Saturday night marks the first pay-per-view event of 2007 for the UFC, and it also marks the first event for which MMATorch.com is holding the prediction championship.  So by association it marks the first of many times this year that I’ll be able to wipe the floor with our faithful readers and my fellow staff members.  And by the way, let me just take this opportunity to throw some major props to Randy Rowles.  He’s basically single-handedly kept the joint running for the last couple of weeks.  It’s not usual for me to be silent for this long, but I’ve had a lot going on to which I will not dedicate space on this site, which kept me from writing my normal columns and blog entries.  But now I’m back and ready to give you the preview for UFC 67.  Let’s get this ball rolling, shall we?

DIEGO SARAIVA vs. DUSTIN HAZELETT (Lightweight)

Saraiva: Diego Saraiva is a late replacement for Melvin Guillard, and he is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt.  As such, all eight of Saraiva’s victories have come by way of submission.  The grappler has three losses to his record, but all three came by decision.  And that’s pretty much all I know about Diego Saraiva.

Hazelett: We saw Dustin Hazelett in the UFC in October, when he debuted against Tony DeSouza.  Hazelett had a triangle choke sunk on DeSouza, and had it been almost any fighter other than the Peruvian, it would have ended the fight.  But DeSouza escaped and eventually submitted Hazelett via kimura in the first.  But Hazelett proved in that fight that he is for real on the ground.  Hazelett is also not shy on the feet, though his strengths lie mostly on the mat, and he owns a KO victory over Chad Reiner, who lost his UFC debut to Josh Burkman by decision last Thursday.

Breakdown: This is a matchup of two fighters who excel in grappling, so the question is whether one of them will be able to end the fight standing up before the chess game on the ground begins.  I think Hazelett has an edge in striking, and he’s good enough on the mat that Saraiva won’t be able to dominate even if it does go there.

Prediction: Hazelett by TKO in round 1.

SAM “THE ALASKAN ASSASSIN” HOGER vs. RYOTO “LYOTO” MACHIDA (Light Heavyweight)

Hoger: Sam Hoger is a Miletich fighter who was a part of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter”.  He holds a record of 2-2 in the UFC, dropping close decisions to Stephan Bonnar and most recently Rashad Evans in April of last year.  Hoger has been out of action for a while, and comes back to the Octagon to face the debuting Machida on Saturday. 

Machida: Ryoto Machida is a karate expert who holds victories over Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, and BJ Penn.  He fought Franklin at light heavyweight and Penn at heavyweight.  This will be Machida’s second fight in the US, having won an uninspiring decision over the 14-year veteran Vernon White at the first and only event held under the new WFA banner.  “Lyoto” can be explosive at times, having knocked out Franklin with a couple of brutal left hands on either end of a head kick, and he can score some thunderous takedowns, but he has also shown an inability at times to finish fights (four of his eight wins have come via decision.) 

Breakdown: Machida’s strength is in his striking and his ground and pound, while Hoger excels at submissions, so it may be a battle of wills to see whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground.  The Brazilian, however, has trained in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and his ground skills are hardly suspect.   If the fight does go to the mat, there is a potential for stalemate, which would cause the fighters to be stood up.  So while Hoger may have a slight edge in grappling, it may be nullified by Machida’s ability to defend, and on the feet there is little question that Machida will be able to get the better of the exchanges.  I think Machida will land some shots, but be unable to finish the tough Alaskan.

Prediction: Machida by Unanimous Decision

FRANK “THE ANSWER” EDGAR vs. TYSON GRIFFIN (Lightweight)

Edgar: Frank Edgar is from Toms River, New Jersey and has amassed a 5-0 record since his pro debut in October of 2005.  He is a talented wrestler who has shown some potential in his young career, scoring three first round stoppage wins before racking up two more decision victories in the Reality Fighting promotion on the East Coast.

Griffin: Tyson Griffin has been the unstoppable force in the lightweight division, having won all eight of his professional fights before the final bell.  This, of course, includes his stoppage wins over Urijah Faber (Faber’s only loss) and Duane “Bang” Ludwig.  The TKO of Faber is especially impressive, coming in Griffin’s third professional fight.  He landed a nasty straight right hand as Faber attempted a Superman punch that spelled the beginning of the end for the current WEC featherweight champ.  Griffin’s most recent victory came at UFC 63, as he decisively choked out David Lee in under two minutes.

