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From MMATorch.com Ennis' Take
*Egregious Omission Alert* In my previous Welterweight column, I completely neglected to mention Dan Hornbuckle, who is coming off of a successful run in Sengoku and who will now focus on the Bellator welterweight tournament this year. Hornbuckle has looked excellent in his last few fights and could really put his mark on the division and get some of the bigger organizations’ attention with a good performance in Bellator’s second season. Be on the lookout for him. For over three years, the middleweight division has belonged to Anderson Silva. No one has come close to taking him out. He’s lost only one round in his title reign, and he decimated Dan Henderson in punishment for taking that round. Is there anyone who can take Silva’s belt away? We’ll find out in April if he can hold on for another fight, and there’s already a new number one contender lined up after that, so let’s have a look at the 185 pound division to see what’s on the horizon. THE CHAMP Anderson Silva (25-4): By the time Anderson Silva fights Vitor Belfort at UFC 112, it will have been a week shy of one year since the dominant champion of the middleweight division has defended his title. In the meantime, though, Silva laid waste to a former light heavyweight champion in Forrest Griffin at UFC 101. He clowned Griffin within the first round and made him literally run away after the fight. It’s hard to say who can match up with Silva, seeing as how no one has come up with a formula for beating him. His next two opponents (should he get past the first) excel in striking and grappling respectively, though neither boasts an all-around game on the level of Silva. Only time will tell if one of them is stronger in any aspect to hand Silva his first non-DQ defeat in over five years. THE CONTENDERS VItor Belfort (19-8): When Vitor Belfort shows up on the MMA radar as he has multiple times in his up-and-down career, talk usually centers around whether it’s the “Old Vitor” making a comeback. That is to say, is it the Belfort that we saw in 1996-97, who blitzed his way through six of his first seven fights with first round knockout victories, or is it the tentative, out of shape fighter that looks lost with mid-level competition. Well, let’s look at it this way: Belfort is on the longest win streak of his career (five straight) against opponents who all have winning records – a combined 93-28. So there is little question remaining that Belfort is “back.” He hasn’t lost yet at middleweight, and we’ll see how far Belfort has truly come when he fights next, probably toward the end of the year (Belfort was scheduled to face Anderson Silva for the middleweight title, but had to pull out due to a shoulder injury that will keep him sidelined for a while.) It remains to be seen whether he’ll have to take another fight before fighting Silva or whether he’ll be vaulted back into contention immediately. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1): Even with the quick submission loss to Demian Maia on his record, it’s hard to argue against Sonnen getting a title shot with his dismantling of Nate Marquardt at UFC 109. While he hasn’t shown the finishing prowess desirable in a top contender (especially those slated to face Anderson Silva,) Sonnen has shown suffocating top control in his three victories over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami, and Marquardt. These were fights where his opponents knew that was his best chance to win, and it happened anyway. Whether Silva, Belfort, Maia, or whoever will be able to stop Sonnen’s trek toward the title will depend on their wrestling defense. Demian Maia (12-1): *Note: I originally had Maia in the “Step or Two Away” category before the announcement that he would fight Anderson Silva at UFC 112, but with the uncertainty at the top of the division right now, I’ve eliminated that category for this time.* Maia fought the way he had to against Dan Miller at UFC 109, and it’s to his credit that he ended up winning the fight with a smart, if not overpowering, striking game. Maia’s bread and butter is obviously submissions, but from time to time you’re going to run up against guys that you can’t take down or get in a position to submit them. That’s when you’ve got to have more than one dimension to your offense, and that’s where Maia showed the beginnings of some versatility. I’d like to see Maia take on someone who excels in striking next – but also someone that’s not going to hand him a submission win. I had originally thought that a good opponent would be the loser of Silva-Belfort, but as it happens, Maia will face someone with just that criteria: Anderson Silva. Make no mistake – this is a huge mismatch in Silva’s favor, even with Maia’s ground acumen. We can only hope that Silva doesn’t come in with the same gameplan he had against Thales Leites, another ground specialist. UP AND COMERS Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, 2 NC): It’s weird to have