Besides the fighters and their families, those with the most at risk at UFC 73: STACKED will be the sportsbooks and gamblers. Who do professional oddsmakers think will be winning the fights? We'll break down the official betting odds for the event, including how much money you can make on each individual fighter. UFC 73 will be held Saturday July 7, and will air on PPV.
How to Read a Line - The fighter with the greater negative number is the oddsmakers' favorite to win the match. All numbers are based on a $100 increment. A negative number means you would have to wager the amount of the negative number (in positive dollars) to net a $100 profit. A positive number means you could wager $100 to profit the amount of the positive number.
The Return on Investment (ROI) is the percentage of your bet amount that you would gain for winning.
For each fighter, I’ll rank the quality of play on them using dollar signs. If I were going to wager on a particular fighter, how much would I wager?
($) - No Bet
($$) - Small Bet
($$$) - Moderate Bet
($$$$) - Big Bet
($$$$$) - All-In
UFC 73: STACKED
Lightweight Bout
FRANK EDGAR (-250) = 40% ROI
MARK BOCEK (+190) = 190% ROI
Frank "the Answer" Edgar is 6-0, with 3 wins by decision, 2 wins by submission and 1 win by TKO. Edgar is 1-0 in the UFC, with a win over top prospect Tyson Griffin.
BIGGEST EDGAR WIN: over Tyson Griffin by decision at UFC 67 (February 2007)
Mark Bocek is 4-0, with 3 wins by submission and 1 win by TKO. Bocek is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter out of Canada, and will be making his UFC debut.
BIGGEST BOCEK WIN: over veteran fighter Kevin Manderson by submission in APEX (October 2006)
A battle of undefeated fighters. Frank Edgar was a high school and College Freestyle All-American wrestler. Edgar's strengths are wrestling and cardio. Mark Bocek is a World Cup Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and submission grappler. Bocek's strengths are grappling, takedowns and heart. Expect a grappling clinic in this one, with the strong possibility of a judges' decision. Edgar has already gotten the first-time UFC jitters out of the way, while Bocek will be featured on the big stage for the first time in his career.
EDGAR ($) Less than 1/2 return against a dangerous opponent.
BOCEK ($$$$) Near triple-up odds for jiu-jitsu versus wrestling.
Welterweight Bout
CHRIS LYTLE (-450) = 22% ROI
JASON GILLIAM (+300) = 300% ROI
Chris "Lights Out" Lytle is 22-14, with 15 wins by submission and 3 wins by TKO. Lytle has lost 13 times by decision (!) and lost once by TKO due to a cut. Lytle is an unfortunate 2-6 in the UFC, with 2 wins back in 2004 over tough guys Ronald Jhun and Tiki Ghosn. Lytle has become a gatekeeper in the UFC, with losses to -- Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan and Robbie Lawler. Lytle was a split decision away from winning The Ultimate Fighter 4.
BIGGEST LYTLE WIN: over Kazuo Misaki by decision in Pancrase (December 2001)
Jason "the Gizzard" Gilliam is 9-1, with 5 wins by (T)KO and 4 wins by submission. Gilliam's only loss was by submission at UFC 68 to Jamie Varner. Gilliam is 0-1 in the UFC.
BIGGEST GILLIAM WIN: over veteran fighter John Strawn by TKO at CFC 2 (March 2005)
Jason Gilliam has taken this fight on short notice, after both Drew Fickett and Jeff Joslin had to withdraw due to injury. This looks like a good opportunity for Chris Lytle to finally get a win in the UFC once again. Gilliam was submitted in his last UFC fight, which is Lytle's biggest strength. Lytle is also well-rounded and has good striking. Gilliam is a good wrestler whose strengths are his KO power and unorthodox fighting style. In three dozen fights, Lytle has never been stopped by anyone other than a doctor, so the likelihood of Gilliam being able to finish Lytle is not very good. Lytle has lost a ton of decisions, so that would seem to be Gilliam's only out. More likely, though, Lytle will get a long-awaited win in the octagon again.
LYTLE ($$) Less than 1/4 return, but Lytle is a solid fighter with something to prove, coming off a loss to Matt Hughes.
