...OH, ONE MORE THING - PLEASE BOOKMARK US & VISIT DAILY!
by Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Senior Columnist **image1***Yes, I know. UFC 101 is upon us at the moment, but I started writing this right before the whole Affliction debacle happened, and now that that particular situation has calmed down just a little, the next big event is already here. And before we hit the lightweight division after 101, it's time to wrap up the heavies.
With Brock Lesnar's thrashing of Frank Mir at UFC 100, a new era was ushered into the UFC heavyweight division. With all doubt about Lesnar's worthiness to the throne having been essentially erased, the question remains how long Lesnar can reign over what has historically been one of the UFC's more unstable divisions.
THE CHAMP
Brock Lesnar (4-1): I said it on the post-UFC 100 podcast, and I'll say it again here: Brock Lesnar is a bad man. If I told you three years ago that any fighter would come into the UFC on his second pro fight and beat Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir, you'd think I was crazy. That in and of itself legitimizes Lesnar. No one has ever faced this kind of competition in the Zuffa age of MMA and come out of it with a title and a 4-1 record. I'm sorry, but it just hasn't happened. Lesnar is a monster, and he's going to hold the belt for a long time. It'll be interesting to see how he contends with a power puncher that has good wrestling (hello, Shane Carwin), but I still don't see him losing. And by the way, if you're wondering how Lesnar will go down in the pantheon of heavyweight champions, the record for consecutive title defenses is a meager two times. With one more, Lesnar ties that record.
THE CONTENDERS
I said before UFC 100 that a fight between Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez (but more likely the fight between Couture and Nogueira next month) could determine the next number one contender. Of course, some of that reasoning had to do with timing, as in filling the end-of-year show with a heavyweight title match. Of course, I was leaving out the possibility that the heavyweight crown would be defended next year on Super Bowl weekend. So it's been announced now that the Velasquez-Carwin winner will receive a title shot. And that makes them both…
A STEP OR TWO AWAY
Shane Carwin (11-0): If it weren't for Lesnar at the top, you'd almost have to consider Carwin the heir apparent to the heavyweight throne. At 11-0, Carwin has six wins by TKO and five wins by submission, and he's never been into the third minute of a fight. That's just insane. I don't mean to look past the very tough Cain Velasquez, whom Carwin will meet at UFC 104, but I can't think of a lot of guys who have the skill set to neutralize what relative little we've seen of Carwin so far. As for Velasquez, if he couldn't handle Cheick Kongo's power, he's getting dropped against Carwin, because you're not going to get that guy down with a double-leg while you're stunned. Don't be surprised if it's Carwin and Lesnar for the gold on Super Bowl weekend.
Cain Velasquez (6-0): The difference between Cain Velasquez and the first two fighters I mentioned is that he's five years younger than Lesnar and seven years younger than Carwin. Velasquez has looked very impressive in his four UFC fights, and he's got a shot at being the number one contender in the heavyweight division when he squares off against Shane Carwin at UFC 104. That's the fight which will tell us if Velasquez is in over his head at this point in his career. I don't know for sure what the answer is, but if I had to make a prediction, I see Carwin taking that fight in short order.
UP AND COMERS
Junior dos Santos (8-1): "Cigano" made an immediate impression when he burst onto the scene at UFC 90, knocking out Fabricio Werdum with a wicked uppercut just over a minute into the fight. He proved that it was no fluke when he dropped giant Dutchman Stefan Struve at UFC 95 four months later. Dos Santos will face the stiffest test of his young career when he fights Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 103. Should he be able to vanquish the hard-hitting Croatian, it would be yet another boon to the young fighter's career.
Tim Hague (10-1): Hague only has one fight in the UFC, but he made it an impressive one when he took out K-1 veteran Pat Barry in under two minutes with a guillotine choke. Hague showed good durability and ingenuity in his win, weathering an early storm by the hard-hitting Barry before sinking the fight-ending choke. Hague is a monster at 6'4", 260 lbs. He's gone to decision only twice, against the same man each time (Miodrag Petkovic). He lost the first split decision to Petkovic (his only loss) but avenged that loss in his last pre-UFC fight in October of 2008. Hague will get a shot at another UFC rookie, Todd Duffee, at UFC 102.