a guy this renowned in other parts of the world as an up and comer, but that’s just what he is in the UFC. After seeing him against Alan Belcher at UFC 100, my question is whether he’s big enough for middleweight. Even though he won the fight against a much larger Belcher, I don’t know that I like his chances against elite-level 185 pounders. Word on the street is that Akiyama will face the winner of Wanderlei Silva-Michael Bisping, which is a good litmus test for him. Akiyama is good, no doubt, but it will remain to be seen whether he has what it takes to hang at the top of the division, or whether it suits him or not to make the move to 170. Mark Munoz (7-1): With his only loss coming to Matt Hamill at light heavyweight (on short notice, to boot,) Munoz showed everyone why he belongs at middleweight when he destroyed Ryan Jensen at UFC 108. Munoz is strong on the feet and has shown good quickness at his natural weight. He’ll get a test to see where he fits in when he fights Kendall Grove at UFC 112. This is a great fight that could test Munoz on the ground, and it will surely tell us how he deals with a taller fighter in the lanky Grove. Gerald Harris (14-2): Gerald Harris was a part of season eight of TUF, and he didn’t appear on the finale of the show. Rather than take this as a slight, Harris used it as motivation to get to a point where he belonged in the UFC. He rattled off six straight wins between July of 2008 and September of 2009, and then called Dana White on a radio show to tell the UFC President of his recent successes. This got Harris a contract with the UFC, and he showed why he deserved it when he knocked out John Salter at UFC Fight Night 20 in January. Harris isn’t at the top of the heap yet, but he has shown the ability and willingness to improve, and he’ll be one to watch this year. His next fight will come against undefeated prospect Mario Miranda at UFC Fight Night 21. Goran Reljic (8-0): Reljic hasn’t fought since his UFC debut in May of 2008, where he crushed Wilson Gouveia as a light heavyweight. The Croatian since suffered a career-threatening back injury that forced him off of the UFC 90 card in which he would have faced Thales Leites in his middleweight debut. Instead, Reljic will fight CB Dollaway in his return to the Octagon at UFC 110. Reljic has a ton of potential and could be one to surprise people this year if he can shake off the rust from such a long layoff. ON THE REBOUND Nate Marquardt (29-9-2): Marquardt suffered a devastating setback by losing in dominating fashion to Chael Sonnen at UFC 109. What makes it even worse for the multi-time King of Pancrase is that he allowed Sonnen to win using the only method of victory he had. It could be argued that Marquardt, barring injury, could have taken Vitor Belfort’s spot had he been able to best Sonnen, which has got to make it that much more difficult for him to swallow this loss. The good news for Marquardt is that it really shouldn’t take him that long to get back into contention. If recent history is an indicator, he only fights top competition. If he continues to beat them, he’ll give the UFC no choice but to give him another title shot. Patrick Cote (13-5): Cote responded to an unlikely run at Anderson Silva by injuring his knee in his fight with the champ. What was an unfortunate circumstance turned into a bit of a rallying cry for Cote, as he would claim later that he was winning the fight and would have been able to win had the fight gone on. Unfortunately for Cote, “winning” is different from “not being knocked out,” and the outcome he saw was very likely not in the cards. It will remain to be seen if Cote can run through the considerably tougher ranks now for another shot at the Middleweight Title. He’ll start with a stiff test against Alan Belcher at UFC 113. THE POOL The middleweight pool is not as overwhelmingly filled with talent as some of the others, but there are definitely a few names of note to watch. Let’s start with those who have fights coming up soon. First, we’ve got the aforementioned Goran Reljic taking on C.B. Dollaway (9-2) at UFC 110. Dollaway has been up-and-down since his TUF stint, and he won’t get a break against the Croatian here. While he’s got a solid wrestling pedigree, he tends to give up submissions and leave himself open for damage. That’s a recipe for disaster against Reljic. Also coming at UFC 110, we’ve got Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) taking on Michael Bisping (18-2) in a fight that has some big implications at middleweight. Silva desperately needs a win after going 1-4 in his last five fights. Even with that being the case, this is a new slate for the legendary former Pride Light Heavyweight Champion. This will be his middleweight debut, and Bisping, still haunted by his knockout loss against Dan Henderson (25-7), looks to be very hungry for this one. One of the fighters I could have mentioned in the Up & Comers category was Thomas Drwal (17-2-1). Drwal entered the UFC as a light heavyweight and was promptly