GILLIAM ($$) Quadruple-up odds might be worth a gamble as a shot in the dark.
Lightweight Bout
JORGE GURGEL (-225) = 44% ROI
DIEGO SARAIVA (+185) = 185% ROI
Jorge Gurgel is 10-2, with 9 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. Gurgel has lost once by submission and once by decision. Gurgel is 1-1 in the UFC, with a win over Danny Abbadi and a decision loss to Mark Hominick.
BIGGEST GURGEL WIN: over Danny Abbadi by decision at UFC 63 (September 2006)
Diego "the Octopus" Saraiva is 9-4, with 8 wins by submission and 1 win by KO. All 4 of Saraiva's losses have been by decision. Saraiva is 0-1 in the UFC, with a decision loss to Dustin Hazelett.
BIGGEST SARAIVA WIN: over Nate Ford by KO at GFC 1 (January 2007)
This fight will be the biggest test of each of their respective careers. Both guys overwhelmingly win by submission, but only Jorge Gurgel has ever been submitted. Gurgel is a very aggressive pro kickboxer and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with extremely good conditioning. Saraiva also has a black belt in BJJ. Saraiva's strengths are his confidence, experience in jiu-jitsu, and his ground game. There's a strong likelihood of a judges' decision in this one.
GURGEL ($$) Charming fighter who's been held back by injuries, fate would be wise to put Gurgel over in this one.
SARAIVA ($$) Gurgel's been submitted and hasn't beaten anyone as tough as Saraiva, so near triple-up odds might be worth a gamble.
Light Heavyweight Bout
STEPHAN BONNAR (-600) = 17% ROI
MIKE NICKELS (+400) = 400% ROI
Stephan "American Psycho" Bonnar is 9-4, with 6 wins by submission, 2 wins by decision and 1 win by TKO. Bonnar has lost 3 times by decision and once by TKO due to a cut. Bonnar is 3-3 in the UFC, with wins over Keith Jardine, James Irvin and Sam Hoger. Bonnar has lost twice to Forrest Griffin and once to Rashad Evans in the UFC. This is Bonnar's first fight since his steroids suspension. Before that, Bonnar lost his last two fights.
BIGGEST BONNAR WIN: over Keith Jardine by decision at UFC Fight Night 4 (April 2006)
Mike Nickels is 5-1, with 3 wins by submission and 2 wins by (T)KO. Nickels' only loss was by submission. Nickels is 1-0 in the UFC, with a win over Wes Combs. Nickels has currently won 3 straight fights.
BIGGEST NICKELS WIN: over Wes Combs by submission at UFC TUF 3 Finale (June 2006)
Stephan Bonnar has never been finished in a fight by anyone other than a doctor. Mike Nickels has been submitted once. Submissions are Bonnar's strength, along with his durability and strikes. In his only UFC fight, Nickels took out a strong opponent in Wes Combs. Nickels' strengths are his conditioning, size and submissions. This fight is scheduled as a dark match, so unless time permits, Bonnar will be fighting off-camera for the first time in the UFC. One would have to suspect that might have something to do with his recent steroid suspension. Undoubtedly, though, a win here and Bonnar will be back up on the main card. A win for Nickels would be huge for him, and crippling for Bonnar.
BONNAR ($) Way too slim odds to be chasing on Bonnar, who's got some octagon rust to work off.
NICKELS ($$) Payout is huge, and Nickels has potential, but it might be that Bonnar is a just bit too much for him.
Heavyweight Bout
ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA (-1000) = 10% ROI
HEATH HERRING (+600) = 600% ROI
Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira is 29-4, with 18 wins by submission, 8 wins by decision and 3 wins by (T)KO. All 4 of Nogueira's losses have been by decision. Nogueira was 17-3 in PRIDE and held the PRIDE Heavyweight Championship. Nogueira has lost twice by decision to Fedor Emelianenko, and lost split decisions to both Josh Barnett and Dan Henderson. Nogueira holds 2 wins over Heath Herring (one by submission and one by decision) and has also beaten -- Josh Barnett, Fabricio Werdum, Sergei Kharitonov, Mirko Cro Cop, Ricco Rodriguez, Dan Henderson, Semmy Schilt, Bob Sapp, Mark Coleman, Gary Goodridge, Volk Han, Kiyoshi Tamura and Jeremy Horn. Nogueira will be making his UFC debut. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Nogueira is the #2 Ranked Heavyweight in the world.
