Bring on Aretha Franklin! Get the kids around the table. Take the troublemakers out to the woodshed, it’s time for a little Respect!
UFC 74 brings MMA back to the masses after a prolonged delay. And, with the announcement of Wanderlei Silva’s signing, the UFC looks poised to charge into the fall with several great cards. And, get this, we FINALLY get a title fight with some hot sauce on it. You can listen to me and Shawn Ennis break this puppy down on the podcast or you can let your peepers do the walking. Being your former TWO-time Prediction champion, I am unafraid to give you my thoughts before anyone else. Get your picks here first. At the Torch, of course! OK, let’s get to the preview, before I lose your attention.
1) Thales Leites (11-1, 2 TKO, 7 Sub) vs. Ryan Jensen (11-1, 3 TKO, 8 Sub) – Middleweights
Both fighters bring impressive records to the Octagon. Leites is the more experienced fighter on the big stage with a 2-1 record in the UFC. He has won his last two against Pete Sell and Floyd Sword. Leites is an established jiu-jitsu practitioner with Nova Uniao in Brazil. Jensen is lesser known, but has an impressive record nonetheless. He has not been to a decision in any of his fights and has won six in a row, including a first round submission of Marlon Sims. Most of Jensen’s fights have been in the minor leagues of the Midwest, however, he must have impressed somebody to get this opportunity. With eight submissions to his credit, he likely is comfortable on the ground. The questions are: a) can he keep up with Leites and b) will he succumb to the pressure of a first cage appearance. I’m not sure about b), but a) is a tough proposition. I prefer to go with the known quantity here as I can’t really track down much on Jensen. Here’s his chance though. A win over Leites would be huge. A win by Leites keeps him on the middleweight radar. I’m going with Leites by second round submission.
2) Antoni Hardonk (5-3, 3 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Frank Mir (9-3, 1 TKO, 5 Sub) – Heavyweights
Mir is looking to regain some of his pre-2004 accident spark in this matchup with Hardonk. On paper, this looks to favor Mir heavily. This is especially true after seeing Hardonk’s surprising loss to Justin McCully back in April. In that fight, Hardonk showed little ability from the ground position as McCully sat in Hardonk’s guard and won an obvious decision. Mir, who is far more technically skilled on the ground, should give Hardonk fits if this match hits the canvas. Hardonk, for his part, is a skilled striker with heavy fists. If he can find his range, it will spell trouble for Mir. Mir is also known for rapid declines in cardio during a fight, however, I suspect that he will enter this fight well prepared after training with Team Couture. When this fight hits the mat and you can be sure that it will, Mir should be able to pass and strike or submit at will. If Hardonk can survive the barrage, he always has a puncher’s chance, but unless his ground game has vastly improved in four months, this should be another notch in Mir’s belt as he tries to get back in the title chase. I’ll take Mir in a late first round TKO.
3) Alberto Crane (8-0, 7 Sub) vs. Roger “El Matador” Huerta (18-1-1, 9 TKO, 3 Sub) – Lightweights
“Hi, Mr. Crane? This is the UFC and we’d like to you to fight in our August pay-per-view.”
“Really! Wow! That would be great! Who am I fighting?”
“Roger Huerta. You know the guy from Sports Illustrated? The guy we’re currently pimping in the lightweight division?”
“Um, Hello?… Mr. Crane?…”
So, we get some lightweight action amid the heavyweight hubbub. Huerta has been rolling like a pro bowler. He has not lost (get this) since June of 2004, when he was on his third fight of the night. The only thing I don’t understand is why he is facing another newcomer to the octagon. I would think that by now he has earned the right to face someone in the mid-card title contender range. This is taking nothing away from Crane who, after all is 8-0 with seven submissions. But, hasn’t Huerta earned a shot up the ladder? If he loses, what does that do to his push that has been going on for the last year or so? I know the UFC is based in Las Vegas, but this seems like a huge risk. Huerta is clearly the favorite and he has said that he learned from the slow start against Evans, but still, an opponent with submission skills might be dangerous for the aggressive style of Huerta. Crane has not fought since January of 2005, which tells me that he is either a late replacement or it is getting hard to find willing opponents for Mr. Huerta. In either case, I’m going with Huerta. He’s on fire. He has a ton of momentum. The Evans clearly unsettled him and I like he turned it up a notch. With Crane being inactive for over two years, I think he has a lot of ring rust to shake off and not much time to do it in. Huerta says he wants to keep it standing. I think he will. Huerta by first round TKO.
4) Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-4, 2 TKO, 9 Sub) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (21-8, 3 TKO, 11 Sub) – Lightweights
More lightweight craziness. This should be a candidate for fight of the night. Aurelio is well decorated and well traveled. This American Top Team and Pride veteran has been in the ring against some of the toughest lightweights in the world. He is only one of four three men to defeat Takanori Gomi. In fact, he lost a split decision to Gomi in his last fight back in November. Guida has been pretty well traveled himself, if not on the grandest MMA stages. He has gone 1-2 in the UFC, with tough (read: close, questionable) losses to Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin. Guida is one of the most aggressive (and therefore entertaining) fighters in any division. He puts relentless pressure on his opponent and has, apparently, unlimited reserve. Aurelio will be making his relatively unheralded UFC debut. In many circles, Aurelio is considered to be a top ten lightweight (not at the Torch, though!). This should be a dandy fight and should give us a good look at how good Guida is. Pride fighters have been notoriously unsuccessful in their UFC debut. Counting that fact and the pressure that Guida brings to bear, I am going with Guida for this fight. In any case, this should be a very action-packed back and forth battle. Ultimately, I see Guida finally winning a close, but unanimous, decision.
5) Renato “Babalu” Sobral (27-7, 2 TKO, 14 Sub) vs. David Heath (7-1, 3 TKO, 3 Sub) – Light Heavyweights
What can you say about Sobral? The guy has fought nearly everybody worth fighting in modern MMA. He has some problems against the elite in his career, but his activity has really slowed down in the last 2 years. Back to back KO losses to Chuck Liddell and then Jason Lambert have not helped him at all. Looking at his career, one gets the sense that Sobral is an “old” 32. He has a lot of miles. The second loss to Liddell (in which he was a headliner) may not have been surprising. The loss to Lambert was an eye-opener. Coming off an arrest in July, one also has to wonder where he stands mentally for this fight. Heath, on the other hand, is 31, but with far less apparent wear and tear. He has a mixed style and was undefeated before losing a decision to Ryoto Machida in April. This is a make or break fight for Sobral. Three straight losses doesn’t look good on anybody. For heath, this is a chance to stay in the big show. I don’t like picking fighters after back to back losses, especially when they’ve been stopped both times. Heath should come out on the offensive and make Sobral work to keep pace. Sobral’s training is legendary, but Heath has looked strong in his previous outings. This one could go the distance, but I have a feeling Heath is going to prevail eventually by strikes late in the third round. I’ll go with that. Mark it down.
6) Patrick “The Predator” Cote (10-4, 4 TKO, 3 Sub) vs. Kendall “Da Spyda” Grove (8-3, 1 TKO, 6 Sub) – Middleweights
Anybody (both of you) who has listened to the podcasts knows that I am a big fan of Grove. Freakishly tall for this division, he presents all sorts of problems for his opponents. He has improved incrementally since his UFC debut and he seems to bring out a new trick with every match. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and seemingly on the rise. Cote has had an up and down career. Possessor of some of the most-feared elbows in the game and a renowned striker, Cote has hung with some of the tougher names in MMA. He does seem to have a blind spot in the UFC though as his 1-4 record would attest. His only win, however, was his last UFC fight against Scott Smith. It wasn’t the most exciting battle in the world, but a win is a win. Cote will need to find something special to find a way to beat Grove. He is at a distinct reach advantage and Grove’s ground and pound gets better with every fight. This is a big spot for Grove to shine over a name in the division. I think he will. Let’s go with Grove in the first round in a “statement” TKO.
7) Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (27-7, 6 TKO, 12 Sub) vs. Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino (10-2, 1 TKO, 8 Sub) – Lightweights
More lightweight madness! This should be one frenetic paced match. Pellegrino fights as if his hair is on fire and Stevenson has loads of experience for a 25 year old fighter. Pellegrino has won his last two UFC bouts including an exciting win over Nate Mohr back in April. Fighting on the same card, Stevenson dispatched Melvin Guillard in almost bizarrely easy fashion. At this point in their careers, Stevenson is probably the more refined fighter, but Pellegrino has incredible intensity. This should be a dynamite fight. Neither fighter goes to decision too much anymore (Stevenson in two of his last thirteen, Pellegrino only once ever). Despite what I said on the podcast, I have to reconsider. I still like Stevenson to win by submission as I think he’ll catch Pellegrino making a mistake in his aggressive style. However, I don’t think it’ll go the distance, but it’ll be close. I’ll go with Stevenson in the third by submission after two rounds of excellent action.
