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Opinion & Analysis
PELKEY: Full UFN Live preview including predictions
By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch Columnist
Apr 1, 2008, 21:37
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I don't know about you, but I've been excited for this day for months.
I may be in the minority on this by now, but I still love The Ultimate
Fighter. I get pumped for the start of a new season, because if nothing
else, we know we're about to get an influx of new stars. Add to that
the fact its a middleweight season (the thinnest division by far in the
UFC), and the new format calls for the fighters to actually FIGHT their
way into the house, and it should be a very good season.
But that's not what I'm so excited about. Leading in to TUF is a new
Ultimate Fight Night Live. And folks, the card is loaded. Forgive my
hyperbole, but I'll say its the best non-ppv card the UFC has ever put
together. From top to bottom (and that's a long way with twelve fights
on the card), there's not a bad fight. There's a reason to want to
watch each one. What are those reasons? I thought you'd never ask.....
1- Tommy Speer vs. Anthony Johnson
Reason to watch: Tommy Speer. He looked like a young (more like-able)
Matt Hughes on last season of TUF, but his heart didn't seem totally in
it after he was dismantled by a much smaller Mac Danzig in the finale.
This fight would seem to be designed to get Speer a win, so they can
capitalize on the name value he still has. Speer will try to take it to
the ground and pound Johnson out. Seriously, that's the whole gameplan.
Prediction: Speer by TKO in round 2
2- George Sotiropoulos vs. Roman Mitichyan
Reason to watch: Potential. Sotiropoulos was considered one of the
strong favorites to win last season's show before he was clubbed by
Tommy Speer. I still don't know that much about Mitichyan. He was the
guy who hurt himself on the first episode and we never saw him again.
Joe Silva must be a fan because he keeps signing him to fight. George
could really be a force in the welterweight division if he keeps
improving. This is another fight that, on paper at least, looks to be
clearly designed to showcase one fighter. That fighter is Sotiropoulos.
Prediction: Sotiropoulos by submission in round 1
3- Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Reason to watch: Um...because Clay Guida is involved? That alone gives
this fight a fifty-fifty shot of being fight of the night. Guida will
be Guida, and Schiavo will do his best to keep up. He won't be able to,
but I still haven't seen Guida finish a fight. He won't end that streak
tonight.
Prediction: Guida by decision
4- Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
Reason to watch: So you can daydream about what could've been. Don't
get me wrong, I love, LOVE Nate Diaz, but if Manny's shoulder hadn't
popped out we'd be talking about him as the Season 5 winner. I propose
after Manny and Guida win their fights tonight, they're immediately
signed to a contract to fight each other. The irresistible force meets
the immovable object, 155 style!
Prediction: Gamburyan by submission in round 1
5- Marcus Aurelio vs. Ryan Roberts
Reason to watch: So you can daydream about what could've been, part
deux. No disrespect to Ryan Roberts, but he's replacing Spencer Fischer
in this fight. Aurelio vs. Fisher = a possible lightweight classic.
Aurelio vs. Roberts = an apology to Aurelio for the shabby treatment
he's gotten since he signed with the UFC. His addition
could've/should've been treated like at least a semi-big deal, but he
can't even make the main card of a free show? Lame.
Prediction: Aurelio by submission in round 2
6- Din Thomas vs. Josh Neer
Reason to watch: Because Din Thomas is slick as a mother-f***er. That's
what he said about himself after his fantastic armbar on Jeremy
Stephens several months back. Wanna know how good this card is: this
fight isn't even on the televised portion. Craziness. I like both of
these fighters, but Thomas is miles better than he's given credit for.
People seem to have forgotten about him after he hurt his knee in the
Florian fight. Big mistake.
Prediction: Thomas by submission in round 2
7- Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Reason to watch: It's a chance to watch the guy who'll eventually take
the belt off BJ Penn. Yeah I said it. Edgar is the future. Actually
these guys are fairly similar fighters. Both are very strong,
fast-paced wrestlers. The difference? Edgar is significantly farther
along in his development. Oh, and he's the better wrestler. Bad recipe
for Maynard. This is the swing bout, so keep your fingers crossed for
some early finishes. I want to see this one
Prediction: Edgar by decision
8- Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Reason to watch: Because somebody is gonna get knocked out. If that's
your kinda thing, this is the fight for you. After his fight with
Thiago Silva, we now know Alexander is human. Both guys will come out
and swing til one of them can't swings no more. I have questions about
Alexander's chin. That's the difference for me.
Prediction: Irvin by KO in round 1
9- Kurt Pellegrino vs. Nate Diaz
Reason to watch: To see how Nate Diaz does with a step up in
competition. Alvin Robinson and Junior Assuncao are certainly quality
wins to start your UFC career, but Pellegrino is on a whole different
level. He's in that Din Thomas mold of being a top ten lightweight that
no one seems to notice. His striking and wrestling will give Diaz fits,
and I just don't see Diaz being able to submit him. Taking that into
consideration, if Diaz is the star he's supposed to be, this is a fight
he wins. I just don't think he's there yet.
Prediction: Pellegrino by decision
10- Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
Reason to watch: Because this fight actually got better after Stephan
Bonnar pulled out of it. I'm a big Bonnar fan, but I don't think his
style would've matched up well with Hamill. In steps Boetsch, the late
replacement sensation, and this time he actually got a month or two to
prepare. Hamill will actually try to use his wrestling skills in this
fight, but I think Boetsch is good enough to keep from getting taken
down. That's where this turns into a slugfest, and Boetsch is much
better on the feet.
Prediction: Boetsch by TKO in round 3
11- Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
Reason to watch: Because this fight is "featured fight on a
pay-per-view" quality and it isn't even the main event. Karo Parisyan
is this close (picture my thumb and fore finger really close together)
to a title shot and he's not about to get derailed. My instinct says
Parisyan doesn't have enough to finish Alves, but Spencer Fischer
submitted him. Hmmm....I'll say Karo gets in done in under the distance.
Prediction: Parisyan by TKO in round 2
12- Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
Reason to watch: Because J-Lau is gonna prove he deserves this spot.
Training with BJ Penn certainly doesn't hurt. Kenny Florian easily wins
the "most improved" award over the last couple years. He's become a
force in the lightweight division and this could be his second to last
fight before another title shot. If he wins tonight I think a number
one contender's fight with Roger Huerta could be on the horizon. I just
don't know if he's gonna win. (Pull the trigger, Matt). Ok, ok...Lauzon
pulls the upset.
Prediction: Lauzon by decision
Well that's it. Twelve fights. Free. Well about five or six will be
free. Enjoy the show! Everybody get your prediction shoes on because
I'm bringing back the prediction contests for a third incarnation for
UFC 83 on April 19th!
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