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Opinion & Analysis
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Staff Editorials
ENNIS: UFC 63 Preview - Previews and Predictions for every match on the card
By Shawn Ennis, MMATorch.com Contributor
Sep 23, 2006, 03:56
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The Undercard
David Lee vs. Tyson Griffin
I touched on both of these fighters in my previous column, so I won’t spend a lot of time giving each man’s history. Tyson has the better overall game here. Lee has sloppy strikes that he seemingly uses more as a diversion than anything else so that he can set up takedowns and go for submissions. The problem with this strategy is that Griffin has a good ground game and will be too strong for Lee to handle. Griffin may choose to thwart Lee’s takedowns and keep the fight standing, but it’s just as likely that he’ll look to end the fight by ground and pound. This is a big step up in competition for Lee, even though Griffin only has one more fight on his résumé.
Prediction: Griffin by TKO, round 1
Danny Abaddi vs. Jorge Gurgel
After Gurgel’s hard-fought decision loss to Mark Hominick at Ultimate Fight Night in June, this fight seems like a reward for him. Both times we’ve seen Danny Abaddi in the UFC (during the Ultimate Fighter season three and on the finale) he’s lost quickly and decisively. I expected him to spend some time in some other promotions and fine-tune his game before making his return to the UFC, but it looks like he's gotten another chance to prove himself. Gurgel has gotten all of his nine victories by way of submission (including four straight victories via guillotine choke in 2004 and 2005). Expect more of the same here.
Prediction: Gurgel by submission, round 1
Mario Neto vs. Eddie Sanchez
Sanchez doesn’t have much going for him in this fight. He does have good striking and a nice right hand in particular, but he’s never faced anyone close to the level of Neto. Mario is a BJJ fighter, but does have two TKOs on his record. Sanchez’ ground game is untested and likely would not stand much chance against the jiu jitsu expert. This could go late into the first round or early into the second, but probably not longer than that.
Prediction: Neto by submission, round 1
Roger Huerta vs. Jason Dent
Dent is no pushover despite his 12-6 record, but he’s fighting on short notice and little more than a month after his last fight. Roger Huerta will be fighting for the first time since April, and will be anxious to make his UFC debut after suffering an injury and being forced to pull out of UFC 61 when he was supposed to fight Hermes Franca. Roger’s sole loss came only in a tournament for the Superbrawl promotion when he had previously won two fights in that same night—and each went three rounds. Both guys will have the gas to go until the final bell, and they’ll probably almost make it that far. This will likely be a more tightly contested bout than what I’ve detailed thus far, but I’ll give the edge to Huerta.
Prediction: Huerta by TKO, round 3
The Main Card
Gabe "Godzilla" Ruediger vs. Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard
This is your classic "striker vs. grappler" match, with Guillard playing the role of striker and Ruediger being the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter. It will be a very interesting match, in that this will be Guillard’s first real test in the UFC at 155, his explosive one-punch knockout of Rick Davis notwithstanding. Ruediger is making his Octagon debut, but he’s hardly a rookie. The former WEC lightweight champion was on a nine-fight win streak until he ran into the freight train that has been Hermes Franca in 2006. Guillard is serviceable on the ground if he can slam his opponent and end up on top, but will find himself in a world of hurt if he ends up underneath "Godzilla". If the fight stays on the feet Guillard probably has an edge with his huge punching power, although Ruediger is no slouch when it comes to striking. I hope this is the first fight on the PPV, because it has the potential to be quite entertaining and set a good tone.
Prediction: Ruediger by submission, round 2
Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon vs. Jens "Little Evil" Pulver
Lauzon is being brought to the UFC for one reason, and that's to lose to Jens Pulver in devastating fashion. Though you can never count out a guy who's won three fights in one night (as Lauzon did in April of this year, with each victory coming by stoppage), there's little need to mention that Pulver is on an entirely different level than anyone Lauzon has fought before. I think we could potentially see more of Lauzon down the road, but we won't see much of him on Saturday.