Breakdown: Edgar is a highly touted prospect, and his performance against Griffin will go a long way to determining how soon we see him in the Octagon again.  But by no means is he expected to win.  Griffin is a monster, with great striking and brutal ground and pound.  Not having seen Edgar, I can’t speak to how dominant Griffin will be here, but I can’t see him losing.

Prediction: Griffin by TKO in round 1

TERRY MARTIN vs. JORGE “EL CONQUISTADOR” RIVERA (Middleweight)

Martin: If you’ve only seen Terry Martin in the UFC, you’ve been witness to the only two losses in his 16 fights.  The first came in devastating fashion as James Irvin landed a highlight reel flying knee in the opening seconds of the second round of their fight in 2005.  Martin had dominated the first round, but shot in for a takedown and paid for it.  Jason Lambert then scored a victory over Martin by TKO last year at UFC 59.  Outside of those two fights, Martin has racked up 14 wins, going the distance only in his first professional bout.  Martin has devastating power in his punches, and is a grinder when he scores a takedown.  This will mark his debut at 185 pounds, as he has fought at 205 for most of his career.

Rivera: “El Conquistador” was last seen on season four of “The Ultimate Fighter”, where he lost by decision to Patrick Cote during the season, and scored a quick TKO victory over Edwin Dewees on the finale.  Rivera is well rounded, though he prefers to strike.  He has definitely fought tougher competition than Martin, having squared off against David Loiseau, Lee Murray, Travis Lutter, Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, and Chris Leben.  Rivera is 14-5 overall, with a 3-3 record in the UFC.

Breakdown:  This is an interesting matchup.  Martin probably has the power advantage, but Rivera comes in with five inches on his opponent.  Should Martin score a takedown, however, that could prove to nullify the height advantage, and give Martin more to work with should he choose to try for a submission.  However, both men prefer to strike, and that should make for some fireworks in this one.  Martin holds the edge in power, but Rivera is hardly weak in his own right, having outstruck David Loiseau in his UFC debut.  But Martin has fought at 205, and has been in there with some sluggers.  I don’t see Rivera being able to stop Martin on the feet, and Martin holds a big advantage on the mat.

Prediction: Martin by TKO in round 3.

PATRICK “THE PREDATOR” COTE vs. SCOTT “HANDS OF STEEL” SMITH (Middleweight)

Cote: Patrick Cote is another TUF 4 veteran, having reached the finals only to lose by armbar to Travis Lutter in a little over two minutes.  Cote is another who is winless in the Octagon, but has not lost outside of the UFC.  He is 8-4 overall and 0-4 in the UFC, having lost to Tito Ortiz, Joe Doerksen, Chris Leben, and Lutter.  Cote can be dangerous on the ground, but has also been known to strike, scoring three victories each by TKO and submission.  Anyone that goes three rounds with Tito Ortiz has to know a little something about wrestling, and Cote definitely fits that category.

Smith: Scott Smith is a former WEC champion at 205 pounds, and the “Hands of Steel” moniker is fitting, as the Californian has eight wins by knockout in his 10-2 career.  Most recently we saw Smith defeat Pete Sell in one of the more memorable fights of 2006, where Smith was buckled by a body punch (as Joe Rogan said, he was hurt baaaadly), only to land a perfectly timed right hand directly to the jaw of Sell, scoring the knockout.  Smith does have some wrestling skills, as he showed decent takedown defense against David Terrell in his Octagon debut, and he is much more adept on the feet than he is on the canvas, as we saw during the fourth season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, where Smith was quickly submitted by Travis Lutter.

Breakdown: There is no question that Smith will look to keep this fight standing, and that’s where he’s got his best chance to win.  He is an explosive striker who packs some big power in his fists.  Cote is a potent striker as well, but his advantage in this fight is on the ground.  Cote has been tested in long fights, and has fought tougher competition than Smith has.  He’s been in a few fights that have gone three rounds, and has been to the fifth round once as well.  Smith, in 12 fights, has seen the second round exactly once (in the victory over Sell.)  If Cote can get deep into the second round, Smith’s cardio will be tested.  He may have the gas tank to fight at his preferred fast pace for three rounds…we just don’t know.  My head says that Cote is the logical choice here, but my gut won’t leave Smith alone.  I think he scores the knockout early in the second.

Prediction: Smith by TKO in round 2.