BIGGEST NOGUEIRA WIN: over Heath Herring by decision at PRIDE 17 for the newly established PRIDE Heavyweight Championship (November 2001)
Heath "the Texas Crazy Horse" Herring is 27-12, with 16 wins by submission and 7 wins by (T)KO. Herring has lost 6 times by decision, 4 times by TKO and lost twice by submission. Herring is 1-1 in the UFC, with a win over Brad Imes and loss to Jake O'Brien. Herring has lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira twice, once by submission and once by decision. In his career, Herring has also lost to Sam Greco, Mirko Cro Cop, Fedor Emelianenko, Vitor Belfort, Bobby Hoffman and Travis Fulton.
BIGGEST HERRING WIN: over veteran fighter Tom Erikson by submission at PRIDE 11 (October 2000)
Well, since this fight has already happened twice, we have a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a living legend. He's fought the best fighters in the world in PRIDE, and has only ever lost by decision. Nogueira's strengths are his stamina, great jiu-jitsu and boxing skills. Herring's strengths are his size and agility. While a Herring win would seem fitting in this year of the upsets, Nogueira is as close to untouchable as there is in MMA, and he's already beaten Herring twice in PRIDE.
NOGUEIRA ($) Umm, the last time a Nogueira was -1000 or more, Minotauro's twin brother Antonio Rogerio Nogueira lost a huge upset to Sokoudjou.
HERRING ($$) Landslide payout. Granted, Herring has lost twice to Nogueira, but maybe he learned something in the process.
Lightweight Bout
KENNY FLORIAN (-300) = 33% ROI
ALVIN ROBINSON (+240) = 240% ROI
Kenny "KenFlo" Florian is 5-3, with 4 wins by submission and 1 win by TKO. Florian has lost twice by decision (to Sean Sherk and Drew Fickett) and once by TKO (to Diego Sanchez). Florian is 4-2 in the UFC, with wins over Dokonjonosuke Mishima, Sam Stout, Kit Cope and Alex Karalexis.
BIGGEST FLORIAN WIN: over Dokonjonosuke Mishima by submission at UFC Fight Night 9 (April 2007)
Alvin "Kid" Robinson is 8-1, with all 8 wins by submission. Robinson's only loss was by TKO. Robinson will be making his UFC debut. The majority of Robinson's fights have been in Ring of Fire.
BIGGEST ROBINSON WIN: over Luke Caudillo by submission at ROF 20 (December 2005)
Kenny Florian has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has dangerous elbows. Alvin Robinson was a high school wrestler, and now trains in jiu-jitsu. Robinson sports a better record, but Florian has faced much, much tougher competition than Robinson. Florian is now a UFC veteran, while Robinson will be on the big stage for the first time in his career. This one should feature a lot of grappling. Likely, it'll be a matter of whether or not Robinson can survive to a judges' decision, or if Florian breaks him down beforehand.
FLORIAN ($) Only 1/3 return against untested opponent is a formula to beware of, in this year of the upset.
ROBINSON ($$$) Big payout, impressive record, who knows?
Light Heavyweight Bout
TITO ORTIZ (-125) = 80% ROI
RASHAD EVANS (-105) = 95% ROI
Tito "Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz is 15-5, with 8 wins by (T)KO, 5 wins by decision and 2 wins by submission. Ortiz has lost twice by (T)KO and twice by submission. Ortiz is 14-5 in the UFC, with all but one of his fights taking place in the octagon. Ortiz had been riding a 5-fight winning streak, before running into Chuck Liddell's fists for the second loss to the Iceman. All of Ortiz's losses have been to tough opponents -- Randy Couture, Frank Shamrock and Guy Mezger. Meanwhile, he's beaten some top talent, too. Ken Shamrock (3 times!), Forrest Griffin, Vitor Belfort, Patrick Cote, Vladimir Matyushenko, Evan Tanner, Yuki Kondo, Wanderlei Silva and Guy Mezger have all fallen victim to the Huntington Beach Bad Boy. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Ortiz is the #10 Ranked Light Heavyweight in the world.
