, and to keep his drawing power up for future fights.
Silva is also personally predicting a knockout and fight of the night.
Who am I to disagree with someone nicknamed "The Axe Murderer"?
Prediction: Silva by ko in round 3
10. Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz- Ortiz is apparently on his way out
the door and could use a win here to up his asking price in
negotiations with other companies. Machida, on the other hand, is on a
rapid ascent to the top of the division. I think Joe Silva was smart in
matching these two up as it will give Machida a win that the fans will
respect, and it gives Tito a loss on his way out the door. Everybody
wins (well, except for Tito, but who cares about him?).
Prediction: Machida by decision
11. Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn- Ok, ok I know conventional wisdom says that
BJ will gas at some point and won't be able to stop Sherk's takedowns
en route to a decision loss for the Prodigy. But this just feels like a
different BJ. He seems focused and mature for the first time in his
career. It's like a light went on in his head and he said, "wait, I
could be the best fighter on the planet if I actually tried". Well it
seems like he's trying. Sherk is nearly impossible to submit, but I
think BJ will have some tricks up his sleeve come Saturday. It's the
Prodigy's time.
Prediction: BJ Penn by submission in round 3
Well that certainly turned out to be a longer preview than I had intended. Oh well. Here's my fake money bets...
$300 on Sherk
$300 on Jardine
$200 on Palhares
$100 on Nakamura
$100 on Mendes
There you have it folks. Sure-fire, fool-proof predictions and bets. Of
course, unless I'm wrong. Don't forget you can email me your picks at
matt6buckeye@hotmail.com or post them on the message boards. Deadline
is Saturday afternoon. Good luck all!
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