Prediction: Pulver by KO, round 1
Jason Lambert vs. Rashad Evans
There are fans who have been anticipating Rashad Evans' first loss in the Octagon with every outing. Every time he's fought, they've said, "Alright. His luck's run out this time. The 'lay-n-pray' style won't work here, and [insert name] will hand him his first loss." Well, it hasn't happened yet. Evans keeps grinding out decision after decision (five straight decision victories since June of 2004.) Lambert, on the other hand, is on an eight fight win streak, with seven of them not seeing the final horn. Lambert will be relentless in this fight and press the action with Evans. This is actually a very important bout in the UFC light-heavyweight division. The winner here could see himself close to the front of the line for a title shot, behind Tito Ortiz and maybe Forrest Griffin. I think we'll see Lambert get a few shots in while they're still standing, and after Evans goes for the takedown (which he will probably have to work for), Lambert will find a dominant position and pound away on the undefeated Evans. And it will probably take a lot of that to stop Rashad, but Lambert has the chops and the gas tank to do it.
Prediction: Lambert by TKO, round 3
Mike "Quick" Swick vs. David "The Crow" Loiseau
This has got to be a huge fight for both men. It's unquestionably the biggest fight of Swick's career, and a huge test for the TUF veteran. Many thought that Joe Riggs would provide Swick with a stiff challenge, until, true to his nickname, "Quick" Swick ended the contest a little over two minutes in via guillotine choke. He'll look to prove to the doubters that the win over Riggs was no fluke. Loiseau will hope to bounce back from his one-sided decision loss to middleweight champ Rich Franklin in March. "The Crow" always shows up in shape and puts on an exciting fight. This one could definitely have some fireworks. You've seen what Swick can do with strikes, and anyone doubting Loiseau's proficiency on the feet need look no further than his devastating and beautiful dispatching of Charles McCarthy at UFC 53. A prettier spinning back kick-flying knee combo has never been landed. Look for the two to start out cautiously and feel each other out. Once they get going, though, someone will get caught and his night will end early. Loiseau hasn't been stopped due to strikes since 2001, and Swick only has one loss (via knockout to Chris Leben in early 2004) on his record. Be that all as it may, I just can't see this one going the distance.
Prediction: Swick via submission, round 2
Welterweight Title Match
Matt Hughes (c) vs. B.J. Penn
Since my prediction in an earlier column that Hughes would win by decision, I've gone back and forth with myself. To be honest, this is just a tough one to call. I think I've got it narrowed down to the two possibilities I mentioned earlier: Hughes by decision, or Penn by TKO. The problem is, how do I pick a guy who I really don't think can win by stoppage? But then again, how do I pick against a guy who controls a fight so well? We've seen Hughes bounce back from bad situation after bad situation (see: the first fight vs. Carlos Newton, the second fight with Frank Trigg, for example.) Hughes has been unbeatable since his loss to Penn two and a half years ago. And yes, Penn is so versatile, so deceptively strong…but is he motivated this time after four straight uninspired fights (of which he lost two) that went to decisions? I think Penn is inspired this time. You can tell when you listen to him that he wants to reclaim what he sees as "his" title. Penn's passion seems to have returned (or at least manifested itself again), and that could spell trouble for Hughes.
But after a lot of back-and-forth with myself, I've got to go with Hughes. He's got the track record, he's got the motivation of avenging a loss, and he loves being the top dog in the division. The only provision is that I just don't see him finishing the fight before the final horn sounds.
Prediction: Hughes by decision
So there you have it. My thoughts and predictions about UFC 63. On paper, this looks to be a solid event. There's a lot at stake for many of these fighters, and we should get to see some newcomers hungry for exposure. Hopefully this show will continue the streak of good events put on by the major promoters, with UFC 62 and PRIDE's Final Conflict being the last two really enjoyable events.
To email me, Shawn Ennis, click on my email link at our Contact Page.
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