ON THE REBOUND
Randy Couture (16-9): Couture is a legend for sure, and it's almost misleading to put him in this category, as he has nothing left to prove in the fight game. But he is coming off of a high-profile loss, and if he can't win his next fight, you've got to wonder what's next for "The Natural." He's beaten two heavyweights who were in the top ten at the time he faced them (Sylvia and Gonzaga), but fell to the new champion Lesnar. An intriguing and telling fight with "Big Nog" awaits at UFC 102.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1): The Brazilian legend is coming off of what has to be the most disappointing loss in his career. Very few, myself included, gave Frank Mir and his non-existent (or so we thought) cardio a chance against the former champion. Mir only owned one TKO victory before this fight, and it was as ugly as they come against Wes Sims way back at UFC 46. But Mir gave Nogueira a sound beating, becoming the first to stop the man who twice took Fedor Emelianenko to a decision. Despite loud rumors of illness before the fight, Nogueira will still have to rid himself of the "too old" and "too much punishment" stigmas now that he's been stopped by Mir. His first test in doing so will be no easy task, as he takes on "The Natural" at UFC 102.
Frank Mir (12-4): Mir is in a unique position. He's coming off of a brutal one-sided beating at the hands of Brock Lesnar, but he didn't lose much in defeat. With Lesnar's size causing alarmists to cry out for a Cruiserweight division, Mir had a built-in excuse for losing the fight. So while he is on the rebound, fans (again, including myself) eagerly await his next contest to see the continued evolution of "the new Frank Mir." People said that he was "back" after the Big Nog fight, but the Mir that fought against Nogueira never existed before that night. The guy who came into the Lesnar fight with diversified striking and a decent gas tank was not the pre-Nogueira Frank Mir. It will be very interesting to see Mir in his next fight.
THE POOL
The Heavyweight pool is littered with the large bodies of contenders both past and future. Even though the division is light years ahead of where it was a few years ago, the road to number one contender lies only a few impressive victories away. There are many who would lay claim to a contender's spot, so let's look around at who does and doesn't have a chance.
The refreshing thing about the UFC's heavyweight division these days is that while we typically don't see as many heavyweight fights as in other divisions, most of the competitors here have either fought in the last couple of months, or they have fights coming up. There are only a few that have seen extended periods of inaction (I'm looking at you, Heath Herring.) Herring (28-14) last saw action in August of 2008 when he was dominated for three rounds by current king Brock Lesnar. The Texan was scheduled to fight at UFC 99 against Cain Velasquez, but was forced to withdraw due to illness. He has yet to have another fight scheduled. Velasquez, for his part, went on to defeat Cheick Kongo (14-5-1) at the event, setting the Frenchman back again in his quest for a title shot. Kongo will need to string together some more wins and show that he can handle a grappler if he hopes to lay claim to a contender's spot.
Also in action on the UFC's first card in Germany was fellow Velasquez victim Denis Stojnic (5-3), who could not pick up his first Octagon win against Holland's 6'10" Stefan Struve (17-3). Struve, currently only 21 years old, picked up a rear naked choke victory in round two despite suffering a horrendous cut in the first round that could easily have ended the fight. The Dutchman will be one to watch, as he's been fighting since he was 17 and still has nowhere to go but up, despite his debut loss to Junior dos Santos. Speaking of dos Santos, his next opponent is the venerable Mirko Filipovic (25-6-2). "Cro Cop" will take on dos Santos at UFC 103 in what is sure to be a slugfest. The Croatian has been fighting for a very long time between his K-1 and MMA careers, and he's been less than impressive since leaving his home in Pride back in 2006. With a win over dos Santos, Cro Cop puts himself back on the map. Cro Cop's last opponent, Mustapha al Turk (6-5), may find himself with another shot in the UFC after suffering eye gouges at the hands of Filipovic, but time will tell when that matchup is made, as nothing is scheduled at the moment.
The only other fighter on the roster that hasn't fought in a while without upcoming fights is Neil Grove (7-2), who lost his debut in February to natural light heavyweight Mike Ciesnoleviscz. Of course, there's also Mike Wessel (6-1) who lost his debut to Antoni Hardonk (8-5) at UFC 92. But Wessel is a member of the next season of The Ultimate Fighter, so we won't count him. As for Hardonk, the hard-hitting Dutchman with some of the best leg kicks in the division will face another man with some brutal low kicks in Pat Barry (4-1) at UFC 104. Barry lost in his last fight to Tim Hague and may have had his relative weakness on the mat exposed. His ground game will hardly be tested against Hardonk, however, as both men prefer to stand and strike (with their feet.)
