Editor's Note: With his UFC 68 predictions, Jerry Cattelane will be defending his MMATorch Prediction Championship for the first time in head-to-head competition with MMATorch writer Mike Jarsulic.
UFC 68 comes to you from the heartland with several hometown boys. Oddly enough, the most intriguing match-ups may be on the undercard and never make the light of the PPV. That’s a shame actually as I’d rather see two evenly matched guys go at it. More to the point, I think my title defense is going to live and die in the first three matches. Nothing like being selfish, eh?
Let’s get to it.
1 - Jamie Varner (-433) vs. Jason Gilliam (+393)
The first fight of the night looks great. Varner is a heavy favorite based on his performance against Hermes Franca back in August. Granted, he lost, but he put on a good show and lasted into the third round before getting submitted. I would imagine this is why he is listed as a more than 4 to 1 favorite. Gilliam, on the other hand, is 9-0 and is coming off two wins in King of the Cage in the last 4 months. I caught some of his ground and pound and it really didn’t look that bad. Neither of these guys has really fought upper level competition with the exception of Varner’s one fight with Franca. Both of these guys seem to be at home on the mat and both seem to be able to strike or submit someone when they get there. This really should be a great fight. Neither guy has gone three rounds in a long time. I see no reason why Gilliam can’t take advantage of Varner on the mat and get the win. He looks bigger and I think in a match that goes to the ground, it’ll give him the edge. It might be early to take a dog especially if Jarsulic is getting a sneak peek at my picks, but I’ll go for it anyway. If I gotta go down, it’ll be in flames. Gilliam by TKO in Round 3.
2 - Gleison Tibau (-254) vs. Jason Dent (+234)
This should be another pretty good battle. Dent, at 12-7, is coming off a decision loss to Roger (My knee hit his shoulder!) Huerta. Before that one though, he hasn’t fought a whole lot of guys with winning records. Granted, he has some “good” losses in his background to some decent fighters, but still, it ain’t like winning. Tibau, for his part, is 11-4. You last saw him in the UFC getting owned by Nick Diaz (and that doesn’t seem so bad these days, does it?) back in November. To be fair, Tibau looked pretty good in round 1, but Diaz amped it up late in the round and took him out in the second. Since then, Tibau has dropped down in weight and will likely be a little quicker and stronger than Dent is expecting. This will likely end up on the ground as both fighters have most of their wins by submission. I look for the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champ to pull out the win here. It might go the distance given both fighters ability to defend on the ground. I like Tibau here. Tibau by Unanimous Decision.
3 - Jon Fitch (-332) vs. Luigi Fioravanti (+302)
Jon Fitch hasn’t lost since December of 2002 winning eleven in a row, including four straight in the UFC. He’s beaten some quality guys in Josh Burkman, Thiago Alves and Brock Larson. Fitch’s last four opponents have a combined record of 48-9, but are 0-4 against Fitch. Fitch is a versatile fighter and is in the top 10 of most board's welterweight rankings. Word has it that Fitch is a little pissed to be curtain-jerking on this card, but he is in for a battle against Fioravanti. Fioravanti is 10-1 and has a very solid ground game. At 2-1 in the UFC, his only loss came at the hands of Chris Leben via decision. I think Fitch has the edge standing up and I think that he can match Fioravanti on the ground well enough to earn a victory here. Also, I believe that Fitch wants to get on the main side of the card and a convincing win here should do it. Fitch by TKO in Round 2.
4 - Matt Hamill (-310) vs. Rex Holman (+280)
There’s not a lot of love for Hamill on most of the internet chat boards and, to be frank (or in my case, Jerry), I don’t really understand this. After the big TUF run-up and promos on Spike, do you really think UFC will hang Matt in there with anyone he can’t take, especially in a PPV in Matt’s home state? Of course not. By all accounts, Holman is an accomplished wrestler and sports a 4-1 record with 3 TKOs. Oddly enough, his only loss came by rear naked choke. With this in mind, it is very hard to pick against Hamill who is a whopping 2-0 in the UFC. And, with that in mind, why should you? Look for Hamill to come out firing on all cylinders. Rumor has it that his striking and ground game has gotten better and that he is very psyched up for this fight. Hamill lands a few shots, gets a takedown and ground and pounds his way to a win. Hamill by TKO in Round 2.