BIGGEST ORTIZ WIN: over Wanderlei Silva by decision to win vacant UFC Middleweight (title now Light Heavyweight) Championship at UFC 25 (April 2000)
Rashad "Sugar" Evans is 10-0, with 5 wins by decision, 3 wins by (T)KO and 2 wins by submission (1 due to strikes). Evans is 5-0 in the UFC, with wins over Sean Salmon, Jason Lambert, Stephan Bonnar, Sam Hoger and Brad Imes. Evans has won 2 straight fights by KO. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Evans is the #9 Ranked Light Heavyweight in the world.
BIGGEST EVANS WIN: over Brad Imes by split decision to win UFC TUF 2 (November 2005)
This is one of the most heated fights of the year. There's been some serious trash-talking going on between these two archrivals. There's a lot at stake for both of these fighters, and despite being third down from the top of the card, this fight has to be considered the main draw for the card. The two title matches take precedent on the fight card, but really they are simply the cherries on top of the bloody Evans-Ortiz sundae everyone is craving. Rashad Evans' strengths are his takedowns and takedown defense. Tito Ortiz is also a good wrestler, with great conditioning and vicious ground and pound. I can't wait for this fight!
ORTIZ ($$$) This is a pick'em, so Ortiz fans place your bets...
EVANS ($$$) ...and Evans fans place your bets.
Lightweight Championship Bout
SEAN SHERK (-280) = 36% ROI
HERMES FRANCA (+220) = 220% ROI
Sean "Muscle Shark" Sherk is 31-2, with 13 wins by submission, 10 wins by decision and 8 wins by (T)KO. Sherk has lost once by TKO (to Georges St. Pierre) and once by decision (to Matt Hughes). Sherk is 4-2 in the UFC, with wins over Kenny Florian, Nick Diaz and Benji Radach. Sherk holds 2 wins over Karo Parisyan (!) and 1 win over his cousin Manvel Gamburyan. Sherk will be defending the UFC Lightweight Championship for the first time. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Sherk is the #2 Ranked Lightweight in the world.
BIGGEST SHERK WIN: over Kenny Florian by decision to win UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 64 (October 2006)
Hermes Franca is 18-5, with 11 wins by submission and 6 wins by (T)KO. Franca has lost 4 times by decision and once by KO. Franca is 5-2 in the UFC, with wins over Spencer Fisher, Jamie Varner, Joe Jordan, Caol Uno and Richard Crunkilton. Franca lost to Josh Thomson and Yves Edwards back-to-back in the UFC. Franca is currently on an 8-fight winning streak, that includes WEC wins over TUF 5 fighters Nate Diaz and Gabe Ruediger. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Franca is the #10 Ranked Lightweight in the world.
BIGGEST FRANCA WIN: over Spencer Fisher by TKO at UFC Fight Night 8 (January 2007)
Each of these veteran fighters has only ever been stopped once in their respective careers. Hermes Franca has less wins than Sherk, and a few more decision losses. Franca has been on fire lately, winning 8 in a row, but Sherk has been all but unstoppable, so this one will likely come down to a battle of wills. Sherk is an excellent wrestler who is very strong with great conditioning. Franca is a fighter who will stand and trade punches, but also has excellent groundwork with constant submission attempts. A 5-round judges' decision wouldn't be out of the ordinary, given the pedigree of these two fighters. This one has all the makings to be the sleeper fight of the night.
SHERK ($) Granted, Sherk has been near-unstoppable, but Franca is hot right now, and with only a little more than 1/3 return, there are better spots to invest.
FRANCA ($$$) More than triple-up odds for a fighter who's on a mission.