Now, while there may be a dearth of heavyweight fights at UFC 101, as I've mentioned there are plenty on the horizon. Just looking at UFC 102, you've got the main event between Couture and Nogueira for starters. Then you've got Justin McCully (9-4-2) taking on highly-touted submission expert Mike Russow (11-1) in Russow's UFC debut. You may never have heard of Russow, but he's one to keep an eye on. He's got eight wins by submission, and he's gone the distance all of one time (in his MMA debut.) Tito Ortiz protégé McCully hasn't exactly set the world on fire in his two UFC wins, taking a pair of rather plodding decisions. Look for Russow to take it to the ground early and make his debut count. Also at UFC 102, one of my personal favorite fighters, Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4), who could be champion if he could get his cardio under control, will fight Octagon newcomer Chris Tuchscherer (17-1). I don't know much about Tuchscherer, but he's a very big dude who trains with Minnesota Martial Arts Academy with Brock Lesnar and other notables, and his only loss came at the punchline of an MMA event, the infamous YAMMA Pitfighting show in April of last year. This will definitely be one to watch, because when you're talking about two guys who could not make the cut to light heavy, that's these two monsters. And finally, wrapping up our UFC 102 heavyweight lineup, we've got Tim Hague returning to action against another UFC newcomer in Todd Duffee (4-0). While Duffee only has four fights, he's no joke. In his last fight, he became the first man to stop UFC vet Assuerio Silva with strikes since 1999 (when he lost due to a cut stoppage.) Silva had also gone to a decision with slugger Cheick Kongo. So in this one event, we've got some very intriguing young fighters who could really make names for themselves.
We've already talked about Cro Cop-dos Santos at UFC 103, not to mention Hardonk-Barry and the huge Carwin-Velasquez fight at UFC 104. But there's one more fight at 104 that holds interest for a few reasons. At that event, Ben Rothwell (30-6) makes his long-awaited UFC debut against Chase Gormley (6-0). This fight, in case you just started following MMA in the last 10 minutes or so, was supposed to go down at Affliction's "Trilogy" event before Josh Barnett 24-5) went and tested positive for steroids—again—which caused the cancellation of the event and the folding of the fight-promoting arm of the apparel company. Luckily for the fighters, they'll be afforded the opportunity to meet on a much larger stage (should the fight make the main broadcast, which is an unknown at this point.)
Heavyweight happens to be a division with considerable talent outside of the UFC. Many of the fighters in the division are Octagon veterans, but many have never set foot inside the UFC's cage. The greatest of them all, obviously, is Fedor Emelianenko (30-1), who recently signed a Strikeforce deal through MMA's shadiest organization (and that's saying something,) M-1. The well-publicized and much discussed roster in Strikeforce is headed up by its current champion (who hasn't fought with them since 2007) Alistair Overeem (29-11), who poses a semblance of threat to "The Last Emperor", but has been inconsistent to put it mildly over the last few years. Also included with the San Jose-based organization are Fabricio Werdum (11-4-1), who was set to get a title fight with Overeem before the champion backed out due to a hand injury, and his newly-minted opponent for next week's card, the one-and-only Mike Kyle (12-6-1), whose reputation as a dirty fighter precedes him. Kyle already played spoiler to one of Strikeforce's golden boys, Rafael Cavalcante, during their June event when he knocked "Feijao" out in the second round. That fight took place at light heavyweight. Should he do the same to Werdum, it's highly doubtful that we'll see Werdum among the ranks of Strikeforce heavyweights. (Which reminds me, why wouldn't Fedor get an immediate title shot when Werdum, who hadn't fought in Strikeforce and was coming off of a loss in his last fight, was scheduled to fight for the belt? I'm just sayin.)