5 - Renato Sobral (-397) vs. Jason Lambert (+367)
Babalu returns after his highlight knockout to Chuck Liddell to face a challenge in Lambert. You may have seen this umpteen times on every UFC highlight reel shown in the last six months. Sobral is the guy in the red trunks eating Chuck’s left shin. Dig this though. Since 2001, Sobral has only lost to Liddell (twice), Kevin Randleman (decision) and some can named Fedor Emelianenko by decision. That’s it. Lambert, on the other hand, is pretty well seasoned himself. Coming off a loss to Rashad Evans by strikes, he looks to get back on the winning track too. But, what a spot to be in. Sobral is in a tough spot himself. He needs a win to keep himself in the title picture until Chuck loses the title and he can get another shot (unless we see Sobral-Liddell 3). Lambert can move up the ladder with a win, but he is a pretty big dog here. I didn’t see the last Sobral-Liddell fight, but I am told that Sobral was doing pretty well until he got overanxious and paid the price. I see Babalu taking Lambert to the mat and collecting a submission victory. This is his way back to the top of the card and he knows it. Plus, his experience against bigger and better names says he can get it done. Sobral by Submission in Round 1.
6 - Rich Franklin (-433) vs. Jason MacDonald (+393)
Up until late last year, Rich Franklin was one of the most feared names in MMA. Pound for pound, “Ace” was always in the discussion. Then, along came a spider. Anderson Silva to be specific and, in devastating fashion changed the way we look at the 185 lb. division. Jason MacDonald has looked good in knocking off two TUF hopefuls by submission. Because of this, many people have sipped the Kool-Aid and believe MacDonald will take out Franklin. “The Athlete” has very good ground skills and 16 wins by submission. Obviously, there is nobody of Franklin’s caliber remotely on the list. On the face of it, one could make the argument that Franklin’s brutal knockout will work against him and, perhaps that we’re starting to see Rich’s decline (see Silva, Wanderlei). I think the opposite. This is not a great match-up for MacDonald. Franklin is still a premiere striker and before submitting Leben in his last fight, MacDonald ate a few. Franklin is in a different striking class from Leben (indeed from most middleweights!) and his ground game is pretty solid. MacDonald will battle, but I think this one will look more like Sakurai-Danzig, than Silva-Henderson. Franklin by KO in Round 2.
7 - Martin Kampmann (-256) vs. Drew McFedries (+236)
Drew McFedries returns to the octagon after a stunning knockout of Alessio Sakara after picking up the fight on short notice. Nothing like a Miletich guy on the quick is there? Anyway, the win ran his record to 5-1 against his biggest challenge to date. His reward? Getting a date with “the Hitman” Martin Kampmann. Kampmann is 14-2 and has lost exactly once since October of 2002. His last wins have come against Thales Leites and Crafton Wallace, no pushovers there. Kampmann can really bang and McFedries will have his hands full here. If he gets hit in this one like he did against Sakara, it will be a short night in the cage. I like Kampmann here a lot. I can’t say why Kampmann is undervalued here, unless the memory of McFedries knockout is fresh in everyone’s mind. I see this one standing for quite a while and it should be a nice slugfest until Kampmann lands a bomb. Kampmann by KO in Round 2.
8 - Matt Hughes (-565) vs. Chris Lytle (+515)
Ah, the long road back starts for Matt Hughes. You have to feel for Lytle a little bit, don’t you? He loses to Serra in a toss-a-coin decision and as a reward he gets a reinvigorated Matt Hughes. Geez, where do I sign up? A review of Lytle’s record is not very impressive. In fact, there’s not too many wins there against quality sort of opponents, although an actual review of the fights shows a few really good efforts. In any case, running into Hughes at this point in Matt’s career is not a favorable match-up for Chris. Lytle has 15 submissions to his credit, but Hughes has already publicly stated that he is returning to his bread and butter, the matwork. This is bad news for Lytle who will likely be on the wrong side of Hughes’ takedowns early and often. If Hughes shows any of the fire that he has shown in the past during his title reign, this won’t take long. Hughes by TKO in Round 1.