QUINTON “RAMPAGE” JACKSON vs. MARVIN “THE BEASTMAN” EASTMAN (Light Heavyweight)

Jackson: Finally, “Rampage” will step into the Octagon on Saturday night.  His resume speaks for itself.  Since 2003, Jackson has lost only to Wanderlei Silva (twice) and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.  Oh, and he also knocked out Chuck Liddell.  If you hadn’t heard that already, plan on hearing it for the next few months as Jackson is hyped for a title shot against the mohawked one.  Jackson is a wrestler with devastating slams, and his punching power is beyond reproach.  He is susceptible to strikes himself, however, against top competition (namely Silva and Rua). 

Eastman: Marvin Eastman has seen action in the UFC before, having lost to Travis Lutter and Vitor Belfort in his previous outings.  This fight was originally scheduled to take place in the WFA, where both men saw their last action (Jackson with a win over Matt Lindland, and Eastman with a Draw against Jorge Oliveira), but we all know how that turned out.  Eastman is 13-6-1 overall, but has stumbled in large part when facing top competition.  In addition to his UFC losses, he has fallen to Rich Franklin, Vernon White, and Jason Lambert.  Eastman can strike, but he is also a wrestler at heart and looks to control his fights, finding windows to strike when he can.

Breakdown: Some maintain that Jackson has lost a step since his losses to Silva, but I don’t buy it.  Jackson is still under 30, and he’s got a long way to go before he’s forced to slow down.  His uninspiring win over Dong Sik Yoon notwithstanding, I think Jackson still has it, and he’ll tell the story with his fists and knees on Saturday night.  This is actually a rematch from early in both men’s careers, as Eastman won a decision over Jackson at the fourth King of the Cage event in 2000.  Jackson is at least as good a wrestler as Eastman is, and he holds a decisive advantage in striking.  Jackson knows that this is his first appearance on the biggest MMA stage in the world, and he’ll be looking to impress.  Having fought Eastman before, I can’t imagine that he will underestimate his opponent like Heath Herring or Jens Pulver.  If Jackson gets Eastman on the ground via slam or shoot, Eastman will be pounded out.  If it stays on the feet, Eastman will be knocked out, probably by knees.  On paper, this has the potential to go the distance, but I don’t see Jackson allowing that to happen.

Prediction: Jackson by TKO in round 2.

MIRKO “CRO COP” FILIPOVIC vs. EDDIE SANCHEZ (Heavyweight)

Filipovic: Where do you even start with the Croatian Sensation?  The 2006 Pride Open Weight Grand Prix champion has faced a who’s who of fighters, and more often than not, he has emerged victorious.  His only losses have come at the hands of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Kevin Randleman, Fedor Emelianenko, and Mark Hunt.  Cro Cop’s kicks are the stuff of legend.  If you want three examples of how deadly they are, look at his victories over Hidehiko Yoshida (leg kicks), Ibragim Magomedov (liver kick), and most recently, Wanderlei Silva (the legendary head kick).  Since 2002, only two men have taken the invincible Fedor Emelianenko to a decision—Nogueira and Filipovic.  So to say that the Croatian’s game is one-dimensional is just silly.  Cro Cop obviously prefers to strike, as he is one of the world’s elite strikers.  But rest assured that he can hold his own on the mat if called upon to do so.

Sanchez: Eddie Sanchez debuted in the UFC with an impressive knockout win over jiu-jitsu ace Mario Neto.  During the pre-fight interviews, Sanchez repeatedly touted his big right hand, and sure enough, that’s what won the fight for him.  Sanchez is 6-0 in MMA, with five of those victories coming via strikes.  He has yet to go the distance in any fight.

Breakdown:  Pardon me if I didn’t spend as much time talking about Sanchez as I did Cro Cop, but seriously, folks.  Sanchez is a striker.  Give me a list of people in the world who prefer standup that have a chance against the Croatian.  Mark Hunt?  I’ll give you that one.  But who else?  Mirko can hold his own on the ground, as I said before, but he won’t need to here.  And I can’t imagine him underestimating his opponent either, as anyone who has watched Pride’s Total Elimination 2004 event can still hear the words “Kevin Randleman has knocked out Mirko Cro Cop!!!” in their heads.  That loss stands as his only one that came via strikes.  By no means will Filipovic come in unprepared, and by no means will he be caught with the overhand right by Sanchez.  This will end quickly and brutally.

Prediction: Filipovic by KO in round 1.

JOHN “THE HURRICANE” HALVERSON vs. ROGER “EL MATADOR” HUERTA (Lightweight)

Halverson: John Halverson has a 13-4 overall record, with most of his victories coming due to strikes.  I’ve never personally seen Halverson fight, so I couldn’t speak too much concerning his skills.  All I know is that he’s fighting out of Iowa, he’s only gone the distance one time, and he has fought previously at welterweight. 