Of course, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention up-and-comer Brett Rogers (10-0), whose destruction of the suddenly-reeling, former number two heavyweight in the world Andrei Arlovski puts him in a great position within the thin ranks of the Strikeforce heavyweight division. He's on the short list of those who will likely get a shot at Fedor during his three-fight deal. Other non-UFC fighters of note include future hot property Bobby Lashley (4-0), pituitary-enabled Antonio Silva (12-1), who will fight with Sengoku, possibly against Josh Barnett and probably for that organization's heavyweight title, later this year. We've also got the suddenly homeless Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1), whose reputation for trouble could keep him out of the UFC unless he can convince the brass that he'd be a good boy. Another option for Strikeforce is the hard-hitting Paul Buentello (27-10), who would probably be best served as a gatekeeper in the UFC with his entertaining style. Dave Herman is pretty much the only heavyweight of note to have fought in the Bellator Fighting Championships this year, so his contract status with that organization, along with Sengoku, is one that has to be of interest. And speaking of Sengoku, they do have one more heavyweight that I'm aware of in up-and-comer Roger Gracie (2-0), who would likely be completely unknown were it not for his last name. Oh, and don't forget Tim Sylvia (24-6), who has gone from UFC Heavyweight Champion to MMA punchline following his one punch knockout loss to boxing has-been and MMA never-will-be Roy Mercer.
Alright, folks. I believe that's about it. I don't know about you, but these things take the energy out of me. I shudder to think what it's going to be like breaking down the incredibly deep lightweight division after the title is sorted out after Penn-Florian.
History of the UFC Heavyweight Title
*Bold indicates title changing hands
2/7/97 – M. Coleman def. D. Severn (Submission) 7/27/97 – M. Smith def. M. Coleman (Decision)
10/17/97 – M. Smith def. D. Abbott (Submission due to strikes) 12/21/97 – R. Couture def. M. Smith (Decision)
*Couture vacates title* 5/7/99 – B. Rutten def. K. Randleman (Decision)
*Rutten Retires* 11/19/99 – K. Randleman def. P. Williams (Decision)
6/9/00 – K. Randleman def. P. Rizzo (Decision) 11/17/00 – R. Couture def. K. Randleman (TKO)
5/4/01 – R. Couture def. P. Rizzo (Decision)
11/2/01 – R. Couture def. P. Rizzo (TKO) 3/22/02 – J. Barnett def. R. Couture (TKO)
*Barnett vacates title* 9/27/02 – R. Rodriguez def. R. Couture (Submission due to strikes) 2/28/03 – T. Sylvia def. R. Rodriguez (TKO)
9/26/03 – T. Sylvia def. G. McGee (TKO)
*Sylvia vacates title* 6/19/04 – F. Mir def. T. Sylvia (Submission)
*Mir stripped due to inactivity (Motorcycle accident)* 2/5/05 – A. Arlovski def. T. Sylvia (Submission)
6/4/05 – A. Arlovski def. J. Eilers (TKO)
10/7/05 – A. Arlovski def. P. Buentello (TKO) 4/15/06 – T. Sylvia def. A. Arlovski (TKO)
7/8/06 – T. Sylvia def. A. Arlovski (TKO)
11/18/06 – T. Sylvia def. J. Monson (Decision) 3/3/07 – R. Couture def. T. Sylvia (Decision)
8/25/07 – R. Couture def. G. Gonzaga (TKO) 2/2/08 – A. Nogueira def. T. Sylvia (Submission) – Interim Title due to Couture's temporary UFC departure 11/15/08 – B. Lesnar def. R. Couture (TKO) 12/27/08 – F. Mir def. A. Nogueira (TKO) – Interim
7/11/09 – B. Lesnar def. F. Mir (TKO)
Longest Title Reign: Randy Couture – 490 days
Most Title Defenses: Randy Couture/Andre Arlovski/Tim Sylvia (2 each)
Current Title Reign: Brock Lesnar (266 days, 1 defense)
Definitions/Parameters:
The Champ: Self-explanatory
The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category.
A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition.
Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential.
On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them.
The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact.
DON'T GO YET... WE SUGGEST THESE MMATORCH ARTICLES, TOO!
Jamie Penick, editor-in-chief
(mmatorcheditor@gmail.com)
STAFF COLUMNISTS: Shawn Ennis - Jason Amadi
Frank Hyden - Rich Hansen
Chris Park - Matt Pelkey
Interested in joining MMATorch's writing team? Send idea for a theme to your column (for Specialist section) or area of interest (i.e. TV Reporter) along with a sample of writing to mmatorch@gmail.com.