9 - Tim Sylvia (-279) vs. Randy Couture (+259) {Heavyweight Championship}
As I become more ingrained in the MMA culture and expand my knowledge base, it is harder to get away from fighters who were great and are less great now. It is even harder to get away from their supporters to see a clear path of logic. This fight epitomizes that thought. I have read on countless boards and chat rooms about Randy Couture’s legacy. Unfortunately for me, most of Randy’s stellar career occurred before I got into this genre. There is no question he is a legend and a hall-of-famer. But there is also no question, that he stands little chance of winning this fight. I have read countless opinions on how people want Randy to win, but I have yet to see a cohesive account of how he WILL win. You may not like Tim Sylvia. Personally, I think a guy that wants to win regardless of how it looks is not necessarily a bad thing. He obviously loves being champion and what’s wrong with that? Sylvia is a big guy with heavy hands. Sylvia’s takedown defense is pretty darn good as evidenced in the snoozefest match against Monson. Couture is only 4-5 since 2002, getting TKOed by Liddell (twice), Josh Barnett and Vitor Belfort. The evidence would suggest that Couture is not going to do well against a good striker who has good takedown defense to prevent Couture’s impressive ground and pound. So, why would you take Couture? Because you’re old-school and remember how he was. Hence, a heavy favorite in Tim Sylvia being undervalued at (-279). For you people of fortune out there, let that line dwindle as the Couture fanboys drive it down and then bet it hard and take away some jingle. I look for Randy to try to get in on Tim early unsuccessfully. I think Tim will pick away with his jab and take his shots as they come until he gets an opening and pounds Randy out. Sylvia by TKO in Round 4.
So, there you have it. 8 favorites and 1 dog. There has to be an upset somewhere. There’s ALWAYS an upset. I’ll go with Gilliam and take my chances. Good luck everybody!
UFC 68 Playing with Money Contest Wagers
Now, let’s get to betting. Like I said last time, the idea is to find a dog and ride that puppy to some profit. In real life, you may look at things a little differently.
Personally, I like a four way parlay with Sylvia, Hughes, Franklin and Sobral. (I really like an 8 way with those four plus Hamill, Fitch, Kampmann and Tibau.) I agree not very ballsy, but it’s at least a 3 to 1 payout. Tossing Hamill in there might bump it to 4 to 1. I also like Sylvia big at (-279). But, that’s not the point here.
Last time out I went 2-2. Losing on Danzig (-250) and Silva (-266) (ugh!) and winning on Diaz (+741.78) and Trigg (+700). All in all, an up night to the tune of (+925.78) not counting the payback of the original wager amounts. Not bad, not nearly good enough to win. So, who can we lay our theoretical $1000 on?
I think there are two ways to go. Find your favorite and go big and toss little bets at a couple of dogs. Something like Sylvia for $700 and two dogs at a $150 each.
Or, find your dog of choice and go hard. I’ll go for option two. Go big or go home, right?
I like Gilliam’s chances and the odds are perfect for a big win. Since I’m throwing my title out there on his back, let’s toss most of our wad at him too. At (+393), only Lytle (+515) and MacDonald (+393) are equal or better odds and neither of them are facing similar competition. I think Gilliam has better than a 1 in 5 chance of winning, so I’m sold there. The problem is that there aren’t are a whole lot of dogs out there that I think can really win. McFedries has a chance, but Kampmann is a quality opponent. I’m not drinking the Couture juice. Fioravanti is good, but I think Fitch has something to prove. I don’t think I’m going there. The favorites need too much to lay to get a decent return for such a little bet. Looks like I’m going all in. OK, Here it is:
1) $800 Bet on Gilliam (+393)
2) $100 Bet on Holman (+280)
3) $100 Bet on Dent (+234)
Ugh. Where do I sign up for the Jason Gilliam fan club?
PREDICTION CONTEST: Send in Your Picks for UFC 68 to Go Head-to-Head for the MMATorch Prediction Championship