Huerta: “El Matador” is coming off of an impressive win at UFC 63 against the tough Jason Dent.  This was a very entertaining fight that saw Huerta show off his well rounded skill set in picking up the decision victory.  Huerta is a skilled striker who is quick and lethal on the mat as well.  He has been known to set up his takedowns with strikes, pounding or submitting his opponents on the ground once the fight gets there.  Clay Guida may have the cardio market cornered in the lightweight division (and maybe in every division), but Huerta has a motor as well.

Breakdown: Knowing so little about Halverson, it’s hard to say what he brings to the fight, other than some striking ability.  Having seen Huerta, however, I think this is going to be a showcase fight for him.  He may choose to stand and bang, or he may choose to take it to the mat.  Either way, judging by Halverson’s record and Huerta’s reputation, this looks to be a fight with some promise.  As for outcome, I see Huerta taking it and looking good in the process.

Prediction: Huerta by TKO in round 2.

MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

ANDERSON “THE SPIDER” SILVA vs. TRAVIS LUTTER

Silva: “The Spider” has made about as big an impact in two fights as is possible in the UFC, scoring brutal knockouts first of Chris Leben, then obviously of then champion Rich Franklin.  So in less than four minutes total, Anderson Silva is your middleweight champion.  At this point, even if you hadn’t seen him before his UFC debut, you know what he’s about.  Silva likes to strike, and he likes to do it from the clinch.  But don’t let that fool you.  Anderson Silva is a BJJ black belt, having studied under the Noguiera brothers, so he has skills on the ground.  Sure, he’s got a couple of submission losses, but one of them was by a flying scissor heel hook, which is one of the craziest submissions I’ve ever seen.  Silva is the real deal in all aspects of mixed martial arts, and he’s going to be around for a long, long time.

Lutter: Like Silva, it’s no secret what Lutter likes to do.  Seven of his nine wins have come via submission, and that’s his game.  Lutter can strike, but he’s hardly what you would consider a very good striker.  Lutter is 1-2 in the UFC and 9-3 overall.  His win in the UFC was a knockout of Marvin Eastman in 2004, and his two losses came against Trevor Prangley and Matt Lindland.  Since the loss to Prangley, Lutter has won three straight, all by armbar.  Most recently he won at the TUF 4 finals, submitting Patrick Cote.  This is the title fight he was promised as the winner of the show.

Breakdown: I see this one ending quickly and violently.  Lutter will probably feint a punch or two, go for a takedown, get stuffed, and eat some strikes.  At that point, Silva will pounce and end the fight.  I honestly can’t see how Lutter will be able to stop Silva from imposing his will in this fight.  Lutter could not dream of hanging with the champ on the feet, which is nothing to be ashamed of, mind you.  But the problem is that he also won’t be able to take Silva down.  And even if he were able to do so, he wouldn’t be able to keep the champion down.  At least not long enough to score a submission or grind out a controlling decision.  No, this one will go to the champion, who will again put on a Muay Thai clinic.

Prediction: Silva by TKO in round 1.

And that, my friends, is UFC 67.  Beat those picks if you can, but since they’re all right, I don’t see how you’ll be able to.  This doesn’t look like a supremely stellar night of fights on paper, but only time will tell how it works out.  And hey, if this card is no good, we’ve got what looks to be a fantastic card coming up with UFC 68.  But that’s neither here nor there.  I’ll be here as usual with blow-by-blow coverage on Saturday night, so until then, let’s have a look at some of the subplots of this year’s inaugural PPV event.

Fights with the heaviest title implications (besides Silva-Lutter, of course): Filipovic-Sanchez, Jackson-Eastman (but only if Cro Cop and Rampage win)

Shortest Fights: Filipovic-Sanchez, Silva-Lutter

Potential Fights of the Night: Cote-Smith, Martin-Rivera (and Filipovic-Sanchez for the highlight reel knockout)

Biggest Statements to Make: Mirko Filipovic, Quinton Jackson, Ryoto Machida, Terry Martin

Potential KO of the Night: Mirko Filipovic, Anderson Silva (tie)

Potential Submission of the Night: Surprisingly, I didn’t pick anyone to win by submission.  But if anyone does, it’ll probably be in a lightweight fight.  Let’s say potentially Huerta.

Most to Gain With a Win: Mirko Filipovic, Quinton Jackson, Travis Lutter, John Halverson, Eddie Sanchez

Most to Lose With a Loss: Anderson Silva, Quinton Jackson, Patrick Cote