Middleweight Championship Bout
ANDERSON SILVA (-160) = 62% ROI
NATE MARQUARDT (+130) = 130% ROI
Anderson "the Spider" Silva is 18-4, with 10 wins by (T)KO, 5 wins by decision and 3 wins by submission (2 of which were due to strikes). Silva has lost twice by submission, once by decision and once by DQ. Silva is 3-0 in the UFC, with wins over Travis Lutter, Rich Franklin and Chris Leben. Silva is currently on a 4-fight winning streak. Silva holds wins over Tony Fryklund, Jorge Rivera, Lee Murray, Jeremy Horn, Carlos Newton, Roan Carneiro and Hayato Sakurai. Silva will be defending the UFC Middleweight Championship for the first time. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Silva is the #1 Ranked Middleweight in the world.
BIGGEST SILVA WIN: over Rich Franklin by TKO to win UFC Middleweight Championship at UFC 64 (October 2006)
Nate "the Great" Marquardt is 25-6, with 14 wins by submission, 7 wins by decision and 4 wins by (T)KO. Marquardt has lost 4 times by decision and twice by submission. Marquardt is 4-0 in the UFC, with wins over Dean Lister, Crafton Wallace, Joe Doerksen and Ivan Salaverry. Most of Marquardt's career was in Pancrase, where he holds 2 wins over Kazuo Misaki and 1 win over Shonie Carter. According to the latest MMATorch Top Ten Fighter Rankings, Marquardt is the #6 Ranked Middleweight in the world.
BIGGEST MARQUARDT WIN: over Dean Lister by decision at UFC Fight Night 8 (January 2007)
Anderson Silva has been at the top of his game. He's very well rounded and a phenomenal striker. The question will be whether or not Nate Marquardt learns from the Silva-Franklin fight. Rich Franklin went into his fight with Silva with a flawed gameplan. Franklin underestimated Silva's strength in the clinch, and his nose paid dearly for his brain's poor planning. In interviews, Marquardt has expressed confidence in his ability to stand-up and fight Silva, but that's been the fatal flaw of many a fighter before him. Marquardt is a well rounded fighter, but a focus on a ground attack against Silva might be the most beneficial to him. After taking care of Yushin Okami at UFC 72, Rich Franklin will be waiting in Cincinnati to take on the winner of this fight for the UFC Middleweight Championship in October at UFC 77.
SILVA ($$$) Not a bad payout considering how Silva's been slashing his way through the UFC middleweights, but can he handle Marquardt's experience and relentlessness?
MARQUARDT ($$$) Would seem to be the perfect poison for Silva. Since he's never been KO'd, and is a grappling machine, it's possible Marquardt could control the fight for 5 rounds to win a decision, or wear Silva down to capture a submission.
According to Oddsmakers
Most Favored to Win -- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Least Favored to Win -- Heath Herring
Closest Fight -- Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans
In My Humble Opinion
Best Long-Shot Bet -- Hermes Franca
Safest Bet on a Fighter Favored to Win -- Jorge Gurgel
Best Sleeper Bets -- Mark Bocek and Alvin Robinson
Worst Bet on a Fighter Favored to Win -- Stephan Bonnar
Worst Bet on a Fighter Favored to Lose -- Jason Gilliam
UFC 73 Playing with Money Wagers for the MMATorch Prediction Championship
$500 Bet on Mark Bocek
$150 Bet on Heath Herring
$150 Bet on Alvin Robinson
$200 Bet on Hermes Franca
I'm going with a max bet of $500 on Mark Bocek, who I feel has the best chance of winning out of all the underdogs. Bocek is a fighter I had hoped to see in the UFC someday, so now that's he made it, let's hope for a debut win. Next, I'm going to go with $150 each on two heavy underdogs. I like Alvin Robinson's chances better than Herring's, but this year has been so crazy, I'd almost expect Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the second ranked heavyweight in the world, to come into the UFC and lose to Herring, who's had a rough go of things since his arrival. Irregardless, I'm putting a little money on Herring, just because the payout is huge. Finally, I'm going to put my last $200 on Hermes Franca. Franca has been red-hot in lightweight competition, so it would seem fitting that he captures the UFC Lightweight Championship.
PLAYING WITH MONEY CONTEST: UFC 73 Betting Contest - Send In Your Gambling Predictions