thrashed by Thiago Silva at UFC 75. He came back a year and a half later and has since won three straight by stoppage, most recently choking out Drew McFedries (8-6) at UFC 103. Drwal will face his stiffest test thus far at 185 when he fights Rousimar Palhares (10-2) at UFC 111. A win could put either fighter a big fight or two away from title contention. Palhares, for his part, took a step down in competition since being handled by Dan Henderson, an opponent for whom he was simply not yet ready, and he has not lost since. His most recent victim, Lucio Linhares (13-5), who may have had the most lackadaisical tapout to a leglock that I’ve seen, will fight Yushin Okami (23-5) at UFC Fight Night 21 in March. Okami will look to bounce back from being handled by Chael Sonnen back in October. The loss to Sonnen could light a fire under the perennial middleweight contender, and it would be trouble for the rest of the division if Okami starts going after finishes. The twenty-first installment of the Fight Night series will also play host to a pair of emotional crowd favorites when Nate Quarry (12-3) fights Jorge Rivera (17-7). Rivera continues to defy the odds, going 3-2 in his last five despite talking about retiring in the not too distant past. Most recently, he sent Rob Kimmons down to welterweight with a TKO victory at UFC 104. Quarry is also coming off of a win, his coming against Tim Credeur (12-3) at Fight Night 19. Pending the outcomes of their next fights, Quarry, Credeur and Rivera are three guys that could make some unexpected noise in the division in the coming months. Maybe not title-contention-level noise, but certainly something in the upper-middle tier of the division. Another guy that could fit into that category is Credeur’s next opponent, Tom Lawlor (6-2). Lawlor surprised a lot of people with his win over C.B. Dollaway coming off of their season on TUF, and he came pretty close to stopping Aaron Simpson (7-0) in their recent bout. The loss to Simpson may have been a good thing for Lawlor, and we’ll see how he responds in his fight with Credeur. As for Simpson, he’ll take on a resurgent Chris Leben (19-6) at UFC 114. I say “resurgent” a bit sarcastically, as that’s how the UFC is playing his last win. Though I wouldn’t exactly say that a win for a guy with 25 fights over a still-very-green-and-one-dimensional Jay Silva (5-3) is much to write home about. Kendall Grove (11-6), whom we mentioned is fighting Mark Munoz at UFC 112, is also coming off of a win over a green opponent in the now-former UFC fighter Jake Rosholt (6-2). Grove had his struggles last year even in going 2-1 when he lost a lackluster decision to the soon-debuting-at-welterweight Ricardo Almeida at UFC 101. A rebound win against Munoz is extremely important for Grove right now if he has designs on rising from the lower-middle of the pack this year. Looking to pull out of a funk as well is former Grove victim Alan Belcher (15-6). Belcher has been on the rise since his loss to Jason Day at UFC 83 with big wins over Denis Kang (32-12-1) and Wilson Gouveia (12-7), neither of whom are in the UFC at the moment, but both of whom are very stout opponents. His loss in between to Yoshihiro Akiyama was a controversial decision at UFC 100 which many thought he won. Belcher will take on former title contender Patrick Cote in his first fight since injuring his knee against Anderson Silva in October of 2008. There are only a couple more fighters with scheduled fights on the way, and both feature fighters jockeying for position toward the middle of the pack. Former light heavyweights Alessio Sakara (14-7) meets the perpetually injured James Irvin (14-5), who will be making his middleweight debut. Perhaps the drop in weight will serve as a cure for the injury bug that has plagued him over the past couple of years at 205. That fight should prove to be a slugfest that doesn’t get out of round one. In addition, Jesse Forbes (11-4), coming off of an impressive performance against Nick Catone (8-2), will take on Ryan Jensen (14-6) at UFC 114. Jensen is 1-2 in his current UFC stint so far and will probably need a win to stay with the promotion. Forbes, meanwhile, will look to prove he belongs after picking up four straight first-round stoppage wins following his time on TUF. Out in the rest of the pool, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag. Dan Miller (11-3) showed enormous promise when brought into the UFC. He had suffocating top control and a great wrestling game to get him in that position. But one-sided losses to Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia have dropped his stock a bit. I’d like to see him in the Octagon with a guy like Ed Herman (15-8) next. Herman was injured in his last fight against Aaron Simpson in August, and it hasn’t been publicized when he plans to return to action, but Miller would be a suitable first opponent. Really the only guys left are people who are struggling to find their place in the UFC. You’ve got Steve Steinbeiss (4-3), who is 0-1 (and 0-1 in the WEC, which casts doubt on his immediate return,) Drew McFedries (8-6), who, despite his crowd-pleasing explosive style has yet to string together two straight UFC wins, and John Salter (4-1), who just made his UFC debut on short notice against Gerald Harris. We don’t know a whole lot about him yet, but guys who lose on short notice are usually given another shot. So with that being said, let’s take a peek outside the UFC and see what’s going on there. The most obvious non-UFC high-caliber middleweight is Dan Henderson (25-7). Henderson had a gripe that he didn’t get a title shot after he obliterated Michael Bisping into unconsciousness, so he jumped ship to Strikeforce, who has a few middleweights, but none that will give Henderson much of a test. For the record, and since I’ve got time, let’s look at Henderson’s gripe: Since he lost to Anderson Silva at UFC 82, he beat Rousimar Palhares (who is way too green for Henderson,) won a very close split decision over Rich Franklin at light heavyweight (which I had Franklin winning,) and knocked out Michael Bisping in Bisping’s first real test at middleweight. Is it so much to ask to fight Nate Marquardt in a title eliminator in what would be a great fight? I don’t think so. But I guess that’s just me. Anyway, moving on. If we look at Strikeforce’s middleweight roster, it’s pretty thin. You’ve got the middleweight champion, Jake Shields (24-4-1), who has won 13 straight but is a natural welterweight. You’ve got Robbie Lawler (17-5), who wants out of Strikeforce so bad he can taste it. There’s Scott Smith (17-6), who puts on a fantastic show and has some great comeback wins, but will not be a top contender any time soon. Cung Le (6-1) is barely worth mentioning given his age and prolonged stretches of inactivity, but he’s a good guy to have for a San Jose homebase. Melvin Manhoef (24-7-1), who is one of my personal favorite fighters, made his Strikeforce debut not too long ago but is too one-dimensional at this point to make much noise on the big stage. He could be someone that could give Henderson a fight for a round or so. Then you’ve got Karl Amoussou (11-2), an M-1 prospect who will fight Trevor Prangley (22-5) at the next Challengers event. That’s pretty much all there is to speak of in Strikeforce. If you want a guy to keep your eye on, check out Sengoku. Mahmed Khalidov (20-3-1) has been a one-man wrecking crew lately, most recently taking out the red-hot Jorge Santiago (21-8) in one of Japan’s maddening non-title fights. Khalidov is 17-0-1 in his last 18 fights, and he’ll rematch Santiago (for the belt this time) at Sengoku’s next event in March. Also on that same card will be Kazuo Misaki (22-10-2) who could go on a streak at any time. Other than that, Denis Kang (32-12-1) is still around after being cut by the UFC, and he’s apparently signed with Canadian organization W1 MMA. MFC also has a few former-UFC middleweights in Thales Leites (15-3), Dean Lister (11-7), and Wilson Gouveia (12-7), though Gouveia will likely move back to light heavyweight. So that’s about it for the 185-pounders. In the meantime, if you think I missed anyone, or if you've got anything else to say, let me know in the comments. Or if you like, shoot me an email at ennistorch(at)gmail(dot)com. Or I just got on to Twitter a few weeks ago, where I'll surely be talking about MMA and other general awesomeness. You can check me out there - @shawnennis. History of the UFC Middleweight Title *Bold indicates title changing hands 9/28/01 – D. Menne def. G. Castillo (Decision) 1/11/02 – M. Bustamante def. D. Menne (TKO) 5/10/02 – M. Bustamante def. M. Lindland (Submission) *Bustamante vacates the title when he leaves the UFC for PRIDE* 2/5/05 – E. Tanner def. D. Terrell (TKO) 6/4/05 – R. Franklin def. E. Tanner (TKO) 11/9/05 – R. Franklin def. N. Quarry (KO) 3/4/06 – R. Franklin def. D. Loiseau (Decision) 10/14/06 – A. Silva def. R. Franklin (TKO) 2/3/07 – A. Silva def. T. Lutter (Submission) *Non-title fight due to Lutter missing weight 7/7/07 – A. Silva def. N. Marquardt (TKO) 10/20/07 – A. Silva def. R. Franklin (TKO) 3/1/08 – A. Silva def. D. Henderson (Submission) 10/25/08 – A. Silva def. P. Cote (TKO) 4/18/09 – A. Silva def. T. Leites (Decision) Longest Title Reign: Anderson Silva (1220 and counting) Most Consecutive Defenses: Anderson Silva (5) Current Reign: Anderson Silva (1220 Days, 5 Defenses) Definitions/Parameters: The Champ: Self-explanatory The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category. A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition. Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential. On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them. The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact. === Shawn Ennis has been an MMATorch columnist from day one and continues to write his popular in-depth "Lay of the Land" columns periodically one division at a time. He also participates in MMATorch Roundtable Topics and post-PPV Audio Shows. © Copyright by MMATorch.com |