8) Josh “Kos” Koscheck (9-1, 1 TKO, 4 Sub) vs. Georges “Rush” St. Pierre (13-2, 6 TKO, 4 Sub) – Welterweights
Y’know, I can’t say I enjoyed Koscheck’s in-ring performance during his victory against Diego Sanchez. BUT, I marked out for his post-fight nonsense, despite my better judgment. Personality is great to have. I just wish he would have backed it up better in the fight. Such is life, however, and now, he gets to be the first guy to get in St. Pierre’s way back to the title. Nothing like getting rewarded, eh? Koscheck, however, is nothing if not confident, and he plans on winning the fight. I’m not sure what his game plan is going to be, but he better be hitting on all cylinders if he wants to stand a chance. Any recent interview with St. Pierre has shown the same embarrassed, yet grim and determined visage. I do not think there is any doubt that he looked past Serra and he has paid for that mistake. The lesson has been learned though and I doubt we will see anything less than the man who was considered one of the best pound for pound in the world just four short months ago. There have been better grapplers than Koscheck who were unable to get St. Pierre down for any length of time. And, there is no question that St. Pierre is the better striker. For that matter, there are few who can rival “Rush” in the striking game. Koscheck’s passive style is not going to help him in this match. Where Sanchez could not get inside and had no answer for Koscheck’s ground skills, St. Pierre will find the range and force Koscheck to retaliate or shoot. When he does, St. Pierre will exact a toll. I think Koscheck might be able to get a takedown, but I find it unlikely that he will be able to keep St. Pierre down where so many other notable fighters have failed. This is a HUGE statement fight for St. Pierre. A loss would be unthinkable for his rise back to the top. This is equally a huge fight for Koscheck, although a loss would not be nearly as damaging. I have a hard time seeing where Koscheck wins this fight at this point in time. I don’t think he has a chance to strike with St. Pierre and I’m not sure he can implement the ground style he has used in the past, because St. Pierre is too active. I see a motivated St. Pierre coming out early, pushing the pace and striking his way to a convincing victory to assure everyone that he is, indeed, back. St. Pierre by TKO in the first round.
9) Randy “The Natural” Couture, UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION. (15-8, 6 TKO, 2 Sub) vs. Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (8-1, 3 TKO, 5 Sub) – Heavyweight Championship
And now, the main event of the evening. In what was supposed to be Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic’s coronation, we have a surprise, yet deserving, champion in Randy Couture and a shocking, yet equally deserving, challenger in Gabriel Gonzaga. And despite this, this could be the best matchup on the card. Couture is everything the UFC wants in a champion. Articulate, outgoing, a respected name in the fight world, Couture has held the banner proudly. It has been disappointing to not see more mainstream media coverage for this fight. It is, after all, the most recognizable Heavyweight title in North America. Couture is a phenomenal grappler and a physical freak at 44 years old. He outmaneuvered former champion Tim Sylvia to capture the title and he will have to do something similar to retain in this fight. Gonzaga is a menacing 6’ 4” and 240 pounds. He, also, is well-versed in fighting on the ground and jiu-jitsu, although in the UFC, he has won primarily won by strikes. Oddly enough, Gonzaga is undefeated in the UFC at 4-0, winning three by vicious KO or TKO. Equally oddly, in most sportsbooks, Gonzaga is a slight favorite. It was clear that Couture was hoping for Filipovic to emerge as the challenger as Couture’s style meshed better against “Cro Cop” than Gonzaga. However, it did not pan out that way. Gonzaga is a very good striker. He is almost underrated in that aspect of his game and I think that will be a difference for him in this fight. I do not see him sitting back to wait for Couture to shoot on him. Gonzaga was pretty aggressive against Cro Cop and I expect him to push the pace on Couture. Gonzaga is the larger and younger fighter and I would expect him to out-cardio Couture during this fight. Couture might have an edge in the clinch, but Gonzaga is much bigger and it’s hard for me to see him getting a definitive edge on the ground. It’s hard to pick against Couture, but this is a much different opponent than the passive, almost sluggish style of Sylvia. I think Gonzaga will wear down the champion on the mat and find a few shots on the feet to eventually capture the belt. No disrespect to the champion, but I’ll go with Gonzaga by TKO in the third round.
So, nine fights for your edification. I welcome, no, I encourage dissension and disputes. Please visit our message board and tell me how nuts you think I